Belarus Security Update – 04 December – 10 December 2023
BLUF
The posture of the Belarusian Armed Forces did not change last week.
Executive summary
Last week delivered several events in Belarus. Firstly, Lukahsneko embarked on foreign trips to China, the United Arab Emirates, and some African countries. He confirmed his willingness to deepen cooperation with China and African states as Minsk's access to Western markets is curtailed by sanctions.
Russia ratified an agreement on joint training centres, which paved the way for deeper military cooperation between the two states. In the meantime, Belarus is slowly moving with developing infrastructure to support Southern Operational Command. In MAY22, Minsk announced the creation of a new command. However, since then, little has been done towards this objective.
The Belarusian Armed Forces visibly increased their training activities last week. This change came as the uniformed services commenced planned training activities for the recently launched new academic year - 2023/2024 (started on 01DEC).
Elements of the Russian Armed Forces deployed in Belarus were almost invisible throughout the week. Nonetheless, data confirming the creation of the local department of the Russian Investigative Committee appeared in open sources.
On the other hand, the Wagner PMC personnel likely continued joint training action with the servicemen of the Belarusian Internal Troops.
Political developments
3-9DEC2023 – The foreign visits of the Belarusian President
Last week, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko started a series of foreign visits on Sunday (03DEC) when he departed for China.
A day later (04DEC), Lukashenko led a Belarusian delegation (several officials, including the Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Alenik) that met with representatives of the Chinese leadership in the Diaoyutai Residence, including the Secretary General of the Chinese Communist Party, Xi Jinping. According to the official statement, the negotiations pertained to trade, economic, investment and international cooperation and lasted three times longer than planned.
During the talks, the Belarusian President referred to the earlier meetings of both officials, pointing out their outcomes in strategic decisions and significant advancements in bilateral cooperation, which Lukashenko hoped could still be deepened. He also emphasised that both presidents should discuss the speed of implementing joint measures.
In conclusion, the Belarusian leader commended the Chinese One Belt One Road initiative (initiated by Xi Jinping in 2013), noting that it was uniting its members with a shared goal, distinguishing it from Western measures aimed at "dividing everything and everyone."
On the other hand, Xi Jinping discussed the development of bilateral relations between both countries. He acknowledged that under Lukashenko's "strong rule", Belarus had successfully mitigated various negative factors, achieving stability and economic growth, providing a foundation for the state's future development. Xi Jinping also remarked on the evolving global situation, emphasising China's readiness to enhance cooperation with Belarus as part of the strategic partnership.
After the meeting with Xi Jinping, the Belarusian President visited Beijing University and met with the Deputy Chairman of the International Affairs Commission, Hao Ping. He noted that both countries had agreed on increasing communication between Belarusians and Chinese people, especially regarding the youth.
On Friday (08DEC), the Belarusian President took part in his second foreign visit. On this day, he visited the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and met with his local counterpart, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan.
The meeting occurred in bin Zayed al-Nahyan's private residence and lasted about two hours. According to the official statement, it had a "home and family" format, which explains the presence of two Lukashenko’s sons – Viktor and Nikolay.
Nevertheless, only a limited number of details linked to the course of the meeting appeared in public. It likely mostly pertained to economic issues, especially since the UAE is the third biggest investor in the Belarusian economy in 2023. Officially, both presidents checked the implementation of joint measures initiated during their last meeting in FEB22.
A day later (09DEC), the Belarusian President began his visit to Africa and arrived in Equatorial Guinea.
After his arrival, the Belarusian leader participated in official talks with his local counterpart, Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, held in the Palace of the People in Malabo.
Their first part lasted about 90 min and engaged only both officials. According to published footage, Lukashenko praised Equatorial Guinea and noted that the state had enormous potential despite its small size. He also offered advice to his counterpart, asserting that Equatorial Guinea should avoid importing things that can be produced domestically.
Later presidents participated in the "wider" format meeting attended by several representatives of each side. Notably, the Chairman of the Belarusian Military-Political Committee, Dmitry Pantus, was a member of the Belarusian delegation.
During the second meeting, Mbasogo honoured Lukashenko with one of the highest state awards of the country, the Order of Independence of Equatorial Guinea. On the other hand, the Belarusian leader primarily spoke about the current role of Equatorial Guinea. After emphasising the beauty of its territory, he highlighted Guinean international efforts to support African unity and reform the United Nations Security Council to reflect the role of Africa. Lukashenko asserted that Guinea remains a friend of Belarus and conveyed that Belarus could support the state, similar to the assistance provided to Zimbabwe (the sale of tractors, combine harvesters and trucks).
The Belarusian leader underscored the capabilities of Belarusian companies in the sphere of infrastructure development and provision of transportation. However, he emphasised that Belarus would support Guinea as a friend, not a "coloniser". The Belarusian leader informed that Belarus would soon open its embassy in Malabo, while Guinea plans to establish its diplomatic mission in Minsk by the end of 2024.
Additionally, the Belarusian leader mentioned that both states had reached several agreements. Belarus would establish a hub in Africa to promote Belarusian products in local markets. It also committed to providing medical studies for Guinean students at its universities.
Military developments
04-07DEC2023 – The Belarusian delegation during the EDEX-2023
Last week, the Belarusian delegation, including the Commander of the Belarusian Air Force and Air Defence Forces, Maj. Gen. Andrey Lukyanovich and at least two more senior officers participated in the third “EDEX-2023” military equipment exhibition in Cairo.
The Belarusian officials’ visit sought to develop bilateral military cooperation with Egypt. During its course, Lukyanovich met with commanders of the Egyptian Air Force (Air Marshal Mahmoud Foaad Abd El-Gawad) and Air Defence Forces (Lt. Gen. Mohamed Hegazy). According to the official MoD statement, he discussed potential agreements linked to joint combat training activities and deepening the bilateral military cooperation in air defence.
05DEC2023 – The new Belarusian training ground
On Tuesday (05DEC), the Belarusian MotolkoHelp team published an analysis linked to the development of the Belarusian military infrastructure for the Southern Operational Command (OC) needs.
MotolkoHelp confirmed that the ground will be placed between the Gomel and Rechitsa regions and will be 200 square kilometres, which means it will likely be a combined arms training ground. Based on the existing railway infrastructure, authors of the text pointed out its four potential localisations:
1. The forest between Stolnya-1/Stolnya-2/Zasele and Borhov villages;
2. The forest east of Borhov and near Yakimovka;
4. The forest near Nagornoye, Rudnya Zhigalskaya and Vasilevo;
According to MotolkoHelp, sites no. 2 and 3 seem to be the most probable, mainly due to their location (presence of the roads and railway infrastructure) and the fact that they had earlier been used by the Soviet Armed Forces - the infrastructure used by the former 404th Air Defence Regiment (partially) remained in those locations.
05DEC2023 – Russia ratified an agreement on joint combat centres
On Tuesday (5DEC), the Russian State Duma officially ratified the Russo-Belarusian agreement on creating and functioning joint combat training centres.
The document regulates the creation and functioning of the centres but also identifies the main tasks and procedures for their support. Both sides signed an agreement on 28MAR23. The Belarusian side finished its implementation on 17JUL23.
Currently, there are likely two such centres in Belarus. The first is based on the 61st Fighter Aviation Base (Baranovichi) and trains Su-30SM crews. The second is based on the 1st Air Defence Regiment (Labno) and is responsible for preparing S-400 air defence system’s crews.
On the same day (5DEC), the United States extended its sanctions against organisations and people remaining in cooperation with Belarusian military-political leadership.
The Office of the Foreign Assets Control of the U.S. Department of the Treasury provided a list of eight business representatives (including the Head of the Belarusian Red Cross Society, Dmitry Shevtsov) and almost 12 companies.
One of the mentioned companies is directly linked with the production of military-like equipment. This refers to Belomo Holding, known for its optoelectronic equipment (scopes, binoculars, night vision, etc.).
05DEC2023 – Polonez to be delivered to Cuba
The Belarusian Military-Political Review once again informed about Cuban interest related to the potential purchase of Polonez MLR systems. On Tuesday (05DEC), the news outlet quoted unofficial Cuban data claiming that Cuban crews had already commenced Polonez training in Belarus. A day later (06DEC), the same source claimed that Moscow showed interest in purchasing the Belarusian-made Burevestnik-MK UAVs.
We have not been able to verify either of this information, but the reports that Cuban soldiers have been training in Belarus seem to be far-fetched.
05-09DEC2023 – The activity of the Belarusian military diplomats
Over the past seven days, personnel of the Belarusian International Military Cooperation Department (IMCD) took part in several events.
On Tuesday (05DEC), about 20 IMCD representatives, including its head, Col. Valery Revenko, participated in a solemn farewell of Col. Anatoly Pentkovsky, who had served for 16 years in positions related to international arms control.
Also on Tuesday, Revenko informed that the Belarusian delegation, supervised by his deputy, Col. Dmitry Ryabikhin, departed to Kazakhstan to participate in the 18th meeting of the Expert Working Group of the Ministers of Defence Council of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).
The event occurred a day later (06DEC). During its course, Belarusian representatives discussed planned actions for 2024.
On Thursday (07DEC), Ravenko went to Moscow, where he met with the Secretary of the Defence Ministers Council of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Maj. Gen. Yuri Dashkin. According to the official statement, parties discussed the military-political aspects of multilateral military cooperation in CIS format and summed up joint activities in 2023. As noted, the Belarusian delegation (including two more senior officers) expressed readiness to host the next meeting of the CIS Defence Ministers Council on Belarusian soil (second quarter of 2024).
A day later (08DEC), Revenko and at least one more senior officer attended the coordination meeting of the CIS members related to military cooperation. The event also occurred in Moscow and engaged up to 30 officials, usually two from each member state and several more Russian Armed Forces representatives. During its course, participants discussed the implementation of the CIS Military Cooperation Concept for 2023 and other issues related to the joint work. They also made several agreements on future cooperation in this format. It is unclear what these agreements pertained to.
Officially, Revenko presented the Belarusian point of view on a joint work plan for the next year and assessed the general development of military cooperation until 2030.
Besides, it can be added that IMCD representatives participated in the Katyusha International Festival held in the Central House of the Russian Army in Moscow on Saturday (09DEC).
06-07DEC2023 – Domestic Belarusian conferences
Aside from the events held abroad, Belarusian military representatives also attended two events held in Belarus.
The first one occurred on Wednesday (06DEC). This refers to the joint Russo-Belarusian forum “Youth for the Union State” attended by the Deputy Minister of Defence for Ideological Work, Maj. Gen. Leonid Kasinsky.
During the event, Kasinsky primarily discussed history and the current security situation around Belarus. According to him, Belarusian and Russian youth can be "targeted" by those (certain states) who dismantled the Soviet Union and were attempting to influence relations between former post-Soviet countries and rewrite their shared history. These measures were intended to negatively impact national values and indirectly weaken the defence capabilities of the state.
Kasinsky asserted that Belarusian youth should contemplate what they could do for their homeland. However, he also emphasised that not everyone needs to protect their state with a "weapon in hand". He said patriotism was correlated with the state's future and should be demonstrated daily.
The second event, the International Scientific-Practical Conference dedicated to the 75th anniversary of adopting the United Nations Convention “On Prevention and Punishment of Genocide”, occurred a day later (07DEC). It involved Kasinsky, the Belarusian State Security Council Secretary, Lt. Gen. Alexander Volfovich, and the Belarusian Minister of Defence, Lt. Gen. Viktor Khrenin.
In his speech, Volfovich mostly referred to the current activities of the Western states noting the ongoing radicalisation of political regimes and the rebirth of fascism and neo-Nazism. According to him, certain states were spreading barbarism and vandalism in the sphere of historical memory by destroying the monuments of their liberators and renaming the streets. According to the Secretary of the Belarusian State Security Council, they were using the cover of democracy to implement the abovementioned measures and were rewriting the history of WWII.
The Head of the Belarusian Ministry of Defence made similar statements. Initially, Khrenin highlighted the role of historical memory, stating that it is "especially important in the context of escalating global tensions around the world". He also emphasized that many Western states have forgotten the tragic lessons from the past and the great compatriots who directly fought against Nazism.
Transitioning to contemporary times, the Head of the Belarusian MoD accused the United States and their "satellites" of measures intended to maintain a unipolar world order. According to him, these actions were destroying the global security system by initiating colour revolutions and armed conflicts on all continents. They also interfered in the affairs of independent states worldwide.
Following this, Khrenin claimed that "cave Russophobia" had overwhelmed many European countries, even those who positioned themselves as examples of democracy. He also expressed regret over the fact that some countries, which also suffered from Nazism, were "betraying their past" for the sake of momentary benefits from "world powers".
On the other hand, the Belarusian Minister of Defence spoke about historical memory. He noted that the memory of WWII was a part of the state's national idea and stressed that Belarusian society had no place for collaborators or manifestations of nationalism or xenophobia. He noted that Belarus implemented state programs to perpetuate the memory of the defenders of the fatherland and increased the number of military-patriotic classes and clubs in schools.
Military exercises
04-09DEC2023 – The training activity of the Belarusian Armed Forces
Over the past seven days, the Belarusian Armed Forces started their training actions planned for the new military academic year (2023/2024) started on 01DEC.
On Monday (04DEC), the Belarusian MoD officially announced the start of the scheduled combat readiness training.
Training classes usually lasted about three days to prepare soldiers to act when their formations (units) were transferring from peace to wartime structures. They also included combat coordination measures.
The first such classes likely occurred on Tuesday (05DEC) in the 377th Air Defence Regiment.
A day later (06DEC), they appeared in the mechanised and air defence formations and units. On this day, they engaged personnel of the unspecified tank battalion (19th Mechanised Brigade), 310th Artillery Group (120th Mechanised Brigade), and the 1st Air Defence Regiment and 120th Air Defence Brigade.
The 103rd Airborne Brigade could have also taken part in such classes. Soldiers of this formation trained issues of the engineering reconnaissance at the Losvido Training Ground. However, the exact date of the drill has not been confirmed.
On Thursday (07DEC), combat readiness classes started in the Minsk Military Commandant’s Office and 6th and 19th Mechanised Brigades. During their course, soldiers of the latter formation prepared a vehicle reception point.
A day later (08DEC), tests ended in the 11th Mechanised and 49th Radiotechnical Brigades.
Subsequently (08DEC), a notable training event occurred in the 51st Artillery Brigade. It pertains to practical training related to the organisation of communications using (recently inducted) mobile satellite communication kits. According to available data, drills engaged several subunits, which used satellite-provided internet to transfer data between them.
On Tuesday (05DEC), the Belarusian VoenTV informed about training flights of the 50th Mixed Aviation Base (Machulischy). According to the base commander, Col. Vladimir Skorin, flights occurred day and night and focused on training 1st and 2nd rank crews of Mi-8, Mi-24, Mi-35M and Il-76.
A day later (06DEC), servicemen of the 5th Spetsnaz Brigade likely underwent “psychological obstacle training classes”.
04-10DEC2023 – Noteworthy movements of Belarusian military equipment
Last week, only two ground movements of the Belarusian military equipment were noteworthy. Both of them occurred on Thursday (07DEC).
This refers to two BTR APCs with an MAZ truck moving between Yelsk and Mazyr and at least two Bogatyr vehicles moving on the M8 highway near Buda-Kashalova.
Russian military activity in Belarus
Last week, elements of the Russian Armed Forces deployed in Belarus presented limited activity. Unofficial sources reported two ground movements of single trucks in Mazyr. They occurred on Monday (04DEC) and Friday (08DEC). As noted, the first vehicle was marked with a V-latter, while the second had a ZOV sign.
On Thursday (07DEC), the Belarusian Hajun military monitoring team provided its updated assessments on the presence of the Russian troops in Belarus. They noted no major changes and assessed that still about 2,000 Russian service members were deployed in Baranovichi, Velyky Bokov and Zyabrovka Air Bases (airfields, 500-600 men in total), as well as “Baranovichi” radiotechnical and 43rd (“Vileyka”) communication nodes (up to 1,450 men in total).
Interestingly, a day later (08DEC), the source confirmed that the Russian Investigative Committee created a military investigative department in Belarus on 16JUN. Hajun defines it as the 484th Military Investigation Department in Ozerische and is subordinated to the Russian Strategic Missile Forces.
Wagner PMC activity in Belarus
Last week, only two pieces of data related to the Wagner PMC mercenaries stationing in Belarus appeared.
On Wednesday (06DEC), the Telegram channel likely associated with the organisation members suggested that mercenaries continued their training with the servicemen of the Belarusian Internal Troops. However, the provided footage was most likely recorded during the recently finished fourth special-tactical course organised for Internal Troops soldiers.
A day later (07DEC), the Belarusian Hajun team stated that the number of Wagner personnel in Belarus does not exceed 500.
Comment
Numerous foreign visits by Alexander Lukashenko might be one of the indicators of Belarus's deteriorating economic situation, especially since the United States is expanding sanctions against Minsk. The fact that Lukashenko went to Africa does not testify about Belarus's position on the continent. But it confirms that the Belarusian leadership is isolated internationally due to its involvement in the Russian-Ukrainian war and forceful way of dealing with protests after the 2020 presidential elections.
The activities of the Belarusian military diplomacy mostly had a summarising character and resulted from the upcoming end of 2023. Currently, it seems unlikely that Belarus will provide Polonez systems to Cuba. Firstly, the Belarusian Armed Forces field only a limited number of Polonez. Secondly, Belarus does not produce all of its components domestically. However, the presence of the Belarusian State Military-Industrial Complex, Dmitry Pantus, during Lukashenko’s visit to Equatorial Guinea may indicate Belarusian interest in providing less sophisticated (post-Soviet) weapons to African states.
The training activity of the Belarusian troops was standard. Reported training actions resulted from the training plan for the current academic year and focused on preparing (mostly) conscripts to act in case of raising the degree of combat readiness in their formations.
The public procurement data used to confirm the ongoing creation of the new training ground suggests that it will have a combined arms character (akin to the 227th and 230th Combined Arms Training Grounds) and will be directly subordinated to the new Southern Operational Command.
Available information on the Russian Armed Forces and Wagner PMC presence suggests that the number of Russian troops and mercenaries in Belarus stabilised. The formation of the local body of the Russian Investigation Committee is a logical step resulting from the constant presence of about 2,000 Russian soldiers in Belarus. The agreement's ratification related to the joint Russo-Belarusian training centres can be considered a “formality”, but it also allows us to expect more direct military cooperation.