Belarus Security Update – 04 March – 10 March 2024
BLUF
Last week, no changes in the posture of the Belarusian Armed Forces took place.
Executive summary
The last week delivered some noteworthy developments regarding the overall military-political situation.
Firstly, Belarus adopted a new legal act regulating the transfer of state bodies to work during wartime. Secondly, activities associated with establishing Territorial Defence Forces (TDF) were conducted throughout the country on a mass scale, engaging local authorities and military commissariats. Additionally, there were reports about an upcoming delivery of new military equipment to the Belarusian Armed Forces, along with data regarding the extension of the military’s mission to protect the country’s border with Ukraine.
On the other hand, Belarusian military representatives demonstrated a moderate level of involvement, primarily directed towards international initiatives.
Speaking about training activities, it is essential to note that training events relatively evenly involved various functional components of the Belarusian Armed Forces. They included military unit inspections, staff training, and planned training gatherings dedicated to selected service branches. Interestingly, Belarusian soldiers also participated in training based on the Russian military infrastructure.
In general, no noteworthy actions were taken by the Russian soldiers deployed in Belarus. Nevertheless, a Russian An-124 heavy transport aircraft arrived in Belarus for the second time this year.
Over the past seven days, the situation regarding the Wagner PMC mercenaries was again unchanged. There were no reports about their activities last week.
Political developments
04MAR2024 – The legislation change
The aforementioned legislative change took place on Monday (04MAR) and resulted from the presidential approval of the decree regulating the transfer of state bodies to work during wartime.
Alexander Lukashenko adopted the document, which officially regulates the exact procedure of such transfer and ensures the effectiveness and coordination of the process. The document’s provisions apply to various bodies and organisations, including the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly, the National Assembly, and the Constitutional and Supreme Courts. According to the official statement, the decree also introduced the possibility of assigning military ranks to heads of the selected bodies in case of martial law.
Military developments
04-07MAR2024 – Various developments in the Belarusian Armed Forces
Throughout the previous week, there was a notable influx of information regarding the functioning of the Belarusian Armed Forces. The details encompassed their ongoing and prospective activities and the anticipated arrival of new military equipment.
On Monday (04MAR), the Belarusian Hajun military monitoring team reported about a public procurement of the Belarusian Special Operation Forces (SOF) Command, suggesting that involvement of the Belarusian Armed Forces in border protection will last until the end of 2024. The hypothesis was based on the order for cloth washing services between 26FEB2024 and 31DEC2024 that would be carried out in the Gomel region. Although the exact location of the ordered service was not specified, it corresponds with the deployment locations of Belarusian SOF troops, who are currently involved in the protection of the Russian servicemen and their assets (1530th Air Defence Regiment of the 25th Air Defence Division) remaining at Velyky Bokov and Zyabrovka airfields.
Two days later (06MAR), Ukrainian military expert Konstantin Mashovets addressed the issue of the Belarusian border’s protection and provided data on the current deployment of Belarusian subunits in the vicinity of Ukraine.
According to his data, the following elements were deployed in the border areas as of last week:
Two air assault battalions of the 38th Air Assault Brigade in the areas Uzhovo and Pinsk, as well as Lelchytsy-Brahin-Zyabrovka;
Two combined detachments (likely battalion-sized) of the 5th Spetsnaz Brigade near Ivanovo and Pribolovichi;
Tactical group of the 51st Artillery Brigade (at least one/two batteries up to the whole battalion) in the area south of Gomel;
MLRS battery of the 336th Reactive Artillery Brigade (Polonez or Smerch-equipped) near Zyabrovka;
Mashovets claimed that these forces included about 1,800 soldiers, 68-70 armoured vehicles, 22-24 artillery assets and three or four MLR systems.
On Thursday (08MAR), the Western Operational Command (OC) Telegram channel informed about the upcoming delivery of the new BTR-82A APCs to a formation under its command. Such delivery could potentially involve another battalion set of vehicles. It is still unclear which unit will receive the vehicles. The 6th Mechanised Brigade already operates one BTR-82A battalion, while the 11th Mechanised Brigade is still exclusively equipped with BMP-2 IFVs.
On the same day (08MAR), members of already quoted Belarusian Hajun observed another procurement data suggesting an upcoming TDF exercise. According to them, drills would occur in the MAR-APR period at the territory of the Voronovsky region and will possibly engage at least 83 reserve servicemen.
Simultaneously, the Belarusian Flagshtok news outlet reported about one more public procurement for the provision of “SMS summons” by Belarusian mobile operators. Interestingly, it even included the samples of the messages:
In case of data clarification: “You have to arrive by <date> to clarify military registration data at the <location> military commissariat.”
In case of mobilisation training: “You have to arrive by <date> for military training at the <location>.”
In case of mobilisation: “You have to immediately report to the address indicated in your mobilisation order.”
04-07MAR2024 – The international activities of Belarusian military representatives
Over the past seven days, Belarusian Armed Forces representatives participated in four international events. However, only one of them took place in Belarus.
It pertains to the visit of the Uzbekistan Armed Forces delegation led by the Chief of the Uzbekistan General Staff, Maj. Gen. Shukhrat Kholmukhamedov on Monday (04MAR). At the outset of the visit, Kholmukhamedov had met with his Belarusian counterpart, Maj. Gen. Viktor Gulevich. Officially, both generals had discussed bilateral relations between their states and ways to intensify them. Later, the Chief of the Uzbekistan General Staff had taken part in a meeting with the Belarusian Minister of Defence, Lt. Gen. Viktor Khrenin. During its course, he was briefed about the political-military situation in the Eastern European region and spoke about the challenges and threats present in Central Asia.
Two Belarusian delegations left their state on the same day (04MAR). The first, led by the Head of the International Military Cooperation Department (IMCD), Maj. Gen. Valery Revenko arrived to the Equatorial Guinea. The latter, including the First Deputy Chief of Belarusian General Staff, Maj. Gen. Andrey Matievich (but also Deputy Head of the IMCD, Col. Dmitry Ryabikhin) started its participation in the DIMDEX-2024 military exhibition in Doha.
Revenko met with the local Minister of Defence Div. Gen. Victoriano Bibang Nsue Okomo on the first day of his visit to Malabo. He also participated in the bilateral commission meeting on international military cooperation, which identified potential areas of cooperation between Belarus and Equatorial Guinea. On Tuesday (05MAR), the Head of the IMCD visited unspecified military formations of the local armed forces.
On Wednesday (06MAR), during the DIMDEX-2024, Ryabikhin met with the Qatari Head of the Department for Work with Military Attaches, Col. Nasser Ali Al-Thani. According to the official statement, their meeting pertained to the international agenda, the current state of bilateral military relations between Belarus and Qatar, and directions for its future development.
On the same day (06MAR), another unspecified delegation of the Belarusian Armed Forces participated in the seminar on military medicine dedicated to the members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in Islamabad.
06-08MAR2024 – The domestic activities of Belarusian military representatives
In the previous week, the “domestic” activity of the Belarusian Armed Forces’ officials was quite limited. This was mainly due to Woman’s Day (08MAR) celebrations that occurred later in the week, which actively engaged most Belarusian service members and military units. Nevertheless, it is possible to highlight three noteworthy initiatives.
On Wednesday (06MAR), the Head of the Main Combat Training Directorate, Maj. Gen. Alexander Bas personally participated in the methodological gathering dedicated to Belarusian service members who recently underwent training at the Russian 333rd Combat Training Center in Mulino. The event in Belarus occurred at the Lepelsky Training Ground and included demonstrations of fire and tactical training, tactical medicine, and the use of UAVs and explosives. Officially, special attention was paid to the autonomy of individual soldiers in combat. Published materials confirmed that the event engaged at least 50 service members trained in Russia.
At the same time (06MAR), the Belarusian MoD informed about the start of the inspection of the 85th Communications Brigade. According to the official statement, it was led by the commission composed of the Main Military Inspection servicemen and included the head of the body, Gen. Andrey Gorbatenko. As noted, the actions were intended to assess the functioning of the formation in all areas, encompassing daily operations, the quantity and condition of fielded equipment, and combat and mobilisation readiness. Throughout the process, brigade members also underwent various control sessions related to tactical and special, fire, ideological, and physical training. However, the end date of the inspection was not pointed out.
Besides, a day later (07MAR), Deputy Minister of Defence for Ideological Work, Maj. Gen. Leonid Kasinsky briefly commented on the current political-military situation in Belarus. He asserted that destabilisation attempts were reported during the recent Belarusian electoral campaign. However, they were thwarted thanks to the cohesive actions of the security forces. Kasinsky referred to Western involvement, emphasising the shared foundation and unity among the security forces and observed that servicemen were working cohesively to prevent threats.
Discussing the evolving military situation around Belarus, Kasinsky noted the need to remain vigilant, citing signs of increased military potential in NATO countries and Western neighbours. He underscored the importance of identifying early signs of risks transforming into threats to national security and taking timely measures. The Deputy Head of the Belarusian Ministry of Defence also stated that despite geopolitical challenges, Belarus remained under the reliable protection of the Russian Federation. Commenting on the arrest of saboteurs at the Belarusian-Ukrainian border, Kasinsky characterised such actions as attempts to spill blood and create chaos. He pointed out that sending saboteurs aimed to undermine Belarus’s main achievement – security.
The Head of the Main Ideological Work Department also spoke about the changing relations between Belarus and Western states. According to him, it was possible to directly point out a particular shift from “discreet actions” to “open intentions” of the Western states, who were currently openly discussing the preparation of militants in neighbouring countries for a violent overthrow of power in Belarus.
Kasinsky observed that the self-proclaimed “Western democracies” refrained from addressing these actions as violations of international law and established international norms. Addressing the provocations “orchestrated by Western politicians”, Kasinsky expressed confidence that Belarus would successfully overcome these challenges. However, he also observed that this madness and the inclination toward triggering a third world war would lead to nothing positive.
Military exercises
04-07MAR2024 – The centralised training activity
Last week, we reported no noteworthy training events among centrally subordinated formations and military units. However, mobilisation readiness classes that engaged several Belarusian executive committees and military commissariats must be mentioned.
They occurred between Monday (04MAR) and Thursday (07MAR), as per an annual plan (such drills are held in Belarus twice a year). Officially, they aimed to maintain the readiness of both Territorial Defence Forces reservists and the TDF command bodies and consolidate their cooperation with local authorities.
We were able to confirm that such training engaged civilian and military authorities from the following locations:
Mogilev Oblast (including the city of Mogilev, as well as the Mogilev and the Mstislavsky regions);
Grodno Oblast (including the Dyatlovsky, as well as the Ostrovets and Mostovsky regions);
Minsk Oblast (including the Minsk region);
However, activities likely took place in presumably all Belarusian oblasts.
On Tuesday (05MAR), the Military Commissariats of the Barysaw and Krupsky regions independently sent at least 13 reservists for planned reserve training classes.
04-07MAR2024 – The training activity of the Western Operational Command
Over the past seven days, training efforts of the formations (units) subordinated to the Western OC varied. Aside from dedicated training gatherings, it is possible to point out joint staff training, retraining classes, tactical exercises and even internal contests.
On Monday (04MAR), anti-air (sub)units started joint training gathering at the Domanovo Training Ground, led by the Chief of the Western OC’s Air Defence, Col. Pavel Gotovich. During its first day, an OSA-equipped battery began combat training classes involving two Mi-24 helicopters. Two days later (06MAR), the same range likely hosted training of the 6th Mechanised Brigade anti-air battalion’s elements. During their course, soldiers were responsible for searching air assets of a mock enemy. According to available data, drills involved at least a single UAV and were finished with the “excellent” mark. On Thursday (07MAR), the Domanovo Training Ground also hosted tactical training classes related to evacuation and first aid classes that engaged soldiers of the 147th Air Defence Regiment.
Interestingly, on Monday (04MAR), the Telegram channel of the 6th Mechanised Brigade informed about the ongoing training classes for formation snipers at the Russian 56th Training Center for Motor Rifle Troops. Two days later (06MAR), servicemen of the same brigade participated in the contest for the best sniper and sniper pair of the formation at the Gozhsky Training Ground.
On Tuesday (05MAR), personnel of the pontoon-bridge battalion of the 557th Engineering Brigade underwent control classes on tactical and special training. During their course, soldiers prepared three ferry crossings over the Neman River to transport 120 tonnes of equipment to its next bank. Classes likely occurred in their standard location – the area of Ploskovtsy village. Simultaneously, the 111th Artillery Brigade and 48th Electronic Warfare Battalion soldiers continued preparational firing classes before an unspecified shooting competition.
On Wednesday (06MAR), an unspecified mechanised company of the 11th Mechanised Brigade finished its tactical exercise with a “good” result at the Chepelevo Training Ground. Moreover, the 74th Communications Regiment staff participated in the joint staff training organised by the Chief of Communications of the Western Operational Command, Col. Stanislav Zakharevsky.
A day later (07MAR), the 74th Communications Regiment soldiers were involved in comprehensive combat readiness training that involved organising collection points of mobilisation resources. Moreover, service members of the engineering-technical battalion of the 557th Engineering Brigade took part in the control classes on special-tactical training, while drivers of the 11th Mechanised Brigade who were undergoing driving courses based on the Slonim DOSAAF (a paramilitary organisation promoting military service) started their final exams.
04-08MAR2024 – The training activity of the North-Western Operational Command
Training events engaging forces of the North-Western OC were mainly focused on artillery and tank subunits.
At least between Monday (04MAR) and Tuesday (05MAR), elements of the 191st Artillery Group (19th Mechanised Brigade, at least one 2S3 Akatsyia and one BM-21 Grad platoon) underwent a field exit, during which they participated in the training classes on military service safety, as well as practical training likely carried out without live firing.
On Wednesday (06MAR), personnel of the 356th or 358th Mechanised Battalion (120th Mechanised Brigade) took part in a complex tactical exercise with live ammo firing at the 227th Combined Arms Training Ground. Drills were aimed at repelling attacks of the mock enemy at nighttime as a part of combat coordination of the mechanised platoons.
A day later (07MAR), the exact range also hosted firing classes of an unspecified tank battalion of the 120th Mechanised Brigade. Moreover, at least a single 2S5 battery of the 231st Artillery Brigade arrived at the Osipovichi Training Ground to participate in the combat training classes.
On Friday (08MAR), service members of the 310th Artillery Group were involved in an unspecified field gathering and participated in the contest for the best military specialists in the unit.
04-09MAR2024 – The training activity of the Special Operation Forces
In the previous week, the training tempo of Belarusian Special Operation Forces formations slightly increased. However, training actions mainly engaged soldiers of either the 103rd Airborne or 5th Spetsnaz Brigades.
On Monday (04MAR), the first formation service members were involved in ground parachute training to prepare them for jumps from An-2 and Il-76 aircraft and Mi-8 helicopters. Two days later (06MAR), a single airborne company of the 103rd Airborne Brigade started a complex exercise with parachute jumps (from a Mi-8 helicopter) over the Losvido Training Ground. On Thursday (07MAR), the range hosted combat coordination of an unspecified battalion tactical group (BTG). On Friday (08MAR), artillery subunits of the BTG participated in combat training classes with live ammo firing.
Speaking about the training efforts of the 5th Spetsnaz Brigade’s soldiers, theoretical and practical training classes related to their military speciality reportedly commenced on Tuesday (05MAR).
05-10MAR2024 – The training activity of the Air Force and Air Defence Forces
Last week, forces subordinated to the Air Force and Air Defence Forces Command presented a moderate training tempo.
On Tuesday (05MAR), at least a dozen soldiers of the 56th Communications Regiment participated in tactical training classes combined with live ammo firing.
Two days later (07MAR), firing classes at the Gozhsky Training Ground likely engaged service members of the 2nd Air Defence Battalion of the 1st Air Defence Regiment. Simultaneously, the 116th Assault Aviation Base (Lida) hosted planned training flights engaging all types of their air assets – Su-25 close air support aircraft, Yak-130 advanced jet trainer/light combat aircraft, and L-39 training aircraft.
According to data from Belarusian Hajun, Belarusian air assets presented particular activity on Wednesday (06MAR), when training flights were held in all Belarusian air bases. Interestingly, at least a single Mi-24 helicopter flew from Machulishy to Baranovichi air bases every day for a week.
06MAR2024 – Noteworthy movements of Belarusian military equipment
Over the past seven days, it is possible to point out a single noteworthy ground movement of Belarusian military equipment.
This refers to at least three Iskander-M launchers and the same number of transport-loading vehicles accompanied by a single command-staff vehicle moving between Puchovichi and Osipovichi on Wednesday (06MAR).
Such transfer is likely an indicator of the ongoing (or upcoming) drills of the 465th Missile Brigade.
Russian military activity in Belarus
Last week, only two ground movements of Russian Armed Forces’ military equipment were reported in Belarus. Also, on Wednesday (06MAR), an unspecified Kamaz-based communications vehicle was moving in Mazyr. A day later (07MAR), a Russian KrAZ truck was also in the same city.
On Sunday (10MAR), a Russian An-124 aircraft landed at Baranovichi Air Base. After almost ten hours, it departed towards Rzhev. According to the Belarusian Hajun team, it was the second arrival of the An-124 heavy transport aircraft to Belarus this year (the first was reported on 04MAR). However, the purpose of the visit still is unclear.
The data provided by Konstantin Mashovets indicated that three Russian fighters (Su-30 or Su-35) of possibly 159th Fighter Aviation Regiments were still deployed in the Baranovichi Air Base.
Wagner PMC activity in Belarus
Over the past seven days, no noteworthy actions by the Wagner PMC mercenaries staying in Belarus were reported.
On Wednesday (06MAR), Konstantin Mashovets stressed that about 450-460 former Wagner PMC fighters remained in the state.
It is also essential to note that on the same day, the Belarusian Union of Security Officers (BELPOL – former BYPOL) informed about the plans of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to legalise the presence of the Wagner PMC mercenaries in Belarus.
According to the provided information, Belarus was to introduce certain legislative changes, allowing foreign and so-called “stateless” citizens to serve under contract in the Belarusian Armed Forces and Internal Troops in the positions of soldiers, NCOs, and ensigns. As noted, they could sign the first contract for one year, while the latter would allow them to serve for up to the next five years. Such “servicemen”, instead of taking military oaths, would be obliged to comply with the Belarusian Constitution, military regulations, local military regulations, and orders. Members of BELPOL assumed that this measure was meant to provide Lukashenko with an obedient mercenary force who would follow his orders during the upcoming presidential elections (2025) and potential destabilising actions against other states.
Comment
Legislative changes and the introduction of SMS summons are additional examples of practical Belarusian preparations for the state’s functioning during crises and wars. It is assumed that their implementation may be somewhat connected to the future adoption of a new military doctrine and will likely not be the last instance of such activity, as the new strategic document will require corresponding legislative changes in lower-level drafts.
The potential new battalion (?) set of BTR-82A APCs will be a quite visible reinforcement to the ageing fleet of Belarusian IFVs and APCs. However, Belarus’s decision to continue their procurement raises questions, especially considering Russian experiences coming from the Russo-Ukrainian conflict (BTRs are more vulnerable to enemy fire compared to BMPs), as well as earlier plans to introduce Belarusian-made BTR-V2. New vehicles theoretically might reinforce the 6th Mechanised Brigade, which already fields one BTR-82A-equipped battalion (likely 78th Mechanised Battalion) and already has the necessary infrastructure for their training and maintenance. However, the fact that the 11th Mechanised Brigade exclusively uses BMP-2s might predispose it to receive new APCs.
The increased activity of artillery and anti-aircraft units may indicate an upcoming Belarusian “artillery spring” – a training period during which artillery units are involved in field training in the spring season. Among the described exercises, it is noteworthy that the forces of the 103rd Airborne Brigade were training and undergoing combat coordination as part of a peacetime-formed BTG. It is also worth emphasising that Belarusian soldiers continue to receive training directly on the territory of the Russian Federation (snipers of the 6th Mechanised Brigade).
Available data suggest that Belarus maintains about a regiment equivalent of forces to protect its southern borders. According to certain indicators, the involvement of Belarusian SOF will continue in the coming months, likely including a constant presence of Russian soldiers in the southern Belarusian air bases. The potential legalisation of the Wagner PMC presence in Belarus, as described by BELPOL, seems possible. However, given the reliability concerns of previous reports from the group, these pieces of information should be independently verified in the future.