Belarus Security Update – 11 – 17 March 2024
As the reader may know, last week, Minsk launched a large-scale readiness check of its armed forces. Below, you will find initial information about this development. We are still gathering data about what is exactly taking place, what scenarios are practised and where. Once we are confident in our assessment, we will publish it here.
BLUF
No changes in the posture of the Belarusian Armed Forces were observed last week. The announcement of a large-scale combat readiness check resulted in the forward deployment of xx units for exercises.
Executive summary
The last week delivered several noteworthy events pertaining to the political-military situation in Belarus.
Firstly, a US-based think tank published an analytical piece describing a potential storage facility for Russian-owned nuclear warheads in Belarus.
Secondly, Belarusian military leadership initiated a combat readiness check of its armed forces, during which one of the mechanised brigades was brought to wartime strength and partially relocated to the border areas with Lithuania and Latvia.
Besides the ongoing check, Belarusian military units displayed a high training tempo, practically engaging all their functional components. Aside from a series of centralised training gatherings, Belarusian soldiers participated in various tactical and special exercises (training classes), which were also dedicated to reserve personnel.
It is worth noting that despite the apparent absence of Wagner PMC activity in Belarus, the actions of the Russian aviation component were much more visible. Over the past seven days, the arrival of at least several Russian transport planes was noted. Moreover, materials documenting Russian soldiers’ presence at Zyabrovka airfield also appeared in open sources.
Military developments
11-17MAR2024 – The activity of the Belarusian military officials
The Secretary of the Belarusian State Security Council, Lt. Gen. Alexander Volfovich, commented on the current political-military developments around Belarus during his visit to the Belarusian National Security Academy (12MAR). Volfovich informed about the increased efforts of foreign special services in intelligence gathering and subversive activities. According to him, foreign agencies constantly tried to exploit societal vulnerabilities to provoke unrest and denigrate state bodies. The Secretary of the Belarusian State Security Council observed that Western influence would likely begin during the formation of the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly. Ultimately, he also highlighted the importance of proactive measures by state security organs.
On Sunday (17MAR), the Chief of Belarusian General Staff, Maj. Gen. Viktor Gulevich departed on an official visit to Cuba to strengthen bilateral contacts between both states in the military sphere.
14MAR2024 – The deployment of the Russian nuclear weapons to Belarus
On Thursday (14MAR), the Foreign Policy informed that Russian tactical nuclear warheads had already arrived in Belarus, a claim which the Lithuanian Minister of Defence, Arvydas Anusauskas, confirmed.
Simultaneously, the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) published a report which disclosed the location of a potential storage facility. Specifically, this referred to a newly established group of buildings (or bunkers) protected by four security perimeters located in the Bolshaya Horozha at the territory of the 1405th Artillery Munitions Base.
Figure 1: Possible location of a storage site for Russian nuclear warheads in Belarus [source: FAS]
Prior to that, in March 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Russian nuclear weapons would appear in Belarus by 1JUL of the same year. On 25MAY2023, Russian and Belarusian Defence Ministers Sergei Shoigu and Vitor Khrenin signed an agreement regulating the stationing of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. Since then, both heads of state regularly stated that nuclear warheads had appeared in Belarus, but they never delivered any evidence to support such claims. Bunkers in Bolshaya Horozha provide the first evidence of physical security measures akin to nuclear storage facilities in Russia. It is, therefore, likely that the site houses an unspecified number of warheads.
It is also noteworthy that the site is located just 15 km from the 465th Missile Brigade in Asipovichi, equipped with a Russia-delivered dual-capable Iskander SSM system.
Military exercises
11-17MAR2024 – The combat readiness check of the Belarusian Armed Forces
Last week, the Belarusian military leadership ordered a comprehensive combat readiness check of the armed forces. The previous event occurred in APR23 when the 11th Mechanised Brigade was reinforced with several thousand reservists and commenced several weeks of combat training.
The current check commenced on Monday (11MAR). The Chief of Belarusian General Staff, Maj. Gen. Viktor Gulevich stated that the check resulted from the “aggravated military-political situation” and ongoing large-scale exercises of NATO forces in Europe. At the same time, numerous Belarusian military-focused Telegram channels started disseminating information regarding limitations on photographing military equipment. Such notes also included a guide for soldiers on how to detain potential “observers”. However, the Belarusian Hajun military monitoring team could still report the redeployment of seven helicopters of the 50th Mixed Aviation Base (three Mi-24s and four Mi-8s) to the Osovsty Air Base.
On Tuesday (12MAR), it became clear that elements of the 19th Mechanised Brigade (1st Mechanised Battalion) and 111th Artillery Brigades (unspecified BM-27 and 2S5-equipped subunits) left their home garrisons. Also, the reconnaissance battalion of the 6th Mechanised Brigade marched towards the Gozhsky Training Ground. Simultaneously, the data provided by the Military Commissariat of the Grodno Oblast suggested that the practical actions of troops would occur near the Lithuanian border, in the Oshmyany region.
Moreover, the Belarusian MoD also provided data on the start of the complex check of the state bodies of the Gomel Oblast responsible for the formation of Territorial Defence Forces (TDF). As noted, the inspection held under the Head of the TDF Directorate, Col. Dmitry Streshinsky, would last until 05APR and engage up to 200 reserve service members. A day later (13MAR), the Chief of Belarusian General Staff, Maj. Gen. Viktor Gulevich met with the Chairman of the Grodno Oblast Executive Committee, Ivan Krupko and personally handed him the inspection order.
At the same time, available data confirmed that aside from the 1st Mechanised Battalion, the 4th Tank Battalion of the 19th Mechanised Brigade was also involved in the check. Simultaneously, the 339th Mechanised Battalion of the 120th Mechanised Brigade started battalion-level tactical exercise at the 227th Combined Arms Training Ground. The subunit was reinforced with a tank platoon, mortar and engineering subunits and tasked with holding a blocking line combined with searching, blocking and destroying forces of the mock enemy.
On Thursday (14MAR), the Belarusian Hajun, jointly with the Belarusian Union of Railway Workers, confirmed that the 1st Mechanised Battalion, possibly reinforced with a tank company of the 4th Tank Battalion (19th Mechanised Brigade), arrived in Oshmyany region and possibly were later transferred by trailers near Grodi. Unofficially, air assets of all Belarusian air bases (50th Mixed, 61st Fighter, and 116th Assault) were involved in training flights. Also, the collection of Territorial Defence Forces reservists as a part of another inspection in the Voronovsky region had officially begun.
A day later (15MAR), the Chief of Belarusian General Staff, Maj. Gen. Viktor Gulevich provided additional details on the inspection. He informed that the intensity of practical actions would increase due to their complex character. According to him, the 19th Mechanised Brigade and other formations and units of the North-Western and Western Operational Commands (OC) were alerted and started preparations for executing planned training tasks. Gulevich also claimed that inspection would include the induction of reserve personnel. At the same time, personnel of the 19th Mechanised Brigade, after arriving at the destined region, started conducting patrols and reconnaissance activities, as well as trained ambush actions. Simultaneously, various artillery subunits gathered at the Osipovichi (elements of the 191st Artillery Group) and possibly 230th Combined Arms Training Grounds (111th Artillery Brigade) were involved in control classes with live ammo firing. Moreover, possibly the 202nd Mechanised Battalion (6th Mechanised Brigade) also started its participation in the inspection – (sub)unit after replenishing its supplies and moved to the destinated area to participate in drills with live ammo firing (likely Gozhsky Training Ground).
On Saturday (16MAR), the Belarusian MoD confirmed that the 19th Mechanised Brigade created a collection point for reserve personnel. According to the Deputy Commander for Ideological Work, Col. Vyacheslav Okovetsky, the point would induct a destinated amount of reservists as soon as possible to achieve the proper manning of the formation’s subunits. After the process, soldiers would restore their military skills and undergo combat coordination measures. At the Osipovichi Training Ground, 2S5 subunit(s) of the 51st Artillery Brigade underwent a control exercise on fire adjustment with live ammo firing.
On Sunday (17MAR), the Military Commissariat of the Minsk region continued the provision of reserve personnel and civilian vehicles for the needs of the inspection. According to the official statement, more than 3,000 reservists were called up. Some took their military oath at the 19th Mechanised Brigade’s base. Moreover, the Belarusian Hajun team observed that subunits of the 841st Artillery Group and 2S5-equipped subunit of the 111th Artillery Brigade, possibly at the 230th Combined Arms Training Ground, were also involved in combat training classes.
11-15MAR2024 – The training activity of the North-Western Operational Command
During the previous week, it seems that forces of the North-Western OC conducted their training exercises, possibly separately from the abovementioned inspection. However, due to the nature of the regiment to obfuscate the nature of its military exercises, we cannot exclude the possibility that the readiness check covered North-Western Operational Command’s forces.
On Monday (11MAR), the 120th Mechanised Brigade tankers underwent T-72 driving classes at the 227th Combined Arms Training Ground.
A day later (12MAR), at least a single 2S1 platoon of the 310th Artillery Group (120th Mechanised Brigade) was involved in the complex special training classes with live ammo firing at the Osipovichi Training Ground.
The exact range also hosted control direct firing classes of the 231st Artillery Brigade (at least a 2A65 battery on Wednesday – 13MAR) and 191st Artillery Group (at least a single BM-21 Grad platoon on Thursday – 14MAR).
On Friday (15MAR), elements of the 339th Mechanised Battalion of the 120th Mechanised Brigade officially returned to the home garrison after a recent tactical exercise.
11-16MAR2024 – The training activity of the Western Operational Command
Training activity of the Western Operational Command’s forces was significantly elevated last week. This was also a result of the multiple centralised training events and contests.
Firstly, anti-air (air defence) subunits continued participating in the training gathering at the Domanovo Training Ground. During its course, the 147th Air Defence Regiment (11MAR) and an anti-air battalion of the 6th Mechanised Brigade underwent battery-level tactical exercises (12MAR). The latter even continued its training at least until Friday (15MAR).
Secondly, possibly on Wednesday (13MAR), an analogical gathering dedicated to the command’s engineering-sapper subunits began. On the following day (14MAR), service members trained in preparing engineering fortifications at an unspecified location. According to available data, their practical actions lasted at least until Saturday (16MAR).
Moreover, between Monday (11MAR) and Friday (15MAR), the competition for the best motor rifle platoon and the reconnaissance group of the command was held at the Gozhsky Training Ground. After several days of competition, the reconnaissance specialists of the 6th Mechanised Brigade achieved the best results before the service members of the 22nd Spetsnaz Company and 11th Mechanised Brigade (reconnaissance battalion).
Moving to more “traditional” training events, it is essential to mention the following field exits:
Monday (11MAR)
350th Artillery Group (at least a single 2S1 Gvozdika platoon);
Wednesday (13MAR)
841st Artillery Group (at least a single 2S3 Akatsiya platoon);
NBC protection company of the 6th Mechanised Brigade;
Thursday (14MAR)
111th Artillery Brigade (at least a single 2A65 Msta-B battery);
On Wednesday (13MAR), the 6th Mechanised Brigade’s soldiers were involved in the fire-tactical exercise in the home garrison.
A day later (14MAR), the 11th Mechanised Brigade soldiers took part in combat training classes, likely at the Chepelevo Training Ground. During their course, they marched to the concentration area, created the checkpoint, and participated in classes on tactical medicine and NBC protection. At the same time, service members of the 250th Security and Maintenance Battalion underwent firing classes using machine guns mounted on Drakon armoured cars. In the 74th Communications Regiment, service members participated in another nighttime special training classes.
On Friday (15MAR), firing classes engaged soldiers of the 815th Technical Support Center. In the 111th Artillery Brigade, a special exercise on vehicle refuelling at nighttime was held a day later (16MAR).
It is also worth noticing that data suggesting the continuation of the 6th and 11th Mechanised Brigade’s snipers training in Russia (56th Combat Training Center) also appeared.
11-17MAR2024 – The training activity of the Air Force and Air Defence Forces
Over the past seven days, the Belarusian Air Force and Air Defence Forces (AFADF) demonstrated a somewhat visible level of aviation activity, most likely directly linked to the military inspection.
Flights of Belarusian air assets were observed almost daily starting from Monday (11MAR).
On Wednesday (13MAR), the 2nd Air Defence Battalion of the 1st Air Defence Regiment conducted a field exit.
Two days later (15MAR), the Belarusian military television VoenTV informed that helicopters of the 50th Mixed Aviation Base (Mi-8, Mi-24, and Mi-35) participated in the combat training classes at the Ruzhany Training Ground.
Training flights were also visible later in the week. Interestingly, the Belarusian Hajun team noted that on Thursday (14MAR) and Friday (15MAR), Belarusian helicopters landed at the so-called “Site 400” near Volma – the facility which was likely used as a Russian headquarters during the initial part of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
12-15MAR2024 – The training activity of the Special Operation Forces
In a recurring pattern observed in recent weeks, Belarusian Special Operations Forces (SOF) training was predominantly focused around the 103rd Airborne Brigade. This trend may be attributed to unofficial data suggesting that forces of the 38th Air Assault Brigade have possibly begun another rotation in protecting the Belarusian border.
According to Hajun, the 357th Airborne Battalion (103rd Airborne Brigade) was rotated by the 383rd Air Assault Battalion (38th Air Assault Brigade) to protect the Zyabrovka airfield, where Russian S-400s are deployed.
Returning to the 103rd Airborne Brigade, at least 30 personnel conducted jumps over the Losvido Training Ground from the Mi-8 helicopter on Tuesday (12MAR).
A day later (13MAR), the exact range hosted engineering training classes.
On Thursday (14MAR), personnel of the peacekeeping company of the same formation underwent a control tactical exercise with live ammo firing. At the same time, on the following day (15MAR), soldiers of the brigade participated in demolition classes.
Speaking about the training efforts of Belarusian SOF, it also should be noted that on Friday (15MAR), at least 15-20 service members of the 5th Spetsnaz Brigade conducted their first parachute jumps from a Mi-8 helicopter. They were held from 800 metres height near Sincha.
12-16MAR2024 – Other training activities
Addressing the topic of last week’s training activities, it’s worth noting reserve training events. However, it is possible that they were directly related to the readiness check of the Belarusian Armed Forces.
From Tuesday (12MAR) to Saturday (16MAR), at least several military units were calling up reserve soldiers, who then reinstated their “combat skills”. Aside from the abovementioned 19th Mechanised Brigade, this refers to the following:
6th Mechanised Brigade (several reservists);
11th Mechanised Brigade (about 20 reservists);
74th Communications Regiment (about 20 reservists);
83rd Airfield-Engineering Regiment (at least 20 reservists);
127th Communications Brigade (at least seven reservists);
557th Engineering Brigade (about 30 reservists);
On the other hand, it is also worth mentioning that between Tuesday (12MAR) and Wednesday (13MAR), unspecified representatives of the Belarusian Armed Forces also took part in the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) strategic command-staff training. According to the official statement, it was focused on stabilising a crisis in the Central Asian region and included preparing proposals and drafts for the potential peacekeeping operation.
Russian military activity in Belarus
Speaking about the activity of the Russian Armed Forces in Belarus, it is essential to note air movements reported later in the week.
On Friday (15MAR), Russian An-26 and An-124 arrived at Baranovichi Air Base, while the Tu-134AK landed at Minsk National Airport. Another Russian Il-76 landed at Machulischy Air Base almost simultaneously, while Russian An-26KPA flew from Machulischy Air Base to the Gomel Airport.
A day later (16MAR), Russian An-26KPA departed from Machulischy Air Base to Gomel Airport again. Moreover, Il-76 left the first base towards the Rostov-on-Don.
On Saturday (17MAR), the Belarusian Flagshtok news outlet informed that the Russian An-26 aircraft (presumably the abovementioned An-26KPA) circled Gomel for about two hours. As noted, it was likely responsible for providing radiotechnical data for the needs of the ongoing combat readiness check.
Regarding the An-124 arrival, it is worth quoting claims the Belarusian Hajun team provided on Tuesday (12MAR). According to the team, the recent arrivals of the mentioned aircraft (RF-82011) could be connected with the repair of Algerian MiG-29 fighters by the Belarusian 558th Aircraft Repair Plant.
Interestingly, two days later (14MAR), a member of a paramilitary club from Rechitsa provided a video presenting the positions of Belarusian and Russian soldiers at Zyabrovka airfield. It presented elevated 96L6E radar and Pantsir-S1 and S-400 systems positions, accompanied by the presence of Belarusian SOF.
Wagner PMC activity in Belarus
Over the past seven days, no noteworthy activity of the Wagner PMC mercenaries in Belarus was reported.
On Tuesday (12MAR), a Telegram channel, possibly associated with the fighters remaining in Belarus, provided materials suggesting a continuation of joint training of the mercenaries with Belarusian Internal Troops.
A day later (13MAR), members of the Belarusian Hajun team informed about the observed “dewagnerisation” of Belarusian informational space. This was evidenced by reduced attention paid to mercenaries, even military-related sources. Nevertheless, Hajun pointed out that many “Wagnerities” were still deployed in Belarus.
Comment
The correlation between combat readiness checks, simultaneous series of TDF exercises, and call-ups of reservists in various regions and military units is undoubtedly not coincidental. It should be viewed as a set of measures undertaken by the Belarusian Armed Forces, not only for training purposes but also demonstrative in light of ongoing NATO exercises. The fact that these actions were carried out close to NATO countries also signalled Minsk’s readiness to respond to any threats.
For another consecutive year, the Belarusian Armed Forces continued the practice of “large-scale” readiness and mobilisation checks of their mechanised brigades, mobilising approximately 3,000 reservists for this purpose while simultaneously incorporating civilian vehicles from the economy. While given that the Belarusian Armed Forces are largely a “mobilisation army”, such exercises should not be surprising. However, their scale is noteworthy. We assess that this build-up of the armed forces is temporary and does not indicate permanent changes in posture or preparations for a possible conflict with NATO.
Apart from readiness checks, we witnessed further examples of implementing Russian experiences from the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. Setting aside the widespread use of UAVs during various exercises, it’s worth noting that a significant portion were conducted at night. This applies to conventional combat operations and the deployment of command posts and communication nodes.
The presence of the Russian troops and the Wagner PMC mercenaries likely remained at the same level. The deployment of aircraft was likely linked to the ongoing mobilisation check.