Belarus Security Update - 11 September – 17 September 2023
Belarus Security Update - 11 September – 17 September 2023
A summary of key events in Belarus
BLUF
The Belarusian Armed Forces did not change their posture last week.
Executive summary
Last week provided some noteworthy developments in Belarus, although most of them were political in nature.
The general activity of the Belarusian Armed Forces decreased compared to the previous week as
Belarusian service members actively prepared or participated in events dedicated to the Belarusian Day of National Unity.
(The mentioned holiday is celebrated on 17SEP and has a state character. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko established it in 2021 to commemorate the unification of Belarusian during WWII)
Although the number of Belarusian training events remained low over the last seven days, some were noteworthy. On the one hand, Belarusian servicemen departed to Russia to use Russian military infrastructure, and on the other, several military formations continued their preparations for the large-scale bilateral exercise of the Belarusian Armed Forces planned for the end of SEP23.
Actions of both the Russian Armed Forces and Wagner PMC elements were almost invisible throughout the last week.
Political developments
12SEP2023 – Belarusian President awards selected citizens
On Tuesday (12SEP), Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko led an official award-handing ceremony for selected citizens on the upcoming Day of National Unity.
This refers to the group of 60 Belarusians announced on 8SEP – including the Head of the Special Purpose Detachment of the 432nd Main Military Clinical Medical Center, Col. Andrey Gurinovich and the Head of the Belarusian Military Band Service, Col. Igor Khlebus (issue covered in the Belarusian Security Update 9SEP-15SEP).
The event took place in the Palace of Independence and was also attended by other representatives of the Belarusian Armed Forces. During its course, the Commander of the 147th Air Defence Regiment, Lt. Col. Igor Kruglik, noted the importance of the event and shortly spoke about the responsibility of Belarusian military personnel. According to him, representatives of the Belarusian power agencies fully understand their duty and are aware of their responsibilities. Kruglik directly pointed out support of the Belarusian Army to the Belarusian President and sent his regards to all awarded citizens.
During the ceremony, Alexander Lukashenko shortly spoke about the war.
He claimed that wars were occurring when people stopped working. According to the Belarusian President, there would be no war if all citizens did their jobs and left military-political affairs to the representatives of the state leadership.
13SEP2023 – Lukashenko recognised as an accomplice of Russian war crimes
On Wednesday (13SEP), the European Parliament recognised Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko as involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict and called the International Criminal Court to issue a warrant for his arrest.
According to the European Parliament resolution from 13SEP “on relations with Belarus” [2023/2041(INI)], the Lukashenka regime has become an accomplice in the crimes committed by Russia, which implies responsibility for the destruction and damage caused to Ukraine.
14SEP-15SEP2023 – Lukashenko’s visit to Russia
On Thursday (14SEP), the Belarusian President departed for Russia to participate in a working meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.
The meeting took place a day later (15SEP). It officially pertained to international and regional issues and the subject of Russo-Belarusian cooperation in economy, industry, agriculture and import substitution.
During its course, the Belarusian leader initially noted deepening cooperation between Belarus and Russia. He said that officials from both states had already completed 80% of the objectives they were tasked with at the beginning of the year.
According to Lukashenko, both states were actively overcoming appearing problems, which was proved by the recent stabilisation of the Russian domestic fuel market. That said, the Belarusian President expressed his belief that the 2024 year would be even more successful for Belarus and Russia.
Besides, Lukashenko spoke shortly about the possible trilateral cooperation between Belarus, Russia and North Korea, noting its significant potential. He also highlighted a notable perspective for deepening cooperation with African states.
Military developments
11SEP-15SEP2023 – The visit of African military diplomats
On Monday (11SEP), the Belarusian International Military Cooperation Department (IMCD) informed about the arrival of 14 military attaches representing Africa to Belarus. Officially, they were invited by the Belarusian MoD and spent at least five days in the state.
A day later (12SEP), the Head of the IMCD, Col. Valery Revenko, led an informational gathering of the abovementioned attaches held In the Central House of the Officers.
During the event, Revenko highlighted the importance of developing bilateral military relations between Africa and Belarus and spoke about the continent’s enormous potential.
The mentioned gathering also included a briefing led by the Head of the Africa and Middle East Department of the Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Yuri Nikolaychik. After his speech dedicated to the prospects of bilateral cooperation with Belarus, African military diplomats visited the Belarusian Military Academy.
A few hours later, the Head of the International Military Cooperation Department met with the Egyptian Military Attache to the Russian Federation, Maj. Gen. Waelen Elessavi, who was most likely also accredited as an Egyptian military representative to Belarus.
Over the next two days (13SEP and 14SEP), foreign representatives participated in several more official visits.
On Wednesday (13SEP), they arrived at Minsk Tractor Plant OJSC to obtain information about its products. After several hours, they visited the Belarusian State Aviation Academy (BSAA) to familiarise themselves with its educational and material base, mainly focusing on the UAV complexes and simulators. In the evening, African attaches visited BelAZ OJCS, where they inspected the production of mining trucks and equipment.
On Thursday (14SEP), 14 African diplomats arrived at “Agat – Control Systems” JSC,
Which is one of the leading Belarusian enterprises producing control systems and communications complexes.
A day later (15SEP), Col. Valery Revenko met with the President of the Moscow Military Attache Association (and subsequently the South African Military Attache to Russia), Brig. Gen. Viisule Sibaka. The meeting summarised the visit of African Military Attaches to Belarus. During its course, the sides discussed future cooperation, although no concentrate statements were announced.
11SEP2023 – Revenko’s interview
On Monday (11SEP), the Belarusian MoD published an interview with the head of IMCD, which mainly pertained to the situation around Belarus and international relations in general.
Initially, Revenko spoke about the Belarusian-Ukrainian relations. He pointed out “certain problematic” issues between both states and claimed that they appeared “recently” when Ukraine started to change its stance towards Belarus. He stressed that from a friendly state, it became neutral and non-friendly later on. The Head of the IMCD highlighted that the mentioned issues refer mainly to the Ukrainian leadership, whose actions were usually not correlated with the will of the Ukrainian people.
Ravenko also referred to the actions of Ukrainian soldiers deployed near the Belarusian border. He expressed his sadness that the borders were protected not by professional border guards but by servicemen of Ukrainian Territorial Defence or other “militarised” formations. According to Revenko, these service members often conduct provocations.
Regarding the bilateral relations with Poland, the Head of the IMCD mainly spoke about the significant expansion of the Polish Armed Forces.
He mentioned Polish plans to reach man a 300,000-strong army, which would break the rules of the CFE Treaty. Revenko also pointed out that Poland increased the number of military drills. But, at the same time, Warsaw was not interested in conducting bilateral inspections. According to the Head of the IMCD, Belarus invited and would continue to invite Polish representatives to the military exercises. It was unlikely that Polish leadership would change its policy towards Belarus before 15OCT (elections in Poland), Revenko said.
Later on, the Head of the IMCD briefly referred to the modernisation of the Belarusian Armed Forces. He claimed that despite increasing combat capabilities (by inducting Mi-35M helicopter and Iskander-M or S-400 systems), the Belarusian Army did not expand its structures and numerical strength.
Speaking about the cooperation between the Union State and NATO, Revenko stressed that it was almost non-existent after members of the alliance cut relations with the Union State in 2021. Nonetheless, minimal contact was maintained to avoid potential crises. Discussing the subject of the Chinese Minister of Defence, Gen. Li Shangfu’s visit to Belarus, Revenko stressed that it provided a strong message to the collective West. As noted, the visit was only the beginning of cooperation, especially since Belarusian Minister of Defence, Lt. Gen. Viktor Khrenin, would soon visit China to discuss its details.
Lastly, Revenko referred to the other states with which Belarusians actively cooperate.
He pointed out recent meetings of Belarusian military leadership representatives with their Indian, Iranian or Cuban counterparts. According to Revenko, Belarus tried to actively deepen its cooperation with states ready to support Belarus and follow the multipolar world concept.
11SEP-14SEP2023 – The expansion of Belarusian military infrastructure
On Monday (11SEP), the Belarusian Флагшток news outlet noticed a recent Belarusian public procurement order for the construction of a “training-material base” in the Kalinino in the direct vicinity of the recently created “Khrenin’s line”.
According to this source, there was no data about the maximum construction cost. Moreover, the local executive committee did not have any information about it, which suggests that the order was made directly by the Belarusian MoD.
Three days later (14SEP), the Belarusian Hajun military monitoring team confirmed the data above. The source noted the similarity between analogical objects recently built near the village of Saki (Zhabinkovsky region) and noted that such facilities would be used as pre-prepared strongholds during wartime:
12SEP2023 – Deployment of Russian nuclear weapons to Belarus
On Tuesday (12SEP), the Belarusian Union of Railway Workers provided additional data on the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons to Belarus. According to the source, Russians started the next stage of the nuclear weapons deployment in the late AUG. However, to maintain secrecy, echelons that delivered such assets included small numbers of wagons (from three to six) and constantly changed their numbers and indexes.
As the Belarusian Union of Railway Workers noted, five military echelons fit the abovementioned requirements. They crossed the Russian-Belarusian border on 26AUG, 4SEP, 5SEP and twice after the latter date using the Krasnoe – Osinovka rail section. All of them already arrived at their destination stations – Baranovichi-Polesskie and Luniniets. New arrivals are expected in the OCT-NOV period when likely three echelons will arrive in Prudok (North of Vitebsk).
15SEP-16SEP2023 – The celebration of the National Unity Day
Since the abovementioned holiday falls on Sunday (17SEP) this year, dozens of military events took place over the weekend. This mainly refers to solemn bike or motor rides, official motor rallies, and military equipment exhibitions that appeared in most Belarusian cities.
Over the weekend (15SEP and 16SEP), the 11th Mechanised Brigade independently held “double celebrations” linked to the National Unity Dat and the Day of Motor Rifles.
For instance, celebration-related activities held on Saturday (16SEP) involved personnel of the following formations:
15th Air Defence Brigade;
927th Center for the Training and Use of UAVs;
50th Mixed Aviation Base;
49th Radiotechnical Brigade;
115th Air Defence Regiment;
120th Air Defence Brigade;
Belarusian Military Academy;
Military-Transport Faculty of the Belarusian State Transport University;
11th Mechanised Brigade;
Military exercises
11SEP-16SEP2023 – Special-tactical exercise Voenkor-2023
Last week, the Belarusian Armed Forces started an annual special-tactical exercise dedicated to Belarusian journalists and internet bloggers to prepare them for the role of war correspondents (“Voenkors”). According to the Deputy Minister of Defence for Ideological Work, Maj. Gen. Leonid Kasinsky, the Belarusian Army, conducted an analogical exercise for the third time (about 70 journalists completed the drill).
During this year’s edition, practical actions occurred at the Losvido Training Ground.
The instructors of the 103rd Airborne Brigade Peacekeeping Company supervised them.
On Monday (11SEP), journalists visited the place of the drills and got acquainted with the military equipment of the Belarusian Armed Forces. They also watched a performance of the 103rd Airborne Brigade’s music band – 103rd Region.
On Tuesday (12SEP), they listened to a lecture by the Deputy Head of the Main Ideological Work Department, Col. Alexey Titsky, dedicated to the activity of journalists in the zone of armed conflicts. Notably, they also underwent tactical medicine classes led by the Wagner PMC instructors and participated in diving, mining and demining demonstrations.
On Wednesday (13SEP), selected representatives of the Belarusian media underwent psychological training combined with a tactical episode about surviving a mine ambush and evacuation. Participants of the drills also independently participated in military topographic classes.
On Thursday (14SEP), they took part in practical classes during which they prepared media reports on specific (combat-related) topics.
On the last day of the drills (15SEP), Belarusian journalists conducted a training march, and after reaching their destination point, they underwent a psychological obstacle course. Shortly after, the Maj. Gen. Leonid Kasinsky awarded journalists special certificates confirming their participation in the exercise.
11SEP-13SEP2023 – Training of Territorial Defence Forces and reservists
On Monday (11SEP), the Belarusian MoD informed about the ongoing command-staff exercise of the Territorial Defence Forces (TDF) of the Polotsk region held as a part of the ongoing TDF inspection.
Practical actions involved elements of the People’s Militia and lasted until Wednesday (13SEP).
Belarusian reservists most likely involved in the training camps held in the 127th Communications Brigade (since 25AUG) finished their planned reserve training on Monday (11SEP).
On this day, the Deputy Minister of Defence for Logistics, Maj. Gen. Andrey Burdyko, jointly with the Head of the Mobilisation Department of the city of Baranovichi, Baranovichi and Lyakhovichi Regions, Lt. Col. Mihail Zaranko, took part in a farewell ceremony for reserve personnel held in Baranovichi. During the ceremony, also attended by the representatives of the local authorities, selected servicemembers received special gifts.
On the other hand, presumably, 14 reservists from the Pervomaisky district of Minsk departed for their planned reserve training camps held in the 2nd Engineering Brigade on Wednesday (13SEP).
12SEP-15SEP2023 – Operational-tactical exercise of the Belarusian Air Force and Air Defence Forces
On Tuesday (12SEP), the Belarusian MoD informed about the ongoing second phase of the operational-tactical exercise of the Belarusian Air Force and Air Defence Forces. As a part of the practical actions, elements of the 1st and 377th Air Defence Regiments, as well as the 15th Air Defence Brigade, departed to Russia (from Baranovichi Air Base to Telemba Training Ground – using Russian IL-76 – RF-78656 or RF-78668).
They arrived at their destination two days later (14SEP). On Friday (15SEP), logistic subunit(s) started their measures to secure the needs of the air defence formations. However, no actual training actions started yet.
12SEP-15SEP2023 – Noteworthy movements of Belarusian military equipment
Between Tuesday (12SEP) and Friday (15SEP), several Belarusian military formations actively prepared for their participation in the large-scale bilateral exercise of the Belarusian Armed Forces.
On Tuesday (12SEP), The Deputy Commander of the Western Operational Command, Col. Dmitry Bitny, visited the 11th Mechanised Brigade, where he led a readiness review of the formation’s personnel. Notably, the analogical review also occurred a day later (13SEP) in this formation.
Subsequently, on Wednesday (13SEP), soldiers of the 336th Reactive Artillery Brigade departed to a destination area to participate in an upcoming “bilateral complex exercise”. Based on published materials, it is safe to assume that at least one BM-30 battery (up to the whole battalion) left the garrison.
Two days later (15SEP), the 51st Artillery Brigade underwent a readiness review before the upcoming exercise. This suggests that this formation will also participate in the upcoming drills, especially since, according to the Belarusian Hajun’s data, a 2A65 battery subsequently departed from the formation’s garrison.
The abovementioned source provided some additional information regarding the exercise. According to Hajun, it will occur at the end of SEP23 and involve elements of all mechanised brigades (6th, 11th, 19th and 120th) and the abovementioned 51st Artillery and 336th Reactive Artillery Brigades.
Based on the character of the exercise (bilateral), as well as the involved military formations, it can’t be ruled out that the formation of the Western Operational Command (6th and 11th Mechanised Brigades) will directly face formations of the North-Western Operational Command (19th and 120th Mechanised Brigade). Subunits of the 51st Artillery and 336th Reactive Artillery Brigades will presumably be fairly divided between both commands. The drill will be used to summarise the training cycle on the command level by checking both tactical (brigades) and operational level (commands) command and control, when it comes to planning, organising and conducting military operations.
13SEP-15SEP2023 – Training actions of the Belarusian Air Force and Air Defence Forces
Last week, several independent training classes took place among the Belarusian Air Force and Air Defence Forces.
On Wednesday (13SEP), elements of the 2284th Radiotechnical Battalion (8th Radiotechnical Brigade) conducted a presumably field exit.
A day later (14SEP), a Tor-M2K battery of the 15th Air Defence Brigade left the home garrison and presumably deployed its anti-air assets near Sharkov village.
It is worth mentioning that Belarusian air assets presented significant training activity on Thursday (14SEP) and Friday (15SEP).
On the first day (14SEP), presumably, training flights occurred in Lida, Machulischy and Baranovichi Air Bases and likely engaged all types of Belarusian airframes. A day later (15SEP), Lida Air Base hosted at least ten takeoffs. Moreover, at least two fighters and at least five helicopters (three MI-8 and Mi-24) with two An-26 cargo aircraft operated from Baranovichi and Machulischy Air Bases.
12SEP-13SEP2023 – Other training activities
Besides, training actions appeared in three more formations last week.
On Tuesday (12SEP), the 74th Communications Regiment started its special-tactical exercise held in the Grodno Oblast. The drills were meant to train (re)deployment of communication assets based on experiences from the Russo-Ukrainian war.
Subsequently (12SEP), soldiers of the Medical Company of the 38th Air Assault Brigade underwent a special-tactical exercise held at the Brestsky Training Ground. The exercise sought to develop practical skills linked to the medical evacuation during airborne (air assault) activities of the formation.
A day later (13SEP), the 227th Combined Arms Training Ground hosted training classes for the anti-tank subunit of the 339th Mechanised Battalion of the 120th Mechanised Brigade with live ammo firing.
On Thursday (14SEP), tank crews of the 6th Mechanised Brigade conducted T-72B firing classes, most likely at the Gozhsky Training Ground.
12SEP-15SEP2023 – Noteworthy movements of Belarusian military equipment
Tuesday (12SEP)
Two MAZ trucks with three OSA anti-air launchers were moving on the R45 road towards Gluboke;
A column of the 74th Communications Regiment equipment was moving in Grodno;
Wednesday (13SEP):
An unspecified number of BM-30 launchers (336th Reactive Artillery Brigade) were moving in Osipovichi;
Three Ural-4320 trucks were moving on the M5 highway toward the intersection of M8 and M10 highways.
Thursday (14SEP):
A Tigr vehicle, two unspecified vehicles and an empty trailer were moving on MKAD.
Friday (15SEP):
Three APP90PM-2 vehicles were moving towards Minsk from Lohoisk;
Several vehicles of the 74th Communications Regiment were moving in Grodno;
Two MAZ buses with a MAZ truck were moving in Baranovichi;
Besides, the presence of three military echelons was reported last week.
Two of them appeared on Monday (11SEP). The first one included about two airborne companies of the 103rd Airborne Brigade (about 20 BTR-80s, three command-staff vehicles, 16 MAZ-5316/6317 trucks, as well as several Kayman and UAZ vehicles) heading from the area of Zhodino towards Vitebsk. This most likely refers to the forces involved in the “Interaction-2023” exercise returning to the home garrison. The second one was spotted at the Vitebsk Railway Station. It included three T-72 tanks, four BTRs and several BMPs.
Two days later (13SEP), a military echelon with a 2S1 SPH was spotted at Gomel-Novobelistkaya Railway Station.
Russian military activity in Belarus
Last week, the Russian Armed Forces presented minimal activity in Belarus.
On Monday (11SEP), two Russia IL-76 aircraft (RF-78656 and RF-78668) arrived at the Baranovichi Air Base. However, they returned to Russia a day later (12SEP) and most likely were used to transport Belarusian troops to training areas in Russia.
On Saturday (16SEP), unofficial sources informed about the possible presence of two Russian military echelons in Belarus.
The first included about 25 tanks spotted at the Vyerkhnyadzvinsk Railway Station, while the second, with at least seven tanks, appeared in Polotsk. Nevertheless, no additional details linked to the abovementioned movements were posted.
Wagner PMC activity in Belarus
Analogically, unofficial sources provided limited data on last week’s Wagner PMC activities in Belarus.
It is known that mercenaries participated in the “Voenkor-2023” exercise. However, the scale of their involvement is unclear.