Belarus Security Update - 12 June - 18 June 2023
BLUF: No changes in the posture of the Belarusian Armed Forces were detected over the past seven days. From a political point of view, most discussions in the public sphere pertained to the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons to Belarus, which according to Lukashenko and Putin, has already occurred.
Belarus may also soon conduct an operational-command snap readiness drill.
Summary
Over the past seven days, the Belarusian Armed Forces' activities remained limited. Yet, both Russian and Belarusian political leaders made statements on the deployment of nuclear weapons to Belarus. Those reports dominated the infosphere linked to the status of Belarus and will likely continue to impact discussions on this topic for the foreseeable future.
Political developments
On Tuesday, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko widely discussed this subject when he visited one of the Belarusian ammo production facilities – the RPUP Plant of Precision Mechanics located near the Lenino village.
After initial statements linked to the failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, Lukashenko admitted that acquiring tactical nuclear warheads was his initiative to protect Belarusian territory. He noted that Belarus doesn't need strategic weapons because the country "will not fight against the United States". He stressed he wouldn't hesitate to use nuclear weapons independently in case of aggression against Belarus. Lukashenko added that nuclear weapons would be delivered to Belarus "within days".
The President also shared his views on the current regional military-political environment. He claimed that Western states should not push Russia to use nuclear weapons, which was possible if Russia's vital interests were under attack. Lukashenko asserted that the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost thousands (40,000) servicemen and dozens of Western equipment samples during the "so-called counteroffensive". According to him, the Russian Armed Forces improved their fighting, and Ukrainians could not even reach the first line of the Russian defences.
Regarding Belarus's more active involvement in the war, Lukashenko said it would only happen if Belarus were directly attacked. He noted that Belarus was strong enough to answer militarily, primarily due to the enormous number of men who wanted to protect the homeland. Answering the question about the willingness to fight in Belarusian society, Lukashenko stressed that "he will not ask people" but perform his presidential duties in case of an escalation, meaning he would mobilise men and go to war.
Later, Lukashenko spoke about his negotiations with Vladimir Putin on nuclear warheads. According to Belarusian President, he did not ask but required Russia to provide such capability to Belarus. Moreover, Lukashenko admitted that Belarus had already received warheads three times stronger than those used in Japan during WWII. Nevertheless, he noted that the official arrival date would only be announced when all warheads were deployed. Regarding the possible storage locations, Lukashenko stated they would be spread across different storage facilities in Belarus.
Russian President Vladimir Putin commented on the deployment process three days later. During his speech at the International Economic Forum in Sankt Petersburg, Putin stated that the first Russian nuclear warheads had already arrived in Belarus, adding that more would be transferred soon.
On Saturday, the Founder of the "White Legion" Belarusian nationalist movement, Sergey Bulba, claimed that Russians had transferred an unspecified number of Topol-M ICBMs to Belarus. According to him, Putin is planning a war with NATO and might even launch missiles from Belarusian territory to avoid international responsibility. However, he did not provide any evidence behind these statements.
To sum up, both political leaders claimed that the transfer of nuclear warheads had occurred. We have seen no evidence to indicate that this has happened. The US government or NATO, in general, did not confirm such a development either. Russia and Belarus may be trying to influence the alliance's decision-making regarding Ukraine's status ahead of the upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius.
Last week, the Chairman of the Belarusian State Military-Industrial Complex, Dmitry Pantus, reported that since NOV22, the Belarusian defence industry had taken measures to increase the production of the most popular ammunition types in Belarus. This could relate to an increase in missiles for BM-21 Grad MLR systems, which the complex plans to produce 15,000 per year. We understand that the process of producing these shells is not automatic and still includes a lot of manual work. As such, it is unclear to what extent Belarus will be able to meet this objective.
On Tuesday, the Head of the International Military Cooperation Department, Col. Valery Revenko, met with the Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Cuba to Belarus, Santiago Perez Benitez, to discuss implementing bilateral cooperation measures. A day later, the Chief of Belarusian General Staff, Maj. Gen. Viktor Gulevich with the Head of the Main Ideological Work Department, Maj. Gen. Leonid Kasinsky participated in the classes for (high-rank) military representatives linked to cooperation with the media.
Military developments
In general, the training load of the Belarusian Armed Forces was quite average. However, a few noteworthy events took place.
On Tuesday, the Deputy Minister of Defence for Rear, Maj. Gen. Andrey Burdyko started command-staff exercises with the logistic command bodies of the Belarusian Armed Forces.
Moreover, a motor rifle and tank subunits of the 6th Mechanised Brigade underwent BTR and T-72 firing classes at the Gozhsky Training Ground a day later. At the same time, the 927th Center for Training and the Use of UAVs hosted a practical seminar on the use of UAVs in modern conflicts. Apart from UAV operators, the Belarusian State Military Industrial Complex representatives also attended this event.
On Thursday, the 116th Assault Aviation Base (Lida) hosted planned training flights involving Su-25 close air support aircraft and Yak-130 and L-39 training aircraft. This drill also involved cadets of the Belarusian Military Academy Aviation Faculty.
Service members of the 5th Spetsnaz Brigade underwent combat training classes, including parachute jumps from Mi-8 helicopter(s). Drills involved both contract and conscript servicemen.
Belarusian reservists also took part in firing classes hosted by the 72nd Joint Training Center at the 227th Combined Arms Training Ground (Tuesday). Three days later, reservists of the Territorial Defence Forces (TDF) underwent analogical classes (as a part of the TDF inspection) held in the Luniniets region.
Please click here to access information about Belarusian exercises.
Last week, based on procurement data, the Belarusian Hajun project wrote that it was possible that elements of the North-Western Operational Command (19th Mechanised, 310th artillery group of the 120th Mechanised Brigade) would soon conduct a "sudden" readiness check. This would partly explain the recently limited activities of units subordinated to this command.
That said, over the past seven days, the number of movements, including Belarusian military equipment, was minimal - the most significant transfer involved eight covered Kamaz trucks observed on Wednesday.
Russian forces similarly presented limited activity. Nonetheless, An-26 (RF-36008) cargo aircraft arrived in Belarus on Friday. Moreover, Mi-8 helicopters conducted several training flights on Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday. On Thursday, they also involved two Su-30SM fighters currently likely stationed at the 51st Mixed Aviation Base (Machulischy). Unofficial sources also reported the presence of the empty Russian military echelon at Ozerische Railway Station.