Belarus Security Update – 13 – 19 November 2023 (Free access)
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BLUF
The general posture of the Belarusian Armed Forces remained unchanged last week.
Executive summary
Last week brought some notable developments regarding the political-military situation in Belarus. They affected several aspects of the Belarusian Armed Forces’ functioning, especially the equipment, personnel and training.
They pertained to the adoption of the battalion set of the Polonez-M MLR system, state awards for the highest military commanders, and the creation of new positions in the Belarusian Army.
That said, the general training activity of the Belarusian Armed Forces remained minimal, which came as a result of the ending 2022/2023 military academic year (recently inducted conscripts are undergoing basic training) and the fact that elements of certain military formations actively celebrated several annual holidays and anniversaries that occurred last week.
It must be noted that elements of the Russian Armed Forces deployed in Belarus presented almost no activity over the past seven days. Also, no noteworthy data about the Wagner PMC mercenaries’ actions and presence appeared in open sources.
Political developments
15-17NOV2023 – The evacuation of Belarusian citizens from the Gaza Strip
On Wednesday (15NOV), the official Telegram channel of the Belarusian President informed about the successful evacuation of Belarusian citizens from the Gaza Strip.
Not much information about this operation was released for public use.
Two days later (17NOV), the Belarusian MotolkoHelp team claimed that some Belarusian schools started money collection for evacuated citizens.
17NOV2023 – The visit of the Belarusian President to the 1868th Artillery Armaments Base
On Wednesday (17NOV), Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko arrived in Gomel,
where he visited the 1868th Artillery Armament Base. He was accompanied by the Secretary of the Belarusian State Security Council, Lt. Gen. Alexander Volfovich, and the Head of the Belarusian MoD, Lt. Gen. Viktor Khrenin and the Chief of Armaments, Maj. Gen. Andrey Fedin.
According to the official statement, Lukashenko arrived to inspect the base. Published materials confirmed that he “checked” small arms and RPG launchers remaining in storage and artillery assets undergoing annual technical maintenance.
Behind closed doors, Khrenin and the 1868th Artillery Armament Base leadership presented their reports to the Belarusian Commander-in-Chief.
Unofficially, Lukashenko was impressed with the conditions of weapon storage and praised the activity of the Belarusian Ministry of Defence in this regard.
After talking with a civilian employee of the base (technical personnel), he tasked representatives of the military leadership “to deal” with the import substitution of reinforced concrete for the Belarusian Armed Forces’ needs. He asserted that the Belarusian Army ought to make optimal use of the capabilities offered by Belarusian companies in this field.
Having familiarised with the 1868th Artillery Armament Base’s safety procedures, Lukashenko inquired whether the identical safety regulations applied to nuclear weapons stationed in Belarus. He received an affirmative answer from the MoD representatives.
Military developments
12-14NOV2023 – The Belarusian delegation to the United Arab Emirates
The beginning of the last week focused on the visit of Belarusian representatives to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which started on the previous Sunday (12NOV).
The Belarusian delegation was headed by the Belarusian Minister of Defence, Lt. Gen. Viktor Khrenin, and included the Chief of Armaments, Maj. Gen. Andrey Fedin, the International Military Cooperation Department (IMCD) head, Col. Valery Revenko.
On Monday (13NOV), Khrenin met with his local counterpart, Mohammed bin Ahmed al-Bovardi and signed an agreement on joint military cooperation. Its provisions were not disclosed. Subsequently, the rest of the delegation members participated in the Dubai Airshow 2023 exhibition.
Even though no Belarusian companies participated in the abovementioned event, the Belarusian State Military-Industrial complex delegation under its chairman, Dmitry Pantus, also arrived in UAE.
Pantus also met with al-Bovardi to discuss the state of military-technical cooperation and perspectives for its development. Officially, both sides expressed interest in creating modern high-tech weapons in the future.
A day later (14NOV), the Chairman of the Belarusian State Military-Industrial Committee also met with the UAE Minister of State, Ahmed Ali al-Sayegh. According to the official statement, the meeting occurred to discuss the implementation of bilateral agreements reached during the sixth meeting of the Joint Cooperation Committee (JUN23). Both parties expressed satisfaction with the results and discussed the priority areas for future cooperation.
13-17NOV2023 – Various changes within the Belarusian Armed Forces
On Monday (13NOV), Belarus officially started a project called “Крылья” (wings) meant to support Belarusian law enforcement agencies (including the Belarusian Armed Forces) with UAV capability.
The project assumes that every Belarusian citizen can donate his quadcopter(s) to support the uniformed services in performing their tasks. The idea is directly correlated with recent legislation changes that practically banned the use of UAVs by civilians who don’t have special permission (the issue covered in BSU 25SEP-1OCT).
According to the Belarusian military television VoenTV, five UAVs were donated to the Belarusian Army by Friday (17NOV).
On Tuesday (14NOV), the Head of the Belarusian Clothing Service, Col. Alexey Kovalev, informed about the upcoming changes of the military uniforms used by Belarusian servicemen.
He said the Belarusian Ministry of Defence had prepared a draft decree about introducing and modifying specific clothing items. This pertains to the tactical shirt, a fleece jacket, and a scarf for the combat uniform. Female servicemembers would also be allowed to wear special “military dresses”.
Kovalev conveyed that tactical shirts had already undergone testing by soldiers of the Belarusian Special Operation Forces. Additionally, he mentioned that the MoD had initiated tests for new “experimental socks” and was actively considering incorporating built-in protective elements, such as knee and elbow pads, into trousers and uniforms of combat sets.
The most notable event affecting the sphere of military equipment occurred on Wednesday (15NOV) when the 336th Reactive Artillery Brigade adopted a battalion set of Polonez-M MLRS.
The official induction ceremony engaged the Chief of Belarusian General Staff, Maj. Gen. Viktor Gulevich, accompanied by the former Chief of Communications (and the current First Deputy Chairman of the Belarusian State Military-Industrial Complex) Maj. Gen. Oleg Mischenko.
During its course, the Chief of Belarusian General Staff highlighted that Belarusian leadership focused on developing the missile troops and artillery. According to him, this results from a detailed study of the ongoing armed conflicts.
Gulevich also recalled when, seven years ago, the 336th Reactive Artillery Brigade received its first Polonez MLRS battalion-set. He observed the system’s enhanced land forces’ combat capabilities, enabling high-precision strikes on the operational-level depth, reaching up to 300 kilometres. The Chief of Belarusian General Staff also thanked State Military-Industrial Complex representatives for their significant contribution to the modernisation of missile and artillery forces’ military equipment.
The delivery of the new Polonez battalion set suggests that a new MLRS battalion was established within the 336th Reactive Artillery Brigade. As such, the unit may now field two Polonez battalions (12 launchers) and three 300-mm BM-30 Smerch-equipped battalions (36 launchers).
On the other hand, considering earlier information about the possible introduction of Polonez MLR systems to the 231st Artillery Brigade, it can’t be ruled out that one of the Polonez battalions will be transferred to the abovementioned formation soon.
Also on Wednesday (15NOV), the Belarusian Hajun published a text about a potential modernisation of Belarusian Armed Forces T-72 tanks to the “national” T-72BM2 standard.
According to the text, the Belarusian Army fields about 1200 various T-72 tanks (theoretically 1317, practically less due to their transfer to the Russian Armed Forces) grouped in eight tank battalions (248) and remaining in storage bases.
Based on the earlier data linked to the modernisation capabilities of the Belarusian State Military-Industrial Complex (“20-30 tanks per year”), the modernisation of existing separate tank battalions would take three to five years. Hajun also asserted that the modernisation process of a single tank would cost about USD1 million.
On Friday (17NOV), the Belarusian Prime Minister, Roman Golovchenko and the Chairman of the State-Military Industrial Complex, Dmitry Pantus, participated in the final tests of the Belarusian-made Sapfir (Sapphire) grenade launcher held at the 227th Combined Arms Training Ground.
During their course, Pantus informed that testing had extended over more than 20 months, encompassing at least 500 practical launches. He pointed out that the Belarusian State-Military Industrial Complex is presently acquiring the necessary equipment for the mass production of the mentioned system, which is expected to be available between JAN24 and FEB24.
The Chairman of the State-Military Industrial Complex stated that this acquisition would enable the commencement of production between MAY24 and JUN24. The plan is for Belarus to manufacture 1,500 grenade launchers initially, gradually increasing this number to 3,000 Saphirs annually. Additionally, Pantus noted that every element of the Saphir, excluding explosive materials, is produced domestically.
14-17NOV2023 – The summary of the 2022/2023 academic year
Last week, most of the Belarusian military representative’s activity pertained to the official gatherings to summarise the end of the 2022/2023 military academic year and subsequently set tasks for the 2023/2024 year.
Such events occurred almost daily since Tuesday (14NOV).
On this day, they occurred at the 147th Air Defence Regiment’s and 30th Railway Brigade’s bases. At the first location, the Chief of Engineering Service of the Western Operational Command (OC), Col. Sergey Kolos, led a gathering for engineering service representatives and commanders of the engineering battalions of the Western OC (at least 20 officers). The meeting at the 30th Railway Brigade engaged an unspecified number of ideological officers of the Belarusian Transport Troops.
On Wednesday (15NOV), three more summarising events took place.
The first occurred in the 38th Air Assault Brigade, where the Belarusian Special Operation Forces (SOF) Commander, Maj. Gen. Vadim Denisenko gave a report linked to the SOF activity and awarded servicemen who achieved the best results during their military service.
The second at the Minsk Military Commandant’s Office was dedicated to the representatives of the Belarusian military commissariats and the abovementioned Dog Training Center of the Belarusian Armed Forces.
According to the official statement, the gathering included a detailed analysis of successes and shortcomings in the previous academic year. It also contributed to developing a “common approach” to solving the tasks in the 2023/2024 academic year, which will be “the year of field training”.
The third summarising gathering occurred in the 1st Air Defence Regiment and was led by the unit commander, Col. Dmitry Sadovsky.
On Thursday (16NOV), three more analogical gatherings took place.
Initially, the Chief of Staff of the Belarusian Rear (First Deputy Head of the Rear),
Maj. Gen. Alexander Molosov led an event dedicated to the servicemen of the rear formations. The meeting also involved the Head of the Transport Troops, Maj. Gen. Yuri Shaplavsky and presumably more than 200 officers.
According to the official statement, Molosov pointed out several military units/formations (or bodies) which achieved the best results during the previous academic year.
This refers to the following:
Rear Support Detachment of the Belarusian Special Operation Forces;
Transport Support Department of the Belarusian MoD;
Rear Directorate and Medical Service of the Western Operational Command;
2657th and 2766 Petroleum, Oil and Lubricants Bases;
3540th Food Supply Base;
2336th Clothing Storage Base;
432nd Main Military Clinical Medical Center;
65th Automobile Brigade;
Bobruisk Operational Directorate (Бобруйское эксплуатационное управлениевооруженных сил);
Two more gatherings involved personnel of the 111th Artillery Brigade and 78th Mechanised Battalion (6th Mechanised Brigade). According to available data, the 2nd Motor Rifle Company of the latter subunit received the best results during training actions of the 2022/2023 academic year.
A day later (17NOV), the last summaries of the work of the 49th Radiotechnical and the 120th Air Defence Brigades occurred.
Subsequently (17NOV), the Belarusian MoD organised a ceremonial event at the Central Officer’s House Officers to present awards for military formations (units) commanders who achieved the best results during their service.
Six of them received officer’s daggers:
The Chief of Belarusian General Staff – Maj. Gen. Viktor Gulevich;
The Commander of Belarusian Special Operation Forces – Maj. Gen. Vadim Denisenko;
The Head of the Belarusian Military Academy – Maj. Gen. Gennady Lepeshko;
Commander of the 5th Spetsnaz Brigade – Col. Alexey Khuzyakhmetov;
Commander of the 11th Mechanised Brigade – Lt. Col. Sergey Shilin;
Commander of the 116th Assault Aviation Base – Col. Alexander Kriviets;
The Head of the Belarusian MoD who led the event delivered a speech in which he asserted that the last academic year had been challenging. Nonetheless, he stated that the representatives of the Belarusian military leadership successfully accomplished their paramount task: maintaining peace on Belarusian soil. He also emphasised that despite facing numerous adversaries, Belarus continued to uphold its sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity, and constitutional order.
An anti-air battalion of the 11th Mechanised Brigade was chosen as the best anti-air subunit of the Belarusian Army.
14-18NOV2023 – The personnel changes in the Belarusian Armed Forces
Last week also saw some personnel changes within the Belarusian Armed Forces.
On Tuesday (14NOV), more than 100 of this year’s conscripts arrived at the 49th Radiotechnical Brigade, where they started their military service in the 49th Radiotechnical Brigade.
On Wednesday (15NOV), at least 16 officers were promoted to colonel.
Two days later (17NOV), the Belarusian Ministry of Defence informed about the recent introduction of a new military position – an instructor for working with religious personnel. According to the official statement, the mentioned position was created on 1NOV and is dedicated to clergymen with spiritual education who are fit for military service.
As noted, they will be responsible for participating in servicemen’s spiritual and moral education. Notably, six such service members have already been appointed to such positions.
It can be added that, presumably, more than 100 Minsk Military Commandant’s Office soldiers started their contract service on Saturday (18NOV) when they took the military oath.
16-17NOV2023 – The international activity of the Belarusian military officials
Apart from the abovementioned visit to the United Arab Emirates, representatives of the Belarusian Armed Forces also participated in a few more international events.
On Thursday (16NOV), several International Military Cooperation Department representatives, including its head, Col. Valery Revenko, met with Maj. Gen. Saad Alkathiri as a part of his accreditation process as the Saudi Arabian Military Attaché to Belarus.
According to the published statement, Revenko participated in a “constructive and fruitful” meeting with Alkathiri. Officially, they made “specific agreements” regarding the development of bilateral military cooperation.
A day later (17NOV), the Belarusian MoD confirmed the successful finish of Alkathiri’s accreditation procedure. The same source also noted that it was the first such accreditation since the establishment of diplomatic relations between Belarus and Saudi Arabia (1997).
On Thursday (16NOV), the Belarusian Ministry of Defence also informed about the briefing of the CSTO Joint Staff, Col. Gen. Anatoly Sidorov, to summarise the recent “Combat Brotherhood-2023” exercise. It is possible that the gathering occurred in the videoconference format. Nevertheless, the official MoD’s statement did not specify its character or who was involved in it.
Military exercises
13-17NOV2023 – The training activity of the Belarusian Armed Forces
The general training tempo of the Belarusian Armed Forces was minimal last week. Most training events engaged conscripted soldiers and pertained to basic training.
Nevertheless, some events to check the training level of contract soldiers were organised.
On Monday (13NOV), the 38th Air Assault Brigade hosted its own hand-to-hand fighting competition involving more than 70 servicemen competing in seven weight categories.
Between Tuesday (14NOV) and Wednesday (15NOV), another hand-to-hand competition was held at the 361st Security and Maintenance Base. It was dedicated to the personnel of the centrally subordinated formations.
Also on Wednesday (15NOV), the 30th Railway Brigade started a technical inspection of fielded equipment, engaging more than 180 military vehicles. On the same day, the 6th Mechanised Brigade hosted an unspecified training class with about 12 artillery officers.
Two more training events occurred between Thursday (16NOV) and Friday (17NOV). On Thursday, probably contract personnel of an unspecified battalion of the 11th Mechanised Brigade underwent training classes. A day later (17NOV), sergeants of the 120th Mechanised Brigade participated in methodological gathering to prepare them for the organisation of the combat training measures in the next academic year.
13-19NOV2023 – Noteworthy movements of Belarusian military equipment
Last week, five noteworthy ground movements of the Belarusian military equipment occurred:
Monday (13NOV):
A column with at least three trucks and a single Bogatyr vehicle headed towards Stolbtsy from Dzyarzhynsk;
Three MAZ-6425 vehicles with 12 S-300/S-400 missile containers (four containers each – presumably 15th Air Defence Brigade) were moving on the M14 highway near Vasilyevshchyna (direction unspecified);
Thursday (16NOV):
Four BM-21 launchers were moving from Stolbtsy towards Baranovichi;
Four covered MAZ trucks, a single MAZ bus and four police vans were moving on Minsk’s MKAD;
Friday (17NOV):
A single BTR APC, BM-21 launcher, as well as an unspecified truck towing a howitzer, were seen on the M4 highway from Privolnyi towards Minsk;
Russian military activity in Belarus
Over the past seven days, it is possible to point out only two noteworthy actions of Russian Armed Forces servicemen in Belarus.
It pertains to the arrival of Russian IL-76 aircraft to the Machulischy Air Base reported on Tuesday (14NOV) and possible flights of unspecified Russian airframes from Baranovichi Air Base that occurred a day later (15NOV).
On Monday (13NOV) and Tuesday (14NOV) an Il-76 and An-26, respectively departed Machulischy Air Base
Wagner PMC activity in Belarus
Last week, no data appeared related to the activity of presence or the Wagner PMC in Belarus.