Belarus Security Update - 14 August - 20 August 2023
BLUF
Last week, the posture of the Belarusian Armed Forces remained unchanged.
Executive summary
Over the past seven days, Belarusian Air Force received several attack helicopters. Moreover, military-political leadership representatives' decisions resulted in personnel changes in the Belarusian Army. They referred both to the high-rank and mid-rank Belarusian officers. Belarusian military formations' training tempo remained high, including important training events such as bilateral command-staff exercises and combat readiness inspections. Belarusian military officials actively participated in the "Army-2023" International Military-Technical Forum and XI Moscow International Security Conference.
On the other hand, the actions of the Russian Armed Forces remained almost unnoticed. Though, additional Russian forces arrived later in the week in preparation for the upcoming Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) drills planned for SEP23. Wagner PMC members continued their training with Belarusian law enforcement agencies.
Political developments
16 – 17AUG2023
Chinese Minister of Defence, Gen. Col. Li Shangfu, visited Minsk
From the political perspective, a Chinese delegation's visit with at least a dozen senior officers led by the Chinese Minister of Defence, Gen. (Gen. Col.) Li Shangfu was undoubtedly the most important event last week.
The delegation arrived on Wednesday (16AUG) when Shangfu landed onboard a civilian Russian Aeroflot (RA-73739) flight at Minsk National Airport. After a welcoming ceremony, he attended a bilateral meeting with his Belarusian counterpart, Lt. Gen. Viktor Khrenin.
During the meeting, Khrenin focused on the issue of bilateral cooperation between both states. He claimed that Belarus and China had reached an unprecedented (high) partnership level. He also assured that relations with China are one of the most important priorities of Belarusian foreign policy, especially since China played a vital role in world politics. Khrenin also noted that Belarus and China built their partnership over 31 years of diplomatic relations on traditional friendship and mutual respect. In his opinion, the relations between both states should be an example for many countries.
A central event involving Chinese officials occurred a day later (17AUG) when the Head of the Chinese MoD met Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.
The Belarusian leader started with a long monologue to his Chinese guest. After calling Li Shangfu "the most medial (central) person in the world" (due to the "great activity of both the Minister and China linked to promoting interests and intentions on the world"), he pointed out that Belarusian and Chinese ideas on the current and future world were the same. This refers to a multipolar world that supports territorial integrity with borders established after WWII. According to the Belarusian President, both countries opted for non-interference regarding the state's internal affairs, as demonstrated over the last 30 years.
During the meeting, Lukashenko stressed that the modern world had become unstable, which, in turn, created the need to be strong. He claimed Belarusian policy was based on a strong economy and assertive diplomacy. He expressed gratitude towards the Chinese official for support in the military and military-technical sphere. Lukashenko also stressed the importance of Li Shangfu's visit but noted that the Chinese-Belarusian cooperation would not be directed "against third countries".
On the other hand, Li Shangfu thanked for the opportunity to meet Lukashenko. He said Lukashenko was Belarus's ruler, reaching great success during his political career. Shangfu also spoke about recent Lukashenko's visit to China. As noted, he arrived in Belarus to concretise earlier strategic-level agreements ("as agreed by the head of states) and to strengthen the development of bilateral military cooperation.
Rochan`s comment:
The reasons behind the Chinese delegations' arrival need to be further confirmed. Based on available reports, we assess that it is likely that the sides mainly spoke about the issues of military-technical cooperation on the back of the FEB-MAR2023 Lukashenko’s trip to China. After recent announcements linked to introducing the B-200 Polonaise MLR system to the 231st Artillery Brigade, the system's potential modernisation (or additional production) with the support of the Chinese military industry is also possible (the system was built mainly on Chinese components). It is also worth mentioning that Belarus and China regularly exchange their delegations and military students. They also plan to undertake joint military drills in 2024.
17AUG2023
Lukashenko’s interview
Also, on Thursday (17AUG), Belarusian media released an extensive interview with Lukashenko. He was interviewed by a Ukrainian journalist Diana Panchenko, who is known for her pro-Russian views. Indeed, she was a TV presenter in Viktor Medvedchuk's media outlets. Medvedchuk was hailed as Zelensky's replacement if the attack on Kyiv had succeeded. Since 15JAN2023, she has been sanctioned by the Ukrainian National Security Council. The Security Service of Ukraine suspected her of producing materials justifying Russian aggression against Ukraine.
Consequently, the interview mainly focused on the issues of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict.
Initially, the Belarusian President spoke about the outbreak of the conflict. According to Lukashenko, he had no prior exact data on when the war would start. Nevertheless, Russian President Vladimir Putin notified him that in case of an "emergency", Belarus would have to support Russia ("as Russia would support Belarus"). However, Belarusian support pertained to "covering Russia back" from a surprise attack from the West, not to participate in the invasion directly.
Speaking about the personality of the Russian leader, Lukashenko noted that Putin constantly analysed the situation and thought ahead but remained very cautious about how the war progressed.
The Belarusian leader rejected the idea that Ukraine was only a part of Putin's overall plan to attack other regional states.
According to him, the Russo-Ukrainian conflict could have been avoided. Lukashenko claimed he had contacted his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, and offered him ways to negotiate out of the situation. Yet, despite this, Lukashenko said that Zelensky, despite his lack of political experience, was not entirely at fault for what happened in FEB22. Ukraine's problems (corruption, oligarchy, lack of consolidation) accumulated throughout the decades and landed on "Zelensky's back", he said.
Referring directly to the war's course, Lukashenko said the Ukrainian Armed Forces was meaningless. Ukraine had already lost most of its motivated and experienced soldiers and could utilise only mobilised citizens who could not reach Russian defensive lines. Notably, the Belarusian President mentioned that a new Russian "corps" totalling 250,000 men remained in reserve, actively preparing to fight.
He also pointed out that Ukraine lost 45,000 KIA and WIA (killed/wounded in action) since the start of the counteroffensive in the South. According to Lukashenko, if the situation remained unchanged, Russian forces could stop the Ukrainian advance and counterattack towards Moldova (to cut Ukraine from the sea). Such a development, he said, could force Poland to intervene to secure ("take back") western parts of Ukraine and make them a part of NATO territory.
Regarding the political situation in Ukraine, Lukashenko noted the decreasing support for Volodymyr Zelensky. According to him, representatives of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, for example, Maj. Gen. Kirillo Budanov (Head of the Ukrainian Military Intelligence Service), could win elections if they were carried out democratically.
The Belarusian leader also pointed out changing attitudes towards the conflict in the West.
As noted, certain Western states were pushing Ukraine towards peace talks with Russia due to the increasing costs of the conflict. However, Lukashenko also claimed that only American opinion matters for the Ukrainian leadership, so peace talks could start only if Washington ordered Zelensky to begin negotiations.
Lukashenko believed that Russia had already achieved the aims of the Russian Special Military Operation because Ukraine would "never be so aggressive towards Russia as before the start of the conflict". Due to that fact, Ukrainians should participate in peace negotiations to avoid further bloodshed.
According to Lukashenko, Belarusian participation in such talks was possible, primarily since Belarus independently had discussions with members of the Ukrainian Military Intelligence Service (HUR).
As noted, they pertained mainly to the potential Belarusian military involvement, deployment of nuclear weapons and the Wagner PMC. These discussions, he said, took place several months ago.
Regarding Belarusian participation in the conflict, Lukashenko claimed that only potential aggression from either Poland and the Baltic States or Ukraine would trigger the employment of the Belarusian Armed Forces, which would also include the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
Lukashenko also commented on the "Wagner PMC mutiny", denying that the event was pre-planned. According to him, the deployment of mercenaries in Belarus was meant to stop fighting inside Russia and was his initiative.
17 - 18AUG2023
2nd International Anti-Fascist Congress
On Thursday (17AUG), the 2nd International Anti-Fascist Congress began in Minsk. Its inauguration involved Belarusian Minister of Defence, Lt. Gen. Viktor Khrenin and his Deputy for Ideological Work, Maj. Gen. Leonid Kasinsky, as well as the officers responsible for historical issues – the Head of the Department for Fatherland Defenders' Memory, Col. Sergey Kornev and the Commander of the 52nd Special Search Battalion, Lt. Andrey Rubin. Representatives of Bulgaria, Azerbaijan, China, Kazakhstan, Russia, Serbia, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan also attended the event.
Several Belarusian military-political officials delivered their statements on the second day of the gathering (18AUG).
Firstly, the Belarusian President sent his welcoming speech to the congress participants.
In the text, he claimed that all good people should unite to create a front against "incendiaries of new world war", who once again raised the banners of fascism and Nazism. Lukashenko pointed out that the United States and its "satellites" were trying to preserve world hegemony and slow down their competitors' development – mainly by destroying the global security system, conducting colour revolutions and starting armed conflicts.
According to the Belarusian President, these actions were currently visible in Ukraine, where a "misanthropic pro-fascist regime has been established", which led to the "civil war". Lukashenko also noted that after tremendous losses suffered during WWII, Belarus always stood for peace, equality and dialogue.
The Secretary of the State Security Council, Lt. Gen. Alexander Volfovich, spoke later.
He highlighted the importance of such events noting that the current military-political situation was "heated to the limit". In his opinion, "heirs of the fascists" unleashed a real hybrid war, which had to be stopped. Volfovich claimed that the Russo-Ukrainian conflict was a war not against the Ukrainian people but against fascism and Nazism that developed in Ukrainian political leaders' heads. He also noted that the unipolar world created by the United States no longer existed.
As expected, the tone of Khrenin's comments was similar. During his speech, he stressed that Western political elites had intensified the use of fascist tools to retain power. They demonstrated impunity to everyone and everything and were trying to "format" the world according to their values, he said. According to Khrenin, Western elites replaced "Aryan standards" with liberal democratic values and transhumanism.
He appealed to the foreign military attaches and diplomats in the room. He noted the necessity of avoiding potential war at all costs and intensifying solving problems through diplomacy. Khrenin pointed out Poland as an example of a state implementing a policy of militaristic and aggressive nationalism.
Rochan`s comment:
We highlight the predictability and repeatability of Belarusian officials' statements. Nonetheless, a slight hostility increase among Belarusian narratives has been observed. Most of it is aimed against Poland, which according to recent "Belarusian data", is actively preparing to invade either western Ukraine or even Belarus in the future.
15AUG2023
Changes to the Resolution on Military Duty and Military Service
On Tuesday (15AUG), the Belarusian Council of Ministers approved amendments to the "Military Duty and Military Service" resolution on the reserve training camps, which increased their length and frequency.
Currently, reserve servicemen could be called up:
Up to five times (instead of three) in the "first category";
Up to three times (instead of two) in the "second category";
Once but presumably without an earlier limit of 35-day-long training in the "third category";
Moreover, reserve officers could be called to attend these camps for 5-10 days across all age categories. Also, the Belarusian KDB (KGB) will conduct its reserve training camps according to the new amendments.
Rochan`s comment:
New amendments will certainly support Belarusian efforts to intensify the training of reserve servicemen. As a result, the military leadership will be able to conduct longer and more frequent exercises, which will undoubtedly positively impact the training level of an average Belarusian reservist. Consequently, this will also increase the readiness of Belarusian military formations.
Military developments
Personnel changes (14AUG)
On Monday (14AUG), Belarusian President transferred the Head of the Main Organisational-Mobilisation Directorate of the Belarusian General Staff, Maj. Gen. Vladislav Budik to the military reserve due to his age. It is unknown who will be nominated as his replacement.
Budik graduated from the Tula Higher Artillery Engineering School. He started his military service in the 361st Security and Maintenance Base. His first position was a training platoon commander before being promoted to the commander of the whole base. Between 2017-2022, he headed the 72nd Joint Training Center. On 29AUG22 he was appointed to the position of the Deputy Chief of Staff (Head of the Main Organisational-Mobilisation Directorate).
Mid-level changes occurred in the 11th Mechanised Brigade. On Monday (14AUG), the Commander of the Western Operational Command, Col. Vladimir Bely, visited the formation. During his visit, he presented a new battalion chief of staff. It is unclear which battalion this change pertained to or what the officer's name was.
Belarusian delegation visit to Russia (14-16AUG)
Between Monday (14AUG) and Wednesday (16AUG), the official Belarusian delegation took part in the "Army-2023" International Military-Technical Forum and XI Moscow International Security Conference. It involved both military representatives and officials from the State Military Industrial Complex.
The Belarusian delegation was divided into two "teams" led by Khrenin. The first involved military personnel, including the Chief of Armaments, Maj. Gen. Alexander Fedin, the Head of the International Military Cooperation Department, Col. Valery Revenko and two senior officers. The second delegation involved representatives from the Belarusian domestic defence industry.
Khrenin delivered his speech during the opening ceremony, where he spoke mainly about the current political-military situation in the world. Army Forum became a symbol of strategic partnership between countries pursuing their sovereignty and independence despite the pressure from "the collective West". In Khrenin's opinion, the annual exhibition provided a unique opportunity for professional discussion. It also allowed the exchange of experience and to study the latest achievements linked to modernising and producing various weapon systems and special equipment. Khrenin also pointed out the possibility of jointly finding ways to solve "the most complex problems related to national, regional and global security", highlighting fruitful military cooperation between Belarus and Russia as an example.
Later in the day (14AUG), Khrenin also participated in two official meetings.
Firstly, he met with Russian Minister of Defence Sergey Shoigu to discuss military and military-technical cooperation between their states. Secondly, he attended the meeting with his Vietnamese counterpart, Fan Van Zang.
According to the official statement, Belarusian and Vietnamese delegations spoke about the current situation in the world and exchanged their views on the military-political situation in Europe. Both ministers expressed mutual interest in the intensification of military contacts.
No details on the meeting with Shoigu were provided.
At the same time, the Chairman of the Belarusian State Military Industrial Complex (second delegation), Dmitry Pantus, attended a few official talks.
His team met with the Russian Director of the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation, Dmitry Shugaev, to discuss cooperation "in the current geopolitical environment". Later, Pantus met with representatives of Russian Roskosmos and discussed "promising cooperation projects in the space sector".
On (15AUG), Lukashenko gave a short speech to the XI Moscow International Security Conference (MISC) participants. His speech was focused on Russo-Belarusian cooperation.
Belarus supported peace but also fulfilled international obligations as a part of the Union State. Belarus was strengthening the bilateral cooperation to fight against various "transnational challenges and threats". Lukashenko brought the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons to the state as an example of "an adequate reaction" measure to the accelerated militarisation of eastern Europe and the increasing activity of the NATO forces. In his view, these Belarusian actions do not cancel earlier Belarusian peace initiatives, which could benefit the whole planet.
Khrenin also delivered similar statements during the XI MISC but mainly repeated his earlier comments about the collective West. He said many countries were forced to fight for their independence and sovereignty against Western states. The struggle of "global confrontation" (between West and East) was taking place in Ukraine. However, this proxy war put the world on the brink of WW3. He stressed that the Western idea of liberal globalisation had not solved the world's inequality problem but was used purely to establish a new "neocolonial regime" governed by a few countries.
Some Western politicians behaved like "medieval slave traders" and offered their people to the "meat grinder". The West was "zombifying" its citizens to prepare them to kill their eastern neighbours. It can't be ruled out that a 300,000-strong NATO grouping of forces will appear to attack Belarus and Russia in the future, Khrenin stressed.
On the next two days (15AUG and 16AUG), Dmitry Pantus held the following meetings:
On Tuesday (15AUG), he met:
General Director of JSC Russian "Rosoboronexport" (main state-controlled military technology intermediary) Alexander Mikheev.
General Director of the JSC "NPK Uralvagonzavod" (one of the leading producers of Russian tanks and artillery assets) Alexander Potapov.
General Director of the PJSC "UAC" (United Aircraft Corporation – including more than 30 major Russian air enterprises – Sukhoi, MiG, Il, Tu, Yak, etc.) Yuri Slyusar.
Iranian Deputy Minister of Defence and Support of the Armed Forces for Logistics S. Goreishi.
The first three meetings pertained to potential cooperation between Belarusian and Russian enterprises in specialised areas (weapons export and development, production and modernisation of heavy equipment and air assets). The last one was related to the military-technical cooperation between Belarus and Iran.
A day later (16AUG), Pantus met with the Minister of Defense of Myanmar, Adm. Tin Aung San, to discuss "promising cooperation projects" and the General Director of the Russian "National Aviation-Service Company" (NASC), Alexey Alyoshin. During the first meeting, he agreed on consultations necessary for the practical implementation of these unspecified projects. The second meeting discussed the further interaction of Belarusian aircraft repair facilities with Russian NACS.
Mi-35 procurement (17AUG)
On Wednesday (17AUG), the Belarusian Air and Air Defence Forces received four new Mi-35M attack helicopters. Airframes flew from Rostov and will be inducted into the 50th Mixed Aviation Base stationed at the Machulishchy Air Base. As the Chief of Belarusian Aviation, Col. Leonid Davidovich, noted, the Mi-35M helicopters only seemed similar to the older Mi-24 helicopters. However, these new Belarusian helicopters were equipped with the latest electronics and modern onboard systems, significantly improving existing capabilities.
The Belarusian Hajun team reported that recent flights of Belarusian Il-76 cargo aircraft (12AUG and 16AUG) could be related to the introduction of new helicopters - Belarusians likely flew to Rostov to transfer pilots trained in Russia to pilot Mi-35s.
Day of the Belarusian Air Force (18AUG)
On Friday (18AUG), the Belarusian military representatives celebrated the upcoming Day of the Belarusian Air Force (annually held on the third Sunday of AUG – 20AUG this year). Khrenin, the Belarusian Air Force and Air Defence Forces Commander, Maj. Gen. Andrey Lukyanovich attended celebrations at Heroes' Square in Machulischy.
The service organised an air parade, which included helicopters (Mi-8MTV-5 and Mi-24), followed by An-26 cargo, as well as L-39 and Yak-130 training aircraft. Then Su-25 and Su-30SM aircraft flew in, followed by Il-76MD and Tu-134A aircraft. In addition, Belarusian officers conducted a few parachute jumps with flags.
Military exercises
Last week, the Belarusian Armed Forces presented a high exercise tempo. Although the number of events decreased compared to the previous period, their importance increased.
14-17AUG2023
On Monday, the Commander of the North-Western Operational Command (NW-OC), Maj. Gen. Alexander Naumenko started a bilateral command-staff exercise of the 19th and 120th Mechanised Brigades. Officially, the exercise was carried out as per the Training Plan of the NW-OC for 2022/2023. It sought to test the C2 and unit's abilities to undertake defensive operations. The drill occurred at the 227th Combined Arms Training Ground and lasted until Thursday (17AUG).
On Tuesday (15AUG), the Special Purpose Medical Detachment of the 432nd Main Military Clinical Medical Center (MMCMC) departed from the home garrison to provide medical support for troops in the field. Elements of the MMCMC may have arrived at the 227th Combined Arms Training Ground to provide support for the 19th and 120th Mechanised Brigades involved in the bilateral command-staff exercise. The same range likely hosted independent drills of the 339th Mechanised Battalion (120th Mechanised Brigade) linked to the fire and tactical training and the BTR-82A driving across a water obstacle. These were held on Tuesday (15AUG) and Thursday (17AUG).
14-18AUG2023
Between Monday and presumably Friday, more than 100 officers-graduates of Belarusian Special Operation Forces (SOF) underwent training gatherings held based on the 38th Air Assault Brigade. Notably, representatives of the SOF leadership (including SOF Commander Maj. Gen. Vadim Denisenko) also attended the event. During its course, lieutenants got acquainted with modern samples of Belarusian SOF equipment and underwent a series of practical drills, including parachute jumps from the Mi-8 helicopter (16AUG).
14AUG2023
The Commander of the Western OC, Col. Vladimir Bely, commenced a tactical exercise with live ammo firing of the 147th Air Defence Regiment. Subunits of the regiment (equipped with OSA anti-air systems) started their drills at the Chepelevo Training Ground, where they crossed water obstacles. A day later (15AUG), they continued practical drills, which involved forward air observers ("передовой авианаводчик") of the 11th Mechanised Brigade.
14AUG2023
On Monday (14AUG), Chief of Armaments, Maj. Gen. Alexader Fedin started yet another combat readiness check involving an unspecified 288th Motor Transport Reserve Base subunit.
According to the official statement, the drill sought to determine the ability to perform intended tasks after the subunit had been reinforced with additional personnel and special military equipment. It is unclear how long the drill will last, but it is meant to finish with the special-tactical exercise of the subunit.
At the same time, elements of the 557th Engineering Brigade and 814th Technical Support Center conducted their independent field exits.
15AUG2023
Elements of the 6th Mechanised Brigade also trained at the Domanovo Training Ground, where combat launches of an anti-air battalion occurred on Tuesday (15AUG), and presumably at the mentioned Gozhsky Training Ground, where reconnaissance battalion and 2S1 subunit of the 350th Artillery Group commenced training two days later (17AUG).
16AUG2023
On Wednesday (16AUG), elements of the 48th Electronic Warfare Battalion also departed from the permanent deployment area to participate in a special-tactical exercise of the Western Operational Command involving reconnaissance (sub)units. A day later (17AUG), soldiers of the 202nd Mechanised Battalion of the 6th Mechanised Brigade were also deployed to the Gozhsky Training Ground
17AUG2023
On Thursday, soldiers of the 202nd Mechanised Battalion of the 6th Mechanised Brigade were also deployed to the Gozhsky Training Ground. A reconnaissance battalion and 2S1 subunit of the 350th Artillery Group also trained there.
Rochan`s comment:
In our assessment, the subject undertaking was carried out as a concluding exercise of the brigade's training phase, in which the main participants, following the adoption of a bilateral exercise format, were the 19th and 120th Mechanised Brigades.
Noteworthy troop movements
Monday (14AUG):
More than 20 trucks, three Volat vehicles, six towed D-30 howitzers, and a few Kayman reconnaissance vehicles were moving in Brest;
Four MAZ trucks with a single Kamaz and several trailers were moving in Baranovichi;
Tuesday (15AUG):
More than ten fuel trucks were moving from Brest towards Baranovichi;
Two columns, including more than 70 vehicles (various trucks with field kitchens, fuel trucks, and engineering vehicles), were moving to Ivatschevichy from Baranovichi;
Friday (18AUG):
At least 15 trucks departed South from Grodno;
Also on Friday (15AUG), an echelon carrying a 9K33 Osa battery was reported at Lesnaya Railway Station. The train carried five (?) 9A33B TELAR vehicles, four 9T217 transloader vehicles, PPRU-M1 (PPRU-M1-2) command centre vehicle, and a few trucks.
Over the past seven days, a few noteworthy movements of Belarusian military equipment appeared.
Russian military activity in Belarus
Last week, the general activity of the Russian forces in Belarus remained minimal.
17AUG2023
Just one aircraft landing was reported. It pertained to the Tu-154M aircraft (RA-85042) that landed at the Machulischy Air Base on Thursday.
18AUG2023
One military train was observed at the Brest-Yuzhnyy Railway Station on Friday. The train likely carried equipment and soldiers earmarked for the upcoming CSTO "Interaction-2023" exercise (1SEP-6SEP). It has already been reported that elements of the Belarusian Armed Forces will participate in several other specialised drills - Search-2023 (reconnaissance forces), Echelon-2023 (logistic forces), Barrier-2023 (NBC protection and medical forces) and Skala-2023 (Ministry of Emergencies forces) over the next couple of months. According to the Belarusian Hajun, most activities will likely be organised at the Brestsky Training Ground.
On Monday, the same source published some data related to laundry services of Belarus SOF servicemen at the Zyabrorvka and Veliky Bokov Air Bases. It confirms that Belarusian SOF forces provide guard services to Russian S-400s deployed at both sites.
Wagner PMC activity in Belarus
Last week almost no information about the presence of Wagner forces in Belarus was provided.
However, the Belarusian Hajun team summarised data on their presence in Belarus (16AUG). They said about 4,000-4,500 "Wagnerites" were deployed in the state. Notably, no noteworthy movements of the Wagner PMC fighters (inside and outside the state) occurred since their arrival.
Last week, Wagner personnel was seen in Barysaw and near the 1371st Engineering Base, where they likely participated in joint exercises with Belarusian OMON two days later (18AUG).
Rochan`s assessment:
Over the past decade, we have observed that Belarus and Russia organised a series of exercises for individual types of military forces before conducting strategic-level exercises. The currently announced exercises, in which elements of the Belarusian Armed Forces are set to participate, appear to confirm this pattern;
We assess that these drills, involving Belarusian, Russian, and other CSTO member states' units, will be conducted before the main exercise of Russian and Belarusian forces composing the Regional Grouping of Forces;
Considering that the 19th and 20th Mechanised Brigades have consistently been involved in exercises with Russian Western Military District’s units, it is reasonable to assume that elements of these Belarusian units will participate in the upcoming exercise;
Because the Wagner Group forces are actively taking part in various exercises with Belarusians in Belarus, we cannot rule out that after their completion, Moscow may attempt to exert greater pressure on Minsk and deploy some Wagner elements near the border with Ukraine (in Belarus) to force Kyiv to react; Currently, we assess that a Wagner/Russian or Belarusian attack from Belarus is highly unlikely.