Belarus Security Update – 16 October – 22 October 2023
Analysis of main political-military developments in Belarus
BLUF
No major changes in the posture of the Belarusian Armed Forces occurred last week.
Executive summary
Last week brought several noteworthy events affecting the Belarusian security sphere, although the overall posture of the Belarusian military remained unchanged.
Putting aside the heightened international activity of the Belarusian President and military diplomats, it must be noted that the highest Belarusian generals went to Moscow, where they signed a joint cooperation plan for 2024.
The Belarusian Armed Forces started to release conscripts who finished their military service, although a dozen servicemen were also promoted to the Colonel rank.
Belarusian military officials paid particular attention to the issues of combat training last week. Selected military formations underwent a series of drills resulting from the continuation of the combat readiness check of the Belarusian Armed Forces.
Nevertheless, the general activity of Belarusian soldiers decreased later in the week, when most Belarusian servicemen were somewhat involved in the celebrations of the Day of Signal Troops (20OCT), as well as the Belarusian Father’s Day (21OCT).
Over the past seven days, elements of the Russian Armed Forces deployed in Belarus were slightly more active than two weeks ago. Also, some movements of the Wagner PMC mercenaries occurred in the state.
Political developments
17OCT2023 – The visit of the Iranian Vice President
On Tuesday (17OCT), the Iranian Vice President, Mohammad Mohber, arrived in Belarus. He landed on an Airbus A321 aircraft (EP-IGD) at Minsk National Airport. Shortly after the arrival, Mohber met with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to discuss bilateral cooperation and the current international situation.
During the gathering, Lukashenko initially expressed his hopes about the practical results of the meeting and spoke about the common (western) “pressure” on Iran and Belarus. He highlighted the Iranian experience of resisting it and pointed out its importance for the Belarusian side.
Nevertheless, the Belarusian leader emphasised that time should be given greater consideration than Western pressure and sanctions. He stated that Belarus and Iran should avoid expending time on bureaucratic hurdles that could impact their cooperation, particularly given the current intensification of the military-political situation. Lukashenko cited the hostile actions of the West and the United States against Iran to illustrate this argument and highlighted the need for enhanced bilateral cooperation to counteract such actions in the future.
19OCT2023 – The official suspension of the CFE Treaty
On Thursday (19OCT), the Belarusian House of Representatives of the National Assembly officially adopted a draft law, “On suspension of CFE Treaty in regard to Poland and the Czech Republic“, introduced recently by the Belarusian Council of Ministers (19SEP).
According to the official statement, this measure should be considered as “retaliatory”, resulting from analogical decisions implemented by Poland (MAR23) and the Czech Republic (AUG22).
The Head of the International Military Cooperation Department (IMCD), Col. Valery Revenko, emphasised that the decision in question did not alter the execution of the CFE Treaty concerning other nations, as well as other international agreements within the realm of arms control.
19OCT2023 – Law changes for conscripts and reservists
Also, on Thursday (19OCT), the Belarusian National Legal Internet Portal published information about a draft law, “On Amendments to Laws on National Security Issues”, which visibly increases liability for evading conscription or not appearing in the military commissariat after receiving a summon.
Firstly, the document changed the criminal liability for draft evasion from two to three years of probation/imprisonment. Secondly, it modified the fines’ values, increasing them three to five times.
If a citizen fails to attend conscription “events”, he will pay up to 112-337 USD (instead of the earlier 56 USD). If he violates “obligations of the military registration”, he will be fined up to 281 USD (instead of the earlier 33 USD). This also refers to officials who will do the same (45-56 USD > 337 USD) or will not notify citizens about their summons (33 USD > 225 USD, or even 45-56 USD > 337 USD if repeated).
Military developments
17-20OCT2023 – Belarusian military officials and the issues of combat training
Last week, representatives of the Belarusian Ministry of Defence (MoD) and the General Staff (GS) presented visible activity regarding combat training of the Belarusian Armed Forces.
On Tuesday (17OCT), several Belarusian generals and dozens of senior officers took part in the analytical meeting meant to summarise the course of the bilateral exercise of the Belarusian Armed Forces.
The event occurred in the Central House of Officers under the leadership of the Chief of Belarusian General Staff, Maj. Gen. Viktor Gulevich. No details linked to its course appeared, and some published materials were partially censored.
Nonetheless, partially visible monitors seem to confirm that the exercise was meant to prepare the Belarusian Armed Forces to act directly near the Polish border – specifically, near the so-called “Suwałki Gap”.
A day later (18OCT), the Secretary of the Belarusian State Security Council, Lt. Gen. Alexander Volfovich, arrived at the Gozhsky Training Ground, where he watched practical actions conducted as a part of the ongoing combat readiness check of the Belarusian Armed Forces’s Western Operational Command (OC).
Interestingly, Volfovich mentioned that “such checks” were already being carried out systematically throughout the year as directed by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.
He explained that they were intended to assess the readiness of Belarusian servicemen to fulfil their designated tasks.
The Secretary of the Belarusian State Security Council emphasised that the ongoing assessment was characterised by the need for combined marches. He also mentioned a particular focus on the use of assault aviation. It was noted that the Wagner PMC mercenaries participated in the exercises and actively supported Belarusian servicemen.
On Thursday (19OCT), Volfovich conducted an analogical inspection in the North-Western OC, accompanied by the Command’s commander, Maj. Gen. Alexander Naumenko.
During the visit, Naumenko stated that these “sudden” checks were deemed essential for the readiness of military formations and units to respond promptly, particularly given the challenging and potentially dangerous political-military circumstances surrounding Belarus.
The Commander of the North-Western OC highlighted that the Secretariat of the Belarusian State Security Council was directly evaluating the forces under his command. These forces were undergoing a thorough evaluation of their capabilities, enabling an in-depth assessment of every soldier, subunit, and the entire formation.
On Friday (20OCT), Gulevich and the Head of the Main Combat Training Directorate (MCTD), Maj. Gen. Alexander Bas arrived at the 8th NBC Protection Brigade to observe the final unspecified combat training episode.
According to the official statement, it referred to new methods and forms of military training but also included control classes to summarise and check soldiers’ combat training levels after the outgoing academic year.
The Head of the MCTD noted that the evolving situation around Belarus necessitated the exploration of novel approaches to deploying and using military formations and units. He mentioned that the Belarusian Armed Forces had recently reviewed their regulations and legal framework on combat training, incorporating new methodological recommendations influenced by the lessons learned from the Russo-Ukrainian conflict.
In this regard, it is worth mentioning unofficial data, which appeared last week. According to unverified information, an unspecified Belarusian mechanised battalion finished a combat training course based on a fortification complex near Saki (part of the so-called “Khrenin’s line”).
As noted, all Belarusian battalion tactical groups of the Western OC would undergo such training courses in the next academic year (2023/2024). This might suggest that the subunit of the formation subordinated to the same command (6th or 11th Mechanised Brigades) had already finished the training. Due to the location of these fortifications, mechanised battalions (40th or 105th) of the 11th Mechanised Brigade were likely the ones involved in the abovementioned drill.
We also want to stress that the 355th Tank Battalion of the 120th Mechanised Brigade was reportedly at constant combat readiness status.
17-20OCT2023 – The international activity of the Belarusian military officials
Last week, representatives of the Belarusian Armed Forces were active internationally and mostly engaged personnel from the International Military Cooperation Department (IMCD).
Between Tuesday (17OCT) and Wednesday (18OCT), an unspecified Belarusian military representative (most likely an IMCD officer) participated in the inspection of Serbian Armed Forces military infrastructure held per the Dayton Agreement.
On Thursday (19OCT), two International Military Cooperation Department officers met with the Malesian Military Attache – officially to discuss the future development of bilateral military cooperation between the states.
Subsequently, the Head of the IMCD, Col. Valery Revenko, provided data about the opening of the Belarusian auditorium at the National University of Kazakhstan. It seems likely that a single representative of the IMCD also attended this event:
On Friday (20OCT), International Military Cooperation Department officers participated in the working trip of 12 foreign military attaches to Barysaw.
During its course, foreign military diplomats arrived at the 72nd Joint Training Center, where formation commander Col. Vadim Surov likely acquainted them with the tasks and structure of the centre. Afterwards, they went to the 2566th Radioelectronic Armament Repair Plant, responsible for repairing and maintaining Belarusian anti-air and air defence assets.
According to Revenko, attaches from NATO member states (excluding Turkey) were not invited to this event.
On Friday (20OCT), a senior IMCD officer met with the Cuban Military, Naval and Air Attache to Belarus, Col. Monica Milian Gomez. Officially, parties spoke about the upcoming events of bilateral military cooperation.
17-20OCT2023 – Personnel fluctuation in the Belarusian Armed Forces
Last week, certain Belarusian military formations started to release conscripted service members who finished their military service. Usually, this happens during official ceremonies, which include the presentation of diplomas, awards and small gifts. A characteristic gift is the so-called “merch of the first”, which is usually a t-shirt with Lukashenko quotes or pictures printed on it, for instance, him holding an assault rifle.
On Tuesday (17OCT), the first such event occurred in the Belarusian Military Academy (BMA) and involved 35-40 conscripts who received awards from the First Deputy Head of the BMA, Col. Igor Kozlov.
Three days later (20OCT), the Commander of the Belarusian Special Operation Forces (SOF), Maj. Gen. Vadim Denisenko led the farewell ceremony for SOF conscripts at the Belarusian Museum of the Great Patriotic War. This event may have involved about 20-25 servicemen.
Subsequently, at least 20 conscripts participated in an analogical event in the 111th Artillery Brigade.
On Saturday (21OCT), such events involved personnel of the 74th Communications Regiment, 5th Spetsnaz Brigade (engaging presumably about 100 servicemen), as well as servicemen of the 72nd Joint Training Center (at least 60-70 men) and the Minsk Military Commandant’s Office (at least 40-60 soldiers).
On the other hand, on Thursday (19OCT), the Belarusian Minister of Defence promoted 15 officers (including four officers of the Air Force and Air Defence Forces) to Colonels.
Shortly after, Khrenin led another “wider” ceremony presenting state awards and medals for selected Belarusian service members. This refers to more than 180 soldiers and officers, including the Spokesperson of Belarusian MoD, Lt. Col. Inna Gorbacheva.
18OCT2023 – The international cooperation of the Belarusian Armed Forces
On Wednesday (18OCT), the delegation of Belarusian MoD and General Staff headed by the Belarusian Minister of Defence participated in the joint board of Russian and Belarusian MoDs held in Moscow.
Several Belarusian Generals and high-rank officers attended the gathering, including Deputy Minister of Defence, Maj. Gen. Andrey Zhuk, Deputy Minister of Defence for Ideological Work, Maj. Gen. Leonid Kasinsky, the Belarusian Air Force and Air Defence Forces Commander, Maj. Gen. Andrey Lukyanovich and the Deputy Minister of Defence for Logistics, Maj. Gen. Andrey Burdyko, Chief of Armaments, Maj. Gen. Andrey Fedin, the Head of Military Inspection, Maj. Gen. Andrey Gorbatenko.
According to the official statement, the meeting allowed to exchange views and make decisions related to joint defence policy and military cooperation between Belarus and Russia.
Officially, participants discussed the following issues:
The implementation of the joint measures plan to ensure the Union State military security in the 2022-2024 period;
The activity of the joint combat-training centres of the air force and air defence forces;
The (potential) use of the Regional Grouping of Forces;
The Interaction in the electronic warfare (EW) sphere;
Bilateral cooperation meant to counter history falsifying attempts;
During the event, the Belarusian Minister of Defence delivered his speech, mainly focused on the strategic character of cooperation between Belarus and Russia.
He suggested that both states should prioritise the preservation of their development pace during the current challenging period, which he characterised as the “hot phase” of the civilizational confrontation between the West and the East. Khrenin emphasised the importance of safeguarding sovereignty and independence at any expense. He highlighted that this objective could be attained by establishing fresh models for interstate relations, coordinating foreign policies, and enhancing defensive capabilities.
The Head of the Belarusian MoD discussed the accomplishments in bilateral military cooperation, which included the establishment of joint combat-training centres, joint training within the Union State grouping of forces, and the development of a unified Russo-Belarusian air defence system. Khrenin pointed out the deployment of non-strategic nuclear warheads to Belarus, highlighting the deepening military-technical cooperation between states.
He also mentioned that Belarusian servicemen could now operate modern Russian-made military equipment (Iskander and S-400) and have the opportunity to pursue studies at prominent Russian military universities and academies.
Additionally, Khrenin expressed his gratitude to his Russian counterpart, Sergey Shoigu, for Russia’s participation in the Belarusian investigation concerning WWII crimes, primarily through declassifying Russian archives. He mentioned that this collaborative effort had resulted in the discovery of numerous previously undisclosed mass graves of Red Army soldiers and a reevaluation of the extent of Belarusian casualties during World War II.
Lastly, representatives of Belarusian and Russian military leadership signed a new cooperation plan for 2024 and the plan for the joint work of the joint boards of both MoDs for the same year.
Also, on Thursday (19OCT), another Belarusian delegation attended a regular meeting of the Commonwealth of the Independent States (CIS) Coordinating Committee of the Chiefs of Communications. The event took place in Dushanbe and pertained to the implementation of the unified military communications system of the CIS members.
19-20OCT2023 – The informational activity in the Belarusian Armed Forces
Over the past seven days, servicemen of selected Belarusian military formations participated in official informational briefings usually led by medium (sometimes high) rank officials.
On Thursday (19OCT), such events engaged the Minsk military Commandant’s Office personnel and the 6th and 11th Mechanised Brigades, who listened about the “basic principles and priorities of Belarusian social security”. Notably, the First Deputy Commander of the Western Operational Command, Col. Alexander Lavrenov, personally led a briefing held in the 6th Mechanised Brigade.
A day later (20OCT), the Head of the Belarusian MoD arrived at the garrison of the 11th Mechanised Brigade (Slonim), where he spoke to the soldiers of the formation.
According to the official statement, the Belarusian Minister of Defence touched on two main subjects. Firstly, he spoke about the basic principles and priorities of social security, mostly focusing on the growing demographic imbalances and strengthening the trend of population ageing. Secondly, Khrenin referred to the current political-military situation in Eastern Europe and pointed out global challenges and new realities of world development.
20-21OCT2023 – Belarusian Armed Forces and annual holidays
Over the past seven days, elements of the Belarusian Armed Forces actively celebrated two important holidays in Belarus. This refers to the Day of Signal Troops (20OCT) and Belarusian Father’s Day (21OCT).
On Friday (20OCT), the commemoration of the first holiday occurred in several military formations, where official events occurred. Solemn gatherings occurred in the 11th Mechanised Brigade, 103rd Airborne Brigade and 74th Communications Regiment. The latter unit also prepared an open-door event.
Subsequently, the soldiers of the 38th Air Assault Brigade took part in a festive concert while the 377th Air Defence Regiment personnel prepared a “special” video. Traditionally, the Head of the Belarusian MoD, Lt. Gen. Viktor Khrenin, delivered his official (and quite standard) wishes, highlighting the contribution of the communications troops during WWII and praising their current training level.
A day later (21OCT), the commemoration of Belarusian Father’s Day was started by the official wishes of the Belarusian President. Shortly after, a military-sport competition for conscripts and their fathers took place in the 6th Mechanised Brigade.
Military exercises
16-20OCT2023 – The continuation of the combat readiness check of the Belarusian Armed Forces
On Monday (16OCT), the Belarusian MoD reported the continuation of the combat readiness check of the Belarusian Armed Forces.
According to the official statement, subunits of mechanised formations started their practical actions to assess their readiness to carry out intended tasks. As noted, they started marches to destinated areas to undergo a series of combat training drills.
Published materials confirmed that at least two T-72 tanks and two BMP-2 IFVs (on trailers) left
the garrison of the 120th Mechanised Brigade (355th Tank Battalion). Members of the Belarusian Hajun independently confirmed this data, noting that 18 trailers
(12 transporting tanks) and two MAZ trucks were heading from Minsk towards the M1 highway
(direction of the Minsk Airport).
Subsequently, the 52nd Tank Battalion (6th Mechanised Brigade) underwent a readiness review supervised by the formation commander, Lt. Col. Ruslan Glovatsky.
On Tuesday (17OCT), the Deputy Commander of the 120th Mechanised Brigade for Ideological Work,
Col. Denis Kudravchev confirmed the involvement of the 355th Tank Battalion in the combat readiness check of the Belarusian Armed Forces. He remarked that the subunit had been placed on high alert and had departed from its home garrison coordinatedly, with armoured elements being transported using trailers.
Also, the 1st Mechanised Battalion of the 19th Mechanised Brigade underwent a readiness review before participating in the readiness inspection. At an unknown railway station, at least five BMP-2s were loaded onto a military train.
A day later (18OCT), the elements of the 52nd Tank Battalion (6th Mechanised Brigade) arrived at the Gozhsky Training Ground, where they began the preparation of weapons, as well as military and special equipment for intended use, as a part of the ongoing combat readiness check.
After several hours (under the supervision of the abovementioned officials), they performed live ammo firing. The battalion commander called fire on Belarusian Mi-24 attack helicopters and Su-25 close air support aircraft.
At the same time, the Belarusian MoD also confirmed that at least two mechanised companies of the 19th Mechanised Brigade left its home garrisons as a part of the readiness inspection.
On Thursday (19OCT), tanks of the 355th Tank Battalion (120th Mechanised Brigade conducted live ammo at an unspecified location.
Subsequently, at least a single mechanised company of the 1st Mechanised Battalion (19th Mechanised Brigade) trained at the 230th Combined Arms Training Ground, where, with the use of grenade launchers, machine guns and sniper rifles, it “destroyed the mock enemy”.
Also on Thursday (19OCT), the 6th Mechanised Brigade soldiers underwent a 3-kilometre run – officially as part of the ongoing inspection.
A day later (20OCT), an echelon with equipment of the 52nd Tank Battalion arrived at the permanent deployment area, which might suggest its involvement had ended. This also might indicate the end of the whole inspection.
16-17OCT2023 – The training activity of the Belarusian Air Force and Air Defence formations
Last week, training measures also involved elements of the Belarusian Air Force and Air Defence Forces and air defence units subordinated to the operational commands.
On Monday (16OCT), the Belarusian MoD informed about the training flights of the Su-30SM and MiG-29 fighter crews of the 61st Fighter Aviation Base.
A day later (17OCT), soldiers of the 377th Air Defence Regiment took part in training classes related to combat medicine.
On Wednesday (18OCT), the 147th Air Defence Regiment finished its tactical exercise. It included combat launches at an unspecified location (possibly Domanovo Training Ground), supervised by the unit’s commander, Lt. Col. Igor Kruglik. It can’t be ruled out that the exercise started on 18SEP when elements of the unit left its home garrison.
17-18OCT2023 – The training activity of reserve and Territorial Defence Forces servicemen
Last week, two pieces of data related to the training of Belarusian reservists appeared.
On Tuesday (17OCT), 13 reserve servicemen from Mogilev and Mogilev Oblast were sent to planned reserve training camps. It is possible that the drill was correlated with the readiness inspection of the Belarusian Armed Forces.
Subsequently, Territorial Defence Forces (TDF) officers from Grodno and Brest Oblasts participated in the training classes related to using explosives prepared by soldiers of the Engineering-Sapper Battalion of the 6th Mechanised Brigade.
A day later (18OCT), an unspecified number of reserve servicemen arrived at the 5th Spetsnaz Brigade, officially, also to participate in reserve training camps.
17-21OCT2023 – The training activity of the Belarusian Special Operation Forces
Over the past seven days, elements of the Belarusian SOF also underwent a series of training drills.
On Tuesday (17OCT), an unspecified subunit of the 103rd Airborne Brigade departed to the Losvido Training Ground to participate in classes linked to fire, tactical, driving and medical training. The mentioned training most likely lasted until Saturday (21OCT).
Between Thursday (19OCT) and Friday (20OCT), the Brestsky Training Ground likely hosted a planned training of the 38th Air Assault Brigade artillery subunits.
16-22OCT2023 – Noteworthy movements of Belarusian military equipment
Over the past seven days, the following movements of the Belarusian military equipment were noteworthy:
Wednesday (18OCT):
Seven empty trailers were moving from Volozhin towards Minsk;
Four Ural trucks with an MAZ truck were moving in Minsk;
Thursday (19OCT):
Six Ural trucks were moving in Minsk;
Friday (20OCT):
Twenty BTRs with a single Kayman vehicle were heading to Minsk from Korolev Stan;
Russian military activity in Belarus
Last week, the Belarusian Hajun team provided updated data on the Russian Armed Forces’ presence in Belarus.
On Monday (16OCT), the abovementioned team noted that about 2,000 Russian soldiers remained in Belarus.
A day later (17OCT), the same source provided updated data on Russian military presence at the Velyky Bokov Airfield. The airfield hosts a single air defence battalion (S-400 equipped) and up to 300 Russian servicemen.
Regarding the general activity of the Russian forces, it is worth noticing that a single Russian Su-24MR conducted training flights on Tuesday (17OCT).
Notably, on Friday (20OCT), a single Russian An-72 cargo aircraft arrived at Baranovichi Air Base. However, it left after about an hour.
Wagner PMC activity in Belarus
Over the past seven days, unofficial sources reported minimal activity of the Wagner PMC forces in Belarus.
However, the already quoted Belarusian Hajun team provided additional data on the arrival of the chartered Il-76 at Bobruisk Airport reported on 12OCT. As noted, the aircraft likely arrived in Belarus to transport Wagner PMC mercenaries to Mali.
On Monday (16OCT), Hajun informed about the unchanged posture of the Wagner PMC in Belarus. According to this source, there are currently about 500-1,000 servicemen supported by 1,040 vehicles in the state.
On Friday (20OCT), a single MAZ truck, possibly with the Wagner PMC personnel, was moving in Baranovichi.