Belarus Security Update - 24 July - 30 July
An assessment of a political-military situation in Belarus
BLUF: Over the past seven days, the general posture of the Belarusian Armed Forces (BAF) remained unchanged. The tempo of Belarusian military exercises remained heightened. Additional Wagner forces arrived in Tsel while already deployed Wagner personnel continued training Belarusian military and Ministry of Internal Affairs formations.
Executive summary
Last week, the BAF displayed a very high exercise tempo, marking the beginning of battalion-level exercises. It is also important to note that Wagner personnel, which continued to arrive in Belarus, was present in many such drills. Indeed, the latest information suggests that their presence will grow to include exercises with internal units, such as OMON.
Political developments
Last week, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko spent several days in Russia. Lukashenko conducted a working visit between Saturday and Tuesday and met with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.
According to the president's Telegram channel, Lukashenko's visit was "super-saturated" and included several official and unofficial meetings. These included Vladimir Putin and the governors of Leningrad Oblast and Sankt Petersburg. He also visited Kronshtadt and Valaam islands.
Most of the talks occurred without media presence. Officially, Lukashenko and Putin discussed the "most serious issues". However, no detailed information was released as to the specifics of these talks.
Three days after his return, Lukashenko signed a decree on autumn conscription and made personal changes in the leadership of the Belarusian Armed Forces. The first document has an annual character and regulates details of the conscription campaign carried out in the AUG-NOV period. According to the law, 18-years old citizens or those who lost the right to conscription deferment will be called up to serve in the Belarusian Armed Forces.
Military developments
Personal changes
Last week, the Belarusian leadership made some noteworthy personnel changes. The Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Belarusian General Staff, Gen. Maj. Ruslan Kosygin and Head of the Military Inspection, Maj. Gen. Ivan Boguslavsk were sent to reserve due to their age. Kosygin and Boguslavsky have been given the right to wear military uniforms and insignia.
Subsequently, Lukashenko appointed the First Deputy Commander of the Western Operational Command (OC), Maj. Gen. Vladimir Kupriyanyuk to replace Kosygin. Interestingly, he is another combined arms officer (tanker) who will be heading the Belarusian Military Intelligence.
Kupriyanyuk was born in 1972 in Kamenyuki village (Brest Oblast). He graduated from the Tashkent Higher Tank Command School and, in 1992, started serving as a tank platoon commander in the 50th Mechanised Brigade before being promoted to a company commander and a tank battalion chief of staff within the same unit. In 2002, he left the unit for the Belarusian Military Academy (BMA), which he graduated in 2004. Subsequently, he was assigned as a tank battalion commander in the 6th Mechanised Brigade. A year later, Kupriyanyuk started service in the structures of the Western OC. However, between 2010-2014 he served as the First Deputy Commander of the 6th Mechanised Brigade and Head of the Military Faculty of the Grodno State University. Between 2015 and 2020, Kupriyanyuk returned to the Western Operational Command as First Deputy Chief of Staff. After graduating from the General Staff Faculty of the BMA, he became Chief of Staff (First Deputy Commander) of the Western OC.
Due to the abovementioned rotation, Col. Alexander Lavrenov became the Western OC's new Chief of Staff (First Deputy Commander).
Apart from this, Lukashenko appointed the current Head of the Minsk Suvorov School, Maj Gen. Andrey Gorbatenko, to the position of Military Inspection Head. From the moment, Col. Dmitry Kuchuk will lead the school.
Last week, there were also some changes in the mid-rank leadership of the Belarusian Armed Forces.
On Monday, the Commander of the 11th Mechanised Brigade, Lt. Col. Sergey Shilin, officially farewelled his deputy, Col. Vadim Ilnitsky, who was appointed to higher military positions by the Chief of Belarusian MoD. During the same ceremony, Shilin officially promoted presumably four soldiers of the 11th Mechanised Brigade to higher military ranks. Five days later, Col. Andrey Fedorov, the brigade's Chief of Artillery, was transferred to the military reserve.
On the other hand, certain military formations also inducted this-year graduates of the military academies. It refers to the 103rd Airborne Brigade (~10 officers) and 120th Mechanised Brigade (~15 officers) hosting official welcome ceremonies on Wednesday and Friday.
International activties
Over the past seven days, Belarusian military representatives participated in several noteworthy international events. Most of them occurred in the latter part of the week.
27.07. On Thursday, the Head of Belarusian Transport Troops, Maj. Gen. Yuri Shaplavsky participated in the Joint Russo-Belarusian Council of the Transport and Railway Troops meeting at the 65th Automobile Brigade. Head of the Main Railway Troops Directorate, Lt. Gen. Oleg Kosenkov, represented the Russian side. During the meeting, parties summarised cooperation in 2023 and discussed further joint activities.
At the same time, the Head of the International Military Cooperation Department, Col. Valery Revenko, met with Kazakhstan Defence Attaché, Col. Serik Dzhakupov, due to the completion of his diplomatic mission in Belarus. Officially, the Belarusian side summed up the achievements of the diplomat and presented him with an official photo of the Belarusian President.
27.07. On Thursday, officials also led two Belarusian delegations. The Deputy Head of the International Military Cooperation Department, Col. Dmitry Ryabikhin, participated in the meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SOC) members. The gathering occurred in Tashkent (Uzbekistan), where an expert group under MoD chiefs discussed regional and international security issues and the current military security situation.
Subsequently, the Chief of Communications (Deputy Chief of General Staff), Col. Vadim Romaniv, headed another delegation in a working Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) meeting dedicated to a joint draft document of a new CSTO Collective Forces communication system.
Belarusian Armed Forces tested mentioned such a system during a recent operational-special exercise of communications troops and internally approved the draft. In NOV23, the document will be considered by higher organs of the CSTO (Council of Defence Ministers and Committee of Security Council Secretaries).
28.07. On Friday, the Belarusian Minister of Defence, Lt. Gen. Viktor Khrenin, took part in the official ceremony dedicated to the 96th Anniversary of establishing the Chinese People's Liberation Army. During the event, Khrenin spoke about the current role of China and its armed forces. According to him, the Chinese army, which was undergoing large-scale reforms (including introducing new military equipment and comprehensive training based on the experiences of modern conflicts), was the reliable guarantor of peace and prosperity. The Chief of MoD also pointed out the importance of bilateral military relations between Belarus and China, claiming that cooperation with China is the most important priority of Belarusian foreign policy.
Iskander base
On Friday, the Foundation of American Scientists (FAS) published a short analysis informing about the end of new building construction in the garrison of the 465th Missile Brigade. According to the text, works took place between OCT22 and APR23 and resulted in the construction of a new garage dedicated to the Iskander battalion.
The creation of a dedicated garage for the Iskander unit is a logical step towards creating a fully functional support and maintenance capability for short-range missile systems. This was especially pertinent given that, so far, Belarusian Iskanders have been stored in makeshift yards.
Wagner forces in Belarus
Last week, additional Wagner forces arrived in Belarus. This time, these units brought "heavier" military equipment, such as Chekan anti-mine-protected vehicle built on a Ural-432007-0111-31 chassis. The vehicle is characteristic of Wagner forces.
Vehicles crossed the Russo-Belarusian border near Zvenchatka and moved towards Tsel village. It is unclear if they moved through Krichev, Cherikav, Chausy and Mogilev or, as usual, through Krichev, Cherikav, and Dovsk.
Last week, at least three Wagner PMC columns reached Tsel. Vehicles crossed the Russo-Belarusian border near Zvenchatka and moved towards the village. They either moved through Krichev, Cherikav, Chausy and Mogilev or, as usual, through Krichev, Cherikav, and Dovsk.
25JUL (Tuesday)
o Approximately 30 vehicles (including about 20 trucks, light vehicles, tractors and construction/engineering vehicles, as well as six Chekan armoured cars);
27JUL (Thursday)
o Approximately 54 vehicles (five Chekan armoured cars, dozens of trucks, pick-ups and light vehicles or buses);
28JUL (Friday)
o More than 80 vehicles (Chekan armoured cars, buses, trucks and fuel trucks, as well as light vehicles and trawls);
27JUL On Thursday, another Wagner column (including several trucks and buses) was moving between Baranovichi and Derevnaya. "Wagnerities" most likely headed towards the 230th Combined Arms Training Ground to train Belarusian soldiers.
Before that, on Tuesday, the Belarusian MoD confirmed the continuation of the joint exercises. According to the official statement, "Wagnerities" were responsible not only for training the Belarusian Special Operations Force (SOF) and mechanised formations but also for service members of specialised units and subunits – military engineers, NBC protection specialists and even communication 9signal) troops.
Wagner personnel also met with the Belarusian Minister of Internal Affairs, Maj. Gen. Nikolay Karpenkov and commanders of internal units - OMON, SOBR, ALMAZ. This might suggest that Wagner will also conduct joint training with servicemen of the internal formations.
A day later, one of Wagner's servicemen appeared in one of the Belarusian TV shows, where he praised the preparedness of Belarusian soldiers. Nevertheless, he also pointed out that Belarusian service members still need a bit of additional training when it comes to urban warfare.
Representatives of the Belarusian BELPOL (former BYPOL – Union of Belarusian Security Officers: An opposition organisation which gathers former and incumbent security officers "looking to restore the rule of law and order in Belarus") claimed that Belarusian internal bodies face specific problems with Wagner units. According to BELPOL, "Wagnerities" often move drunk with (non-registered) automatic weapons and search for alcohol near Osipovichi. Such behaviour often causes encounters with local police, which are helpless. It seems that the likelihood of a significant incident with Wagner personnel is becoming increasingly high.
According to Radio Svoboda news outlet (25JUL), Wagner's base in Tsel housed 754 vehicles, including 62 semi-trucks, 534 cars (cars, pick-ups, minibuses), 33 buses, 99 trucks and 26 Ural/Kamaz trucks or armoured vehicles. The abovementioned suggest that about 269 vehicles have arrived at the base since 19JUL.
29JUL On Saturday, the Polish Prime Minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, stated that 100 Wagner personnel were redeployed to the Grodno area, near the so-called "Suwalki Gap". Morawiecki informed that mercenaries might be disguised as Belarusian Border Guards to help illegal migrants get into Poland.
Current data linked to the training activity of the Belarusian Armed Forces seem to confirm this information. Between 26JUL and 27JUL, members of the organisation took part in the Belarusian drills held at the Gozhsky Training Ground, located about 15 kilometres from the city (and 5 kilometres from Lithuanian and 25 kilometres from the Polish borders).
Military exercises
Last week, some Belarusian military formations entered a training phase, which will seek to exercise battalion-level formations. Nevertheless, many units continued combat coordination of platoons and companies.
Between Wednesday and Thursday, the Western Operational Command battalion-level commanders (and their deputies) started an annual tactical gathering. The event occurred at the Gozhsky Training Ground, where officers prepared to coordinate the actions of their subunits with artillery, aviation and UAVs. Under the direct supervision of the Western OC Commander, Col. Vladimir Bely and Chief of Belarusian General Staff, Maj. Gen. Viktor Gulevich, participants trained to create and pass various minefields. Published materials showed that officers were actively trained in tactical medicine and combat casualty care. Wagner units were also involved in these drills.
Analogical training gatherings occurred on Monday and Wednesday but involved elements of the Northwestern Operational Command. On Monday, personnel of reconnaissance subunits started training at an unspecified location. The gathering involved the 19th Mechanised Brigade soldiers and was meant to prepare Belarusian service members for the upcoming "Search-2023" CSTO exercise (intelligence and reconnaissance drill).
Two days later, servicemen of the anti-air battalions of the same command presumably also attended a similar event. Its location is currently unclear. However, an anti-air battalion of the 120th Mechanised Brigade performed a 60-kilometre rail march (followed by a short ground march) to reach the training area. This description might suggest that the event occurred at the 227th Combined Arms Training Ground near Barysaw.
27JUL On Thursday, several formations started artillery fire control exercises. Practical actions involved the 350th Artillery Group of the 6th Mechanised Brigade (likely Gozhsky Training Ground) and commanders of airborne battalions and companies of the 103rd Airborne Brigade (Losvido Training Ground). A day later, the 51st Artillery Brigade started an analogical exercise involving Wagner forces at the Osipovichi Training Ground. Wagner elements were involved in strike coordination activities, although it cannot be excluded that they also conducted fires using Belarusian equipment. The brigade conducted fire missions using 2S5 Giatsint-S 152 mm self-propelled guns, 2A65 Msta-B towed 152 mm howitzers, and BM-27 Uragan MLR systems supported by UAVs.
The 103rd Airborne Brigade hosted its bilateral (company-level) tactical exercise between Wednesday and Friday. During its course, soldiers of (at least) two airborne companies competed at the Losvido Training Ground in fighting in forested areas. They also actively used grenade launchers, artillery, UAVs and anti-air assets.
Almost subsequently (Tuesday-Friday), Mi-8 and Mi-24 crews of the 50th Mixed Aviation Base conducted classes linked to the fire support at the Ruzhany Training Ground. Pilots struck targets with machine guns and rockets.
27JUL On Thursday and Friday, mechanised squads of the 105th Mechanised Battalion (11th Mechanised Brigade took part in the live ammo shooting classes. During the drills, service members left the concentration area and departed towards their destination area. Soldiers also overcame contaminated areas and minefields and repelled the attacks of reconnaissance and sabotage groups of a mock enemy.
During the week, several firing classes also occurred. On Tuesday and Saturday, they involved personnel of artillery subunits of the 103rd Airborne Brigade (Losvido Training Ground). On Friday, service members of the 36th Road and Bridge Brigade (227th Combined Arms Training Ground) underwent analogical training.
27JUL On Thursday, unspecified tank subunit(s) of the 19th Mechanised Brigade took part in tank driving classes. A day later, the Belarusian Military Political Review informed about another exercise of the Belarusian Military Academy cadets'. This refers to students of Combined Arms and Military Reconnaissance Faculties related to overcoming water barriers using T-72 main battle tanks, BTR-80 armoured personnel carries and BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles. Notably, the drills also involved Wagner elements, who "shared their combat experience" with Belarusian military students.
Regarding the reserve training, two training events are important to note. Last week, elements of the 11th Mechanised Brigade (841st Artillery Group, logistic battalion, and anti-air battalion) inducted at least 70 service members as a part of the annual reserve training camps (about 9,000 reservists are to be called up in 2023 for such camps). During such events, reserve personnel, among others, perform weapons and equipment maintenance before returning to long-term storage.
27JUL On Thursday, the 127th Communications Brigade hosted an official ceremony dedicated to the conclusion of reserve personnel training classes. After 23 days of training (started on 4JUL), up to ~20 service members finished their (re)training in military specialities of senior engineers and deputy commanders of stationary communication nodes. An unspecified number of reservists received officer ranks.
Last week, several noteworthy movements of Belarusian military equipment occurred:
25JUL (Tuesday)
o Five UAZ-3302, two BRDM-2 and two MAZ trucks were moving between Gomel and Rechitsa;
o Four BTR-80 with VOLAT vehicles were heading to Minsk from Chatezhino;
27JUL (Thursday)
o A single trailer with a BUK anti-air system was moving in Baranovichi;
o At least three Kamaz-4310 vehicles towed the same number of Msta-B on the M5 highway near Tsel village;
o A R-414MBRP Sosna-2 radio relay station (R-414MBRP-A communication vehicle + R-414MBRP-O supporting vehicle) were moving in Minsk;
28JUL (Friday)
o Two trailers with two S-300 launchers moving between Ivye and Volozhin;
Moreover, a single military echelon with a single tank and an unspecified number of trucks appeared on Wednesday in Orsha.
Russian military activity in Belarus
Last week, the Russian Armed Forces deployed in Belarus presented relatively meagre activity.
At least three Russian cargo aircraft arrived in Belarus. This refers to unspecified An-26 (Wednesday), An-148 (RA-61733 - Thursday) and An-26 (RF-90451 – Friday).
On Monday, a Russian Mi-8 helicopter conducted a flight from Machulischy Air Base. According to unofficial sources, an unspecified fighter aircraft (MiG-31) could have arrived at the same base a day later.
The Belarusian Флагшток news outlet informed that Russian soldiers in the area of Zyabrovka Air Base started to wear their insignias and identification marks. According to Флагшток sources, most of them are artillerymen, presumably from Buryatia.
On Thursday, a Russian column with 15-20 vehicles (mainly trucks and fuel trucks) was moving on the R62 road between Berezino and Bobruisk. Moreover, a single Kamaz truck appeared in Mazyr.
Rochan’s assessment
The discussed training activities are likely a part of the Belarusian Armed Forces exercise program, aimed at coordinating subordinate units at the battalion [unit] level during the current training phase.
The number of training units from the Western and Northwestern Operational Commands (including communications) suggests that Belarusian training activity was focused on preparing designated forces for participation in the Zapad-2023 exercise (or another exercise), which was announced at the beginning of this year by the Russian and Belarusian Ministry of Defence.
It is possible that in mid or late August, Belarusian units assigned to the Regional Military Grouping will move to training grounds. A similar situation applies to Russian units. In this case, newly formed or mobilised units could be redeployed to Belarus.
Both countries were said to organise the Zapad-2023 exercise in September.
The presence of some Wagner PMC personnel in Belarus and its operations therein are a part of the wider plan to influence the European security environment.
Although the likelihood is presently small, we cannot rule out a possibility that Wagner-affiliated formations will carry out sabotage acts in Poland or Lithuania;
Possible scenarios for the use of Wagner PMC
AIM - destabilisation of the European security environment
COA I - MOST DANGEROUS (MDCOA) Engagement of Wagner PMC in operations on the Polish-Belarusian border, with elements penetrating the main logistic routes towards Ukraine with the task of hindering arms supplies to Ukraine;
COA II - MOST LIKELY (MLCOA) Wagner PMC will be used to intensify the number of crossings on the Polish-Belarusian border, with the task of destabilising the political and social security environment of Poland and the EU. Provoke a border incident to further escalate tensions.
COA III - AFRICA (ACOA) After establishing contacts and signing contracts with selected African governments, PMC Wagner will gradually redirect its forces to Africa. Belarus will serve as a training and logistics centre for new forces.
COA IV – BELARUS vs UKRAINE PMC Wagner will stabilise the internal situation in Belarus and serve as a counterweight to Belarusians serving within the Ukrainian Armed Forces. They will gather sufficient potential to carry out sabotage actions in Western Ukraine. These actions will be conducted from the Belarusian territory.
Conclusions:
• PMC Wagner remains a crucial element in Russian and Belarusian plans.
• Much depends on the reaction of the Polish government, society, and the EU to possible PMC Wagner actions on the Polish-Belarusian border.
• Before undertaking more kinetic activities, Russia and Belarus will likely use Wagner in support of their information warfare agenda.