Belarus Security Update - 26 June - 2 July
BLUF: The posture of the Belarusian Armed Forces remained unchanged last week. Press reports were again focused on the deployment of nuclear weapons and Wagner PMC fighters to Belarus, although we cannot independently confirm that either process has started. Belarusian authorities officially ratified amendments to the Russo-Belarusian agreement on the joint provision of security in the military sphere.
Executive summary
The Belarusian Armed Forces increased the training tempo over the past seven days. It partially corresponded with the start (and, in some cases, continuation) of conscripts specialist training. The MoD also claimed that an S-400 battalion went on combat duty to serve as a part of the unified regional air defence system of Belarus and Russia.
Political developments
Last week, the country's political representatives made statements on the deployment of nuclear weapons and Wagner personnel to Belarus. The Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko was unsurprisingly the most vocal in such pronouncements.
On Friday, he made a speech during an event linked to the upcoming (3JUN) Belarusian Independence Day. Lukashenko initially spoke about the origins of the holiday, mentioning the liberation of Minsk from Nazis in 1944 and the huge efforts made by ordinary citizens, which led to independent Belarus. However, in the latter part of the speech, he stressed that Belarusian citizens must also fulfil their contemporary missions. They must "fight for this world", mainly on the information, economic and political fronts. Referring to the current political-military situation, the Belarusian leader pointed out that the world remained in an unprecedented global-scale crisis. Nevertheless, he added that Belarus would propose a plan "of good neighbourliness and peace" to its neighbours.
Regarding potential escalation against Belarus, Lukashenko claimed that Belarus would respond adequately if the security of Belarusians was threatened. According to him, he recently approved a decision to place (western) decision-making centres "on military maps" as targets for the Belarusian Armed Forces. Lukashenko was increasingly convinced that a decision to deploy nuclear weapons was correct. He, nevertheless, added that he believed it would not be necessary to employ them.
Speaking of nuclear weapons, the Belarusian Union of Railway Workers provided data on where such warheads would be stored on Tuesday. According to their data, warheads will arrive in Belarus in several stages. In JUN, they will arrive at Prudok Railway Station from Polanino Railway Station (four special wagons and an escort wagon), Lozhok Railway Station (two special wagons and an escort wagon), and Cheboksary Railway Station (ten special wagons with an escort wagon). Warheads will be stored at the 2631st Air Base for Missile Weapons and Ammunition.
During the second stage (NOV), three analogical transfers will occur. In the OCT-NOV period, auxiliary and protection equipment will also be delivered to the following stations:
· Four wagons with an escort wagon will depart from Pravdinsk Railway Station to Luniniets Railway Station;
· Ten wagons with an escort wagon will depart from Vozhoy Railway Station to Baranovichi-Tsentralnye Railway Station;
· A single wagon with an escort wagon will depart from Penza Railway Station to Baranovichi-Tsentralnye Railway Station;
We are looking to obtain satellite imagery of the 2631st Air Base for Missile Weapons and Ammunition. Once we get a decent pass (the weather over Belarus wasn't helpful recently), we will publish an imagery assessment of the site. Secondly, given the final destination of nuclear warheads, it appears that Russians will indeed deploy air-droppable bombs to Belarus. Indeed, the 2631st Base is tasked with the storage, maintenance, and disposal of all kinds of missile weapons and ammunition that could be used by Belarusian aviation. Secondly, all bases where auxiliary and protection equipment is to be delivered (Baranovichi and Luninets) feature an air base.
However, some data is unclear to us at the current stage. Firstly, no nuclear storage facilities are close to the Polanino Railway Station. The closest is the Trekhgorny-1 (a national-level) storage facility, some 200 km west of Polanino.
Around 82 km north of Lozok is the Novosibirsk base-level storage facility, but we understand it provides warheads to the Russian Strategic Rocket Forces (RSVN). The same goes for Cheboksary, where the Yushkar-Ola RSVN storage facility is 60 km northeast of the train station.
It is unclear why RVSN is, according to this data, providing nuclear tactical nuclear warheads to be used for Belarusian aircraft. Especially since two bases (Novosibirsk and Yushkar-Ola) also house active RVSN units, elements of the 39th and 14th Rocket Divisions, respectively.
Moving on, also on Tuesday, Lukashenko promoted selected service members to the general rank. During the ceremony attended by most Belarusian security officials, Lukashenko said that "general's epaulettes" make personnel responsible for the country's fate. According to him, Belarus is not facing colour revolutions or military aggression because the Belarusian leader has personally prepared the state for war for the last 30 years.
After the promotion event, Alexander Lukashenko met with Belarusian Minister of Defence, Lt. Gen. Viktor Khrenin, to speak about the recent developments in Russia. The Belarusian President praised both the effectiveness of the Belarusian Armed Force's actions, as well as the right attitude of the Belarusian service members. He noted that also families of various servicemen acted like a "monolith" and remained united. Lukashenko said that when Wagner was moving towards Moscow, he placed the armed forces on the highest readiness status.
Speaking on Wagner, Belarusian President stressed the necessity of using the WAGNER PMC fighters' "priceless" experience, which may indicate some efforts to use them as trainers for Belarusian (and maybe even Russian) units. Last week, satellite imagery was published online showing a camp appearing in Tsel. The camp measures 24,000 sq meters and could house several thousand men. The Belarusian Hajun counted 298 M-30 tents, which can accommodate 8,940 servicemen in total (30 men per tent).
On Thursday, the New York Times published satellite imagery of the Tsel village near Osipovichi, which suggested the construction, likely started on 25JUN or 26JUN. The BBC released updated images the next day confirming the mentioned camp's existence. The Belarusian Hajun counted 298 M-30 tents, which can accommodate 8940 servicemen in total (30 servicemen each).
The Commander of the Ukrainian Joint Forces, Lt. Gen. Sergey Naev, claimed on Friday that there was no proof confirming Wagner's presence in Belarus.
Returning to Lukashenko, the Belarusian Hajun project provided data about a possible meeting of the Belarusian President and Head of the WAGNER PMC. According to Hajun, Lukashenko spent five hours in his residence near Minsk on Tuesday evening, when Prigozhin's planes likely takeoff from Machulischy.
Belarusian authorities also ratified legal acts regulating military cooperation with Russia. On Wednesday, Lt. Gen. Viktor Khrenin participated in the ninth Belarusian House of Representatives session, which officially adopted the draft law related to the Russo-Belarusian agreement on establishing and functioning joint combat training centres. Khrenin presented the draft and stated that mentioned bodies would be responsible for joint combat training and experience exchange linked to using weapons and military and special equipment.
A day later, Alexander Lukashenko signed a law ratifying the amendments to the Russo-Belarusian Agreement on Joint Provision of the Security in the Military Sphere from 19DEC97 (Heads of the Russian and Belarusian MoDs signed amendments on 3DEC in 2022). Over the past two months, both the lower and upper houses of the Belarusian Parliament approved the bill to improve regulations on joint military cooperation and clarify planning and financing joint activities of the regional grouping of forces.
Military developments
Last week, the current Commander of the Belarusian Air Force and Air Defence Forces, Col. Andrey Lukyanovich, and First Deputy Chief of Logistics, Col. Alexander Mosolov, received ranks of Major General from the Belarusian President. The Chairman of the Border Guard Committee, Col. Konstantin Molotov, received an analogical promotion.
On Monday, the Belarusian Minister of Defence presented state awards to selected Belarusian Armed Forces service members. More than 180 soldiers received the "For Impeccable Service" medal.
On Wednesday and Saturday, the Military Faculty of the Belarusian National Technical University and the Belarusian State Aviation Academy hosted graduation ceremonies, which delivered up to 100 lieutenants to the Belarusian Armed Forces.
On Friday, Maj. Gen. Andrey Lukyanovich informed that an S-400 air defence battalion had started combat duty. Lukyanovich noted that such a measure (the deployment of S-400s to Belarus) was necessary due to the challenging military-political situation around the state. According to him, Belarusian personnel mastered using the S-400 air defence complex at the Russian Kapustin Yar Training Ground and were ready to perform any tasks. The Belarusian Hajun project confirmed that the 6th Air Defence Battalion of the 15th Air Defence Brigade, located near Dubrova operates the system.
Last week, Belarusian military officials took part in several international events.
On Monday, the Secretary of the State Security Council, Lt. Gen. Alexander Volfovich, met with the Chinese Ambassador to Belarus, Xie Xiaoyun. Officials discussed "topical issues" linked to international security and confirmed the course of the strategic partnership between Belarus and China. A day later, the Head of the International Military Cooperation Department, Col. Valery Revenko, gave an interview for the "Nova Resistencia NR Brasil" Brasilian media portal related to the peaceful Belarusian initiatives during the Russo-Ukrainian conflict.
Nevertheless, the most important "international" event took place on Friday, when the representatives of the Cuban Armed Forces led by the Cuban Minister of Defence, General of the Army Corps, Alvaro Lopez Miera, arrived in Belarus. Most of the Belarusian high-rank military representatives took part in the bilateral negotiations aimed at exchanging views of the security situation in the world and the military-political situation in Europe. Officially, both sides expressed mutual interest in intensifying contacts in the military sphere. During their visit, Cuban officials also had an opportunity to visit Belarusian WWII Museum and Khatyn Memorial Complex.
Drills
Last week, two training events can be considered noteworthy. This refers to the special tactical lesson "Help-2023" of the Western Operational Command and 1134th Military Clinical Medical Center (held at Gozhsky Training Ground), as well as another Territorial Defence Forces (TDF) inspection held in the Salihorsk region.
The first event started on Monday. It trained medical evacuation during defensive operations and involved the 1134th Military Clinical Medical Center and elements of the 6th Mechanised Brigade.
However, the practical stage likely commenced on Wednesday, when the centre's personnel deployed a medical detachment (from the battalion-level medical point) responsible for reception, registration and sorting of wounded servicemen at the Gohzsky Training Ground. Interestingly, cadets and students of the Military Medical Institute and the Belarusian Military Academy UAV specialists also attended the drills.
The drill started on Thursday and will last until 21JUL. During its course, reserve personnel from the region will be called up to form a rifle battalion. After individual and subunit training classes, the subunit will conduct command-staff exercises with representatives of the local authorities and People's Militia.
A similar event carried out in the Luniniets region ended on Wednesday. Officially, reservists protected critical infrastructure facilities and countered reconnaissance and sabotage groups of the mock enemy. They also actively cooperated with servicemen of the Belarusian Internal Troops. Also, on Wednesday, the training camp for reservists of the 72nd Joint Training Center ended. Personnel underwent a command-staff exercise, including an anti-air drill at the 227th Combined Arms Training Ground, observed by the Head of the Main Combat Training Directorate, Maj. Gen. Alexander Bas.
Over the past seven days, Belarusian servicemembers also underwent speciality-related training classes. Most of them pertained to BMP and T-72 tank crews and occurred in all mechanised brigades.
On Monday, presumably all BMP crews of the 11th Mechanised Brigade practised overcoming water obstacles. A day later, such classes occurred in the 6th and 19th Mechanised Brigades, but they involved crews of the T-72 tanks. On Wednesday, mechanised subunits of the 6th Mechanised Brigade and T-72 crews of the 355th Tank Battalion (120th Mechanised Brigade) practised the same skill. Finally, on Thursday, crews of the 2S1 SPHs from the 841st Artillery Group (11th Mechanised Brigade) also overcame water obstacles.
Drivers of the 11th Mechanised Brigade and "Krasny Dvor" military camp (Brest garrison) underwent 50-kilometre training marches on Tuesday.
The Belarusian air component presented significant training activities on Tuesday and Thursday. It included training flights of several Mi-8 helicopters, An-26 and Tu-134 aircraft from Machulischy Air Base, and unidentified aircraft of the 116th Assault Aviation Base (Lida). On Thursday, Observed training flights involved at least two Mi-8 and three Mi-24 helicopters with Tu-134 aircraft operating from Machulischy Air Base and unspecified aircraft from Lida Air Base.
The following noteworthy ground movements of the Belarusian military equipment were observed throughout the week:
Tuesday
More than 20 vehicles of the 74th Communications Regiment were moving south from Grodno;
About ten Kraz-255 vehicles with PMP-M pontoon bridge elements of the 557th Engineering Brigade were moving in Grodno;
Several communications vehicles, including R-432 Horizont tropospheric station with an R-434MT antenna post and five trucks, were moving in Baranovichi;
Wednesday
A BTR company with six unspecified vehicles was moving towards Kobryn from Drohichyn;
Seven Ural trucks with two MAZ trucks and four UAZs were moving in Minsk;
Friday
Four S-300 launchers with UAZ headed to Suschin from Rakov (through Pershay, Volozhin and Lida).
Moreover, the transfer of military equipment on three trains was reported.
On Tuesday, an echelon with equipment of the 147th Air Defence Regiment (four OSA launchers with two transport-loader vehicles and a single BTR-70-based command-staff vehicle) was spotted in Bobruisk and moving towards Baranovichi. On Wednesday, an echelon with at least a single tank was moving through Gomel-Severnyy Railway Station, while the second one carried three BTR-80 and two GAZ-66 (120th Mechanised Brigade?) at the Ozerische Railway Station.
Russian military activity in Belarus
Last week, at least four Russian cargo aircraft arrived in Belarus:
Two Il-76 (RF-78659 and ??-????) landed at Machulischy Air Base on Monday;
An An-26 (RF-36009) landed at Machulischy Air Base on Thursday;
An An-72 landed at Machulischy Air Base on Saturday;
Before its departure on Thursday (Lida Air Base), Russian Il-22VPU (air command post) aircraft participated in a tactical flight exercise with airframes from the 116th Assault Aviation Base (21JUN-23JUN). It conducted two flights in the Belarusian airspace on Monday and Tuesday. Interestingly the latter lasted almost for five hours.
Russian Su-30SM fighters and Su-34 bombers conducted training flights from Machulischy Air Base on Friday. Russian Mi-8 helicopters conducted at least a single training flight on Monday, Tuesday and Saturday.