Belarus Security Update - 3 July - 9 July
BLUF: No changes in the posture of the Belarusian Armed Forces were recorded. Belarusian military-political officials provided new information related to the deployment of nuclear weapons and Wagner PMC mercenaries in Belarus, which again dominated the national infosphere. Russian forces conducted a personnel rotation and withdrew the equivalent of at least a single battalion tactical group (BTG) from Belarus.
Executive summary
Over the past seven days, the Belarusian Armed Forces training tempo remained heightened.
Training actions involved subunits of the Belarusian Army, as well as Air Force and Air Defence Forces. Despite the limited activity of the Belarusian military representatives, officials provided some hawkish statements to domestic and foreign media outlets about relations with the West and the war in Ukraine. The MoD also provided detailed information on the spring conscription, which appears to confirm personnel issues and thus could negatively impact the creation of the Southern Operational Command.
Political developments
Last week, Belarus celebrated National Independence Day, which engaged most of the Belarusian citizens, as well as military-political representatives. On Monday, the latter participated either in the main ceremony held near the Mound of Glory or in smaller events held in major Belarusian cities (Minsk, Grodno, Luniniets, Slonim, Vitebsk).
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko also participated in two noteworthy events later in the week. On Wednesday, he congratulated graduates of the General Staff Faculty of the Belarusian Military Academy, and a day later, he took part in a wide-ranging press conference with foreign journalists.
During the first ceremony held in the Palace of Independence, Lukashenko initially spoke about the liberators of Minsk, who defeated Nazi invaders. According to him, they should be role models for contemporary officers, especially now in the difficult military-political situation in the region. The Belarusian leader claimed that Belarus experiences both economic dictate and political and informational "pressure", but also external provocations combined with internal terrorist activities. Lukashenko pointed out that Belarus always adequately responded to such "attacks, “ allowing Minsk to improve its national security system.
The Belarusian Leader made more noteworthy statements during the second event held on Thursday. He said that the meeting with foreign journalists was "a conversation, not a conference", and he wanted to answer questions about the world's future. Lukashenko noted the destruction of the world order and stressed that the unipolar world system was disappearing. According to him, this can't be stopped, and the future development of the planet would be mainly linked to the development of Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.
Referring to the issue of the Wagner PMC deployment to Belarus, the president noted that the company was Russian, and he was not the right person to ask (about the progress of the process).
He stated that the mercenaries remained in their camps in Russia while Yevgeny Prigozhin (the company’s head) was in Sankt Petersburg. Answering another question, the Belarusian leader stressed that Belarus was not building any camps for the WAGNER fighters. According to him, Belarus offered a few camps to the organisation, but its representatives had a different vision of their deployment to Belarus.
Nonetheless, Lukashenko assured that both sides obeyed the agreements made a couple of weeks ago. When they arrive in Belarus, Lukashenko said, Belarus would be able to use their knowledge (presumably to improve the capabilities of their armed forces). Lukashenko also denied that Wagner mercenaries might attack Ukraine from Belarusian territory. He stressed that the "situation with Wagner" strengthened relations between Russia and Belarus.
Regarding the military-political situation, the Belarusian President blamed the West for "considering itself the arbiter of everything". As noted, the United States' decisions since the war in Ukraine started were comedic and might even cause the death of thousands and millions of people.
Lukashenko also spoke about Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, "who recently realised that Ukraine can't win a war with Russia" and who was "trying to demonstrate something" before the NATO Summit in Lithuania. According to Lukashenko, if the Ukrainian political-military leadership continued to "throw" the best Ukrainian units on the Russian positions, it would “bury” the combat capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Referring to the Russo-Ukrainian war, the Belarusian President pointed out that the current moment was convenient for possible peace talks. He brought France as an example of the Western state, which also sought peace. Lukashenko claimed that potential sabotage at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant would not stop the war, but the Ukrainian counteroffensive might change the Russian attitude toward the potential negotiations.
After that, the Belarusian leader moved directly to the issue of nuclear weapons deployment in Belarus. According to him, the Western states should not worry about its potential use because Belarus would not attack anyone and would utilise such weapon only in case of aggression against itself. As noted, the Russian Special Military Operation would not become a nuclear war if NATO forces do not directly attack Russia (or Belarus).
Besides, Lukashenko assured that all warheads transferred to Belarus would be under strict control ensured by Belarus and Russia. He noted that Belarus prepared its storage facilities about a month ago and had already received a certain number of warheads. The transfer, he said, was not noticed by Western special services because warheads did not arrive by train.
The delivery of the remaining warheads is expected to be completed by the end of 2023. Regarding the issue of control over nuclear weapons, Lukashenko claimed that both Belarus and Russia could decide its use. However, he also noted that Belarus could refuse Russian order "if Belarusian President or Belarusian people will not want it."
Comment: The abovementioned statement of the Belarusian President shows that Lukashenko seems to be "distancing himself" from the Wagner issue. He also eased his rhetoric linked to the use of nuclear weapons. In his speeches, the Belarusian leader often suggested that Belarusian Armed Forces would independently control the use of Russian warheads deployed in Belarus. However, after a series of Russian negations, he recently noted that control would be "mutual". Lukashenko's words about the possibility of refusal (of nuclear weapons use) also seem odd and rather addressed to domestic and foreign audiences.
The Foundation of American Scientists published an analysis suggesting that the recent construction of additional security means in the 1405th Artillery Ammunition Base (near Osipovichi) might indicate the upcoming deployment of nuclear weapons. The proximity to the 465th Missile Brigade (the unit fields the Iskander missile systems that can carry nuclear warheads) also supports this thesis.
Military developments
Last week, certain military representatives also repeated Lukashenko’s rhetoric related to the current military-political situation.
On Monday, the Commander of the Belarusian Air Force and Air Defence Forces, Maj. Gen. Andrey Lukyanovich claimed that the so-called collective West (led by the United States) unleashed aggression against Russia (and Belarus as its main ally) in the informational, economic and military spheres. He warned that more severe and dangerous Western provocations would cause more noticeable answers. In general, Lukyanovich claimed that Belarusian Armed Forces observe up to 30 combat flights (including 6-8 reconnaissance flights) of NATO aviation daily, which were meant mainly to reconnoitre elements of the Belarusian Armed Forces and to get used to being close to the Belarusian airspace.
The Deputy Commander of the 15th Air Defence Brigade, Lt. Col. Andrey Bobylyov, appeared in Belarusian STV channel material related to the S-400 air defence system. Bobylyov confirmed that the S-400 battalion entered the service of the 15th Air Defence Brigade (most likely the 6th Air Defence Battalion) and informed that the subunit might field up to 12 various launchers able to neutralise targets at ranges from three to 400 kilometres. According to him, Belarus can monitor airspace ("to the Baltic Sea, through Warsaw and Kyiv") and protect the whole state border with currently deployed capabilities.
On Wednesday, the Deputy Head of the General Staff Faculty of the Belarusian Military Academy, Col. Andrey Bogodel, gave an extensive interview for the Belarusian SB TV channel.
Initially, Bogodel also spoke about the recent NATO training activity. According to him, the current difficult military-political situation in the region was also a result of the heightened training tempo of the NATO forces. He noted that it suggests that NATO could seriously consider the possibility of an armed conflict with the states of "Eastern vector" (Russia and Belarus). Later, Bogodel also spoke about Belarusian deterrence. He brought the deployment of reinforced battalions to the border areas and the Belarusian Armed Forces' constant training actions as examples of ongoing deterrence activities. He added that the Union State should not let the West intimidate Minsk and Moscow.
Notably, he also referred to the causes of the Russo-Ukrainian war, which started due to the Western unwillingness to consider Russian statements linked to the NATO expansion. The Deputy Head of the General Staff Faculty stressed that despite Russian withdrawal from Kyiv and other occupied areas, Russia still had enough potential to fight against the collective Wes.
On the subject of nuclear weapons deployment in Belarus, he noted that the "return" of nuclear weapons in Belarus was an indicator of stability. It was also a deterrence measure, and he expressed his astonishment that Western media (“CNN, Guardian and even ISW”) did not predict such a move after the recent change of the Belarusian constitution. But he stated that nuclear weapons would only be used in case of creating an offensive grouping against Belarus, which Minsk and Russia would not be able to defeat conventionally. Belarus would not attack anyone without a grave reason, he stressed.
Two days later, the Head of the Main Ideological Work Department, Maj. Gen. Leonid Kasinsky also commented on the situation around Belarus.
According to him, the international security system was currently not working. Kasinsky noted that Belarusian citizens are being trained in Poznań in Poland to destabilise the situation in Belarus, which violates all norms of international law.
On the other hand, he claimed that the Belarusian Armed Forces were ready to adopt the “rich” experience of the Wagner mercenaries. Kasinsky noted that every service member should learn from his enemies and friends and draw conclusions from their experiences. However, Kasinsky noted that representatives of the organisation did not arrive in Belarus and also pointed out that a "famous" camp near Osipovichi was created for the needs of the Belarusian Territorial Defence Troops.
Besides, the Head of the Main Ideological Work Department referred to the nuclear weapons transfer as not meant to scare anyone. Kasinsky quoted Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and informed that nuclear weapons might be only used during the aggression against Belarus. Besides, Kasinsky noted that Belarusian military-political leadership would not disclose the location of where nuclear weapons would be stored.
Interestingly, the Belarusian military monitoring team Belarusian Hajun noted that Kasinsky's statements were most likely part of the Belarusian disinformation campaign. The same source informed that about 200 Wagner personnel might be currently deployed at the Losvido Training Ground and were already used to train Belarusian soldiers.
On Saturday, one of the Wagner Commanders, Anton Yelizarov, confirmed that mercenaries would arrive in Belarus. According to him, the transfer would be demanding because it would require coordination with local authorities, law enforcement agencies, and other specific logistic measures. Notably, unverified sources provided a video presenting dozens of Russian military vehicles (various trucks, UAZs, Strela and Pantsir-S1 air defence systems) reportedly belonging to Wagner moving towards Belarus.
Also, last week, the Belarusian Hajun project provided data on this year’s conscription. According to published data, about 25% of all conscripts would undergo (part of) their service in the 72nd Joint Training Center. The centre offers an "alternative" to the standard military service – it provides a 2-5-month training course, which allows conscripts to serve as specialists or command roles – squad commanders, T-72/BMP-2 drivers etc. Most of those conscripts will continue their service in other military formations. However, considering the earlier data linked to the spring draft (SD), it seems that their number recently increased:
A slight increase also appeared when it came to the soldiers "distributed" to the Belarusian SOF, Internal Forces (+20 servicemen compared to SD22) and Border Guards (+50 servicemen compared to SD22).
The abovementioned data suggest that Belarusian Army spread its conscripts across main security formations rather than prioritising certain military units. The Belarusian Hajun assesses that such numbers will negatively impact the creation of the Southern Operational Command as the current intake of conscripts is too small to satisfy the increasing needs of the military. We believe that this does not need to be the case. The increase in the number of personnel sent to the 72nd Centre could suggest Minsk will use them as the basis for the creation of new military units. But so far, no evidence emerged that Minsk is in the process of forming the Southern Operational Command.
Military exercises
Last week, most of the training actions engaged elements of all Belarusian mechanised brigades. However, elements of the Belarusian SOF and the Air Force and Air Defence Forces also trained. Due to the Belarusian Independence Day, no training actions took place on Monday.
Among mechanised formations, the communication battalion of the 19th Mechanised Brigade started a control exercise on Tuesday. A day later, at least one tank platoon of the 6th Mechanised Brigade conducted T-72B firing exercises at the Gozhsky Training Ground. Also, soldiers of the 339th Mechanised Battalion (120th Mechanised Brigade) started combat training classes at the Uruchcha Training Ground, which lasted at least until Thursday. On this day, motor rifle and tank subunits of the 120th Mechanised Brigade conducted T-72 and BMP-2 firing at the 227th Combined Arms Training Ground. At the same time, personnel of the 11th Mechanised Brigade underwent tactical training classes linked to engineering training.
Regarding the Belarusian SOF, on Tuesday, servicemen of the 38th Air Assault Brigade likely participated in combat training classes at the Brestsky Training Ground. A day later, an unspecified formation’s subunit underwent a complex special-tactical exercise at the exact location.
A day later, the selected servicemen of the 5th Spetsnaz Brigade carried out planned ultralight aircraft flights. They involved YASTREB (Hawk) two-seat gyroplane used for aerial reconnaissance and cargo delivery.
On Saturday, the company commanders and their deputies of the 103rd Airborne Brigade participated in combat training at the Losvido Training Ground.
Regarding the Belarusian Air Force, Belarusian Military Academy (Aviation Faculty) cadets did training flights on L-39 training aircraft from the 116th Assault Aviation Base on Wednesday. A day later, soldiers of the 56th Communications Regiment participated in the ongoing special-tactical exercise held directly under the Chief of Communications and Radiotechnical Troops of the Belarusian Air Force and Air Defence Forces. The exercise occurred as a preparation for the upcoming special-operational exercise of the Belarusian Communication Troops.
Besides, the annual gathering of Belarusian military divers started on Friday. It was run was the 188th Engineering Brigade and would last 12 days, during which its participants would undergo a series of tests linked to underwater reconnaissance and dealing with underwater explosives.
Last week, unofficial sources reported several noteworthy movements of Belarusian military equipment.
Tuesday:
Three S-300 launchers were moving on the R63 road near Kostyuki;
Wednesday:
Up to 15 vehicles, including communications and "support" systems, were moving from Bereza towards Kobryn;
About seven various trucks headed to Minsk from Stolbtsy;
About eight covered trucks were moving near the Mound of Glory;
Thursday:
Two trailers with two Tochka-U SRBM launchers headed towards Maryina Horka from Osipovichi;
Several BTRs and BMPs marked with red squares were moving in Gomel;
Friday:
A Ural-4320 truck with a Gazelle vehicle towing two Su-30MK2 fighters was moving from Stolbtsy towards Baranovichi.
Russian military activity in Belarus
Last week, the Russian forces deployed in Belarus conducted a rotation of their forces. According to the Belarusian Hajun, between 3JUL and 5JUL, at least five military echelons with about 104 vehicles (including a minimum of 15 T-62M tanks, several 2S1 SPHs, three BM-21s, as well as engineering and supporting vehicles with dozens of trucks) and at least 650 servicemen left Belarus.
On the other hand, at least two cargo aircraft landed in Belarus. It pertains to An-26 (RF-36009) and An-72 (RF-90318), which landed on Monday at Machulischy Air Base.
Besides, the Russian aviation component conducted several training flights. The same base hosted training flights of:
· at least one Mi-8 helicopter (Monday);
· at least two unspecified fighters (Thursday);
· an unspecified number of fighters (Friday);