Belarus Security Update – 4 September – 10 September 2023
A summary of key events in Belarus
BLUF
No changes in the posture of the Belarusian Armed Forces were recorded last week.
Executive summary
Last week, Minsk continued to host the “Combat Brotherhood-2023” CSTO exercise. However, the scale of the drill was somewhat limited.
The activity of the Belarusian military representatives focused either on the exercise or cultural events linked to annual holidays or anniversaries. Nevertheless, some officials provided some notable statements.
Putting aside the “Combat Brotherhood-2023”, the Belarusian Armed Forces presented a rather decreased training tempo. Only several military formations underwent independent exercises.
Russian forces in Belarus were not particularly active, although unofficial press reports claimed that the Russian air component left Belarus last week.
Members of the Wagner PMC similarly displayed almost no activity.
Political developments
07SEP2023
Unofficial data on Belarusian President plans
On Thursday (7SEP), Belarusian organisation BELPOL (reformed Belarusian Union of Security Officers – BYPOL) provided information about President Alexander Lukashenko’s plans to prepare Belarus for a future military conflict.
According to BELPO, several new laws are currently being considered by Belarusian authorities, including:
Increasing punishment for avoiding conscription;
Increasing average fine (by five/six times) for not appearing in a military enlistment office or violating military registration rules;
Obligating mobile operators to provide telephone numbers of citizens for military registration purposes to send them SMS notifications;
Obligating citizens to arrive at a local military enlistment office after SMS notification;
Limiting liability of medical personnel supporting “illegal conscription”;
Introducing summon delivery to a workplace address (not only to a residential address);
Introducing the Presidential right to authorise admission of citizens to military service without considering restrictions coming from the current legislation acts (maximum age, criminal past, etc.)
As BELPOL noted, the Belarusian President wants to be able to “recruit” all Belarusian citizens, also those with criminal records, if necessary.
BELPOL comments seem to correlate with recent Belarusian military-political representatives’ efforts to “seal” conscription and reserve training of the Belarusian citizens. In recent months, the Belarusian Armed Forces decreased certain health requirements for citizens and reduced the attractiveness of an alternative service (in Belarus, if one does not want to join the army, he can be offered to serve this time in other government institutions). They also adopted laws to increase the length and intensity of reserve training classes. Reservists, if called up, will thus strengthen the Belarusian Armed Forces’ mobilisational potential, even if the level of training is limited. It thus seems probable that the Belarusian leadership would adopt laws mentioned by BELPOL in the future.
08SEP2023
State awards for servicemen of the Belarusian Armed Forces
On Friday (08SEP), Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko awarded more than 60 citizens with state awards. This group also included two representatives of the Belarusian Armed Forces.
This refers to the Head of the Special Purpose Detachment of the 432nd Main Military Clinical Medical Center (MMCMC), Col. Andrey Gurinovich, who received the order “For Service to the Motherland” (3rd degree), as well as the Head of the Belarusian Military Band Service, Col. Igor Khlebus awarded with the title of the honoured Belarusian artist.
The first nomination likely resulted from the significant activity of the MMCMC’s Special Purpose Detachment in recent months. Soldiers of this formation independently participated in a few combat readiness checks. They also supported large-scale combat and mobilisation readiness checks of the 11th Mechanised Brigade held in APR23 and supported Russian ground forces during their deployments to Belarus in late 2022-early 2024. Moreover, medical personnel of the subunit provided medical support for Syrian citizens following FEB23 earthquake.
The reasons behind the second award are not known.
Military developments
04SEP-06SEP2023
CSTO drills
During the “Combat Brotherhood-2023” (CB-2023) exercise, representatives of the Belarusian military leadership personally attended several ceremonies linked to the drills.
On Monday (04SEP), Belarusian Minister of Defence, Lt. Gen. Viktor Khrenin, with the Commander of the Belarusian Air Force and Air Defence Forces, Maj. Gen. Andrey Lukyanovich arrived to observe one of the CB-2023 episodes.
During its course, Khrenin also commented on the ongoing practical actions. He highlighted that drills were planned and open, and because of that, Western politicians should stop looking for “conspiracy theories” about them. According to Khrenin, some officials tried to demonise Belarus, which took part in CB annually and, to address Western concerns, invited representatives representing 19 countries (including three from NATO) to observe the drill. The Head of the Belarusian MoD claimed that some “Western neighbours” (Poland) refused to observe the exercise, which once again demonstrated that they were not interested in establishing good relations with Belarus.
Khrenin commented on the recent (potential) Belarusian air space violation by the Polish Mi-24 helicopter, noting that Polish pilots should train more. According to him, the violation resulted from the crew’s poor training level; because of that, Belarus did not consider the incident a provocation.
Two days later (06SEP), the Chief of Belarusian General Staff, Maj. Gen. Viktor Gulevich led the closing ceremony of the CB-2023 exercise.
The event took place at the Brestsky Training Ground and involved CSTO officials and representatives of the collective forces. This included the Chief of CSTO Joint Staff, Col. Gen. Anatoly Sidorov and the Chief of Kazakhstan General Staff, Maj. Gen. Erlis Terdikbaev, as well as foreign military attaches and observers.
After the last episode of the drills, Gulevich spoke to the participants at the closing ceremony. He pointed out that the “Combat Brotherhood-2023” exercise could be considered one of the most important events of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation in 2023. The Chief of Belarusian General Staff claimed that the exercise was carried out per the approved plan developed using experience from the modern military conflict.
According to Gulevich, CSTO Collective Forces presented a high training level and completed all set tasks. They demonstrated and proved their readiness to respond to any threats, which was especially important due to the difficult regional military-political situation combined with the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian conflict and the buildup of NATO forces near CSTO borders, Gulevich said.
04SEP-08SEP2023
International activity of the Belarusian military representatives
Between Monday (04SEP) and Friday (08SEP), the Head of the Belarusian International Military Cooperation Department (IMCD), Col. Valery Revenko, provided some statements mainly linked to the Belarusian-Polish military relations.
On Monday (04SEP), Revenko stated that Poland deliberately violated the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) concerning Belarus. According to him, Poland ignored proposals to resume the dialogue in arms control and even accused Minsk of destabilising the situation in the region.
In addition, Belarusian “Western neighbour” did provide information about its armed forces and subsequently acquired additional military systems – tanks, ACVs, artillery and air assets.
As the Head of the IMCD noted, it can’t be ruled out that the total number of systems operated by the Polish Armed Forces would exceed levels set by the Budapest Agreement.
Two days later (06SEP), the Head of the IMCD informed about the unspecified working meeting of the Belarusian and Russian Armed Forces representatives in Moscow. It partially pertained to the unification of legislation in the military sphere. However, no additional details appeared in public.
On Friday (08SEP), Revenko confirmed unofficial data published by Reform.by news outlet informing that Belarus would suspend the CFE Treaty concerning Poland and the Czech Republic. Revenko said such a measure was a symmetric response to the analogical Polish and Czech decisions.
05SEP-06SEP2023
Belarusian military officials in the Belarusian Military Academy
On Tuesday (05SEP), Belarusian Minister of Defence, Lt. Gen. Viktor Khrenin and Chief of General Staff, Maj. Gen. Viktor Gulevich visited the General Staff Faculty of the Belarusian Military Academy (BMA). They were assisted by the heads of the BMA and General Staff Faculty, Maj. Gen. Gennady Lepeshko and Maj. Gen. Igor Demidenko.
According to an official statement, Khrenin lectured students about the military policy of the state in modern conditions. Gulevich also gave his speech to students. However, its subject was not specified.
A day later (06SEP), Maj. Gen Demidenko welcomed first-year students attending the operational-tactical level degree programme. Based on published materials, we assume the current group involves at least 13 students representing the Belarusian Armed Forces, Internal Troops, State Border Committee and KDB (KGB).
08SEP – 09SEP2023
Day of Tankman
On 10SEP, the Belarusian Armed Forces annually celebrated the Day of Tankers. Since the day fell on Sunday, this year’s celebratory events were organised on Friday (08SEP) and Saturday (09SEP).
On Friday (08SEP), representatives of the Belarusian military leadership took part in the official ceremony held in the Central House of Officers, where Lt. Gen. Viktor Khrenin laid flowers at a local T-34 tank monument.
During the event, Khrenin provided a short speech on the Soviet heritage of the Belarusian soldiers. He referred to the history of the Belarusian Military District (MD), considered the most powerful MD (“tank MD”) of the Soviet Armed Forces and claimed that the contemporary Belarusian servicemen continued the traditions of their predecessors with dignity and high professionalism. He pointed out that the Belarusian Armed Forces currently operated a single tank battalion equipped with T-72B3 MBTs and three battalions with modern BTR-82A APCs.
A day later (09SEP), Belarusian military leadership representatives led by Khrenin attended an event near Beshenkovichi, where he unveiled a monument dedicated to the Belarusian tankers (Su-100 tank destroyer).
Kherenin once again spoke about World War II. He highlighted the involvement of tank forces in the victory over fascism and mentioned the battle near the Komarin village. According to him, Soviet tank units actively participated in liberating Belarusian territory, so their memory would be commemorated with a new monument where the battle took place.
Military exercises
04SEP-06SEP2023
Combat Brotherhood-2023
Undoubtedly, the “Combat Brotherhood-2023” exercise was the main training event of the Belarusian Armed Forces last week. It included several smaller exercises (Interaction, Search, Echelon and Barrier) dedicated to specialised subunits.
On Monday, logistic subunits, as well as the air assets of the 50th Mixed (An-26), 61st Fighter (Su-30SM) and 116th Assault (Su-25 and Yak-130) Aviation Bases, conducted landings and take-offs from a highway strip on the M1 highway between Minsk and Brest.
The exercise sought to increase the survivability of Belarusian air assets. The An-26 cargo aircraft landed first – it remained under cover of two Belarusian Su-30SM fighters, two Mi-24 helicopters and soldiers (presumably the 110th Logistic Regiment and unspecified anti-air subunit) responsible for protection of the highway strip. Two Su-25 and Yak-130, as well as the Su-30SM fighter, followed An-26 and landed shortly after. It was the first time a double-seat Su-30SM fighter landed at a highway strip in Belarus.
A day later (05SEP), subunits of the special forces involved in the “Interaction-2023” exercise conducted a counter-terrorist (special) operation to rescue hostages at the Brest Hydroelectric Complex.
The Belarusian MoD claimed that the episode involved personnel from Kazakhstan, Belarusian Almaz and Storm subunits (subordinated to the Belarusian Internal Affairs Ministry) and firefighters of the Belarusian Ministry of Emergency Situations. Unofficial sources confirmed this information, suggesting that elements of the Belarusian Armed Forces did not directly participate in the drill.
At the same time (05SEP), reconnaissance subunits involved in the “Search-2023” exercise were evacuated by Belarusian Mi-8 helicopters (TN:85) from the area of their operations.
According to an official statement, CSTO Collective Forces completed all tasks – for the last five days, they worked to reconnoitre mock enemy forces and adjusted artillery and aviation fire to destroy them at the 230th Combined Arms Training Ground.
Also, on Tuesday (05SEP), subunits of the Belarusian Transport Troops participated in the “Echelon-2023” drills at six sites. They were responsible for restoring the road and railway movement interrupted by the reconnaissance and sabotage groups of the mock enemy. Notably, both the Chief of Logistics and Maj. Gen. Andrey Burdyko and the Head of the Transport Support Department, Maj. Gen. Yuri Shaplavsky observed the events.
On Wednesday (06SEP), the final episode of the CB-2023 occurred at the Brestsky Training Ground. It likely engaged all subunits of the CSTO Collective Forces and Belarusian rotary-wing (Mi-8 and Mi-24) and fixed-wing (Su-25) air assets. The scenario of the episode assumed that an illegal armed group entered Belarusian territory and moved to the area, which would allow it to escape. To counter it, CSTO engaged its collective forces and the subunits of the Border Guards and Internal Troops.
According to the Belarusian Special Operation Forces (SOF) Commander, Maj. Gen. Vadim Denisenko, reconnaissance subunits, conducted parachute jumps from 180 metres (“to limit time in the air”) and executed a mine ambush on the route of the mock enemy. Denisenko noted that servicemen of the Belarusian SOF performed such action (mine ambush after parachute jump) periodically, but it appeared for the first time during the “Interaction” drills. In general, the collective forces were able to stop and destroy a group of the simulated enemy.
After the episode, the Chief of CSTO Joint Staff, Col. Gen. Anatoly Sidorov, noted that collective forces once again demonstrated high “combat skills” and coordinated actions. Sidorov thanked CSTO members for their hard work and pointed out their professionalism was necessary to ensure military security in the current military-political situation. A representative of the Iranian General Staff, Gen. Nasser Bohlouli, claimed that military personnel of the CSTO Collective Forces demonstrated excellent training and fulfilled all tasks during the “Combat Brotherhood-2023” exercise.
04SEP-06SEP2023
Air Defence exercises
Last week, air defence formations presented a visible training activity.
On Monday (04SEP), soldiers of the 1st Air Defence Regiment took part in the first phase of their tactical exercise. During its course, they started combat duty at the destinated area, camouflaged their launchers and prepared defence zones at unspecified locations.
Subsequently, elements of the 120th Air Defence Brigade took part in the operational-tactical exercise held at the Domanovo Training Ground. According to available data, soldiers of the 120th Air Defence Brigade underwent the first episode of the exercise between Monday (04SEP) and Wednesday (06SEP). They initially marched to the training ground, where they prepared and camouflaged firing positions to secure them against reconnaissance and sabotage groups of the mock enemy.
According to unverified data, the 15th Air Defence Brigade soldiers could have also participated in the abovementioned exercise. However, this information has not been confirmed.
04SEP-07SEP2023
Training activity of mechanised formations
Last week, presumably, only the 11th and 120th Mechanised Brigade conducted standalone drills, which were not related to the “Combat Brotherhood-2023”.
On Monday (04SEP) and Wednesday (06SEP), the 11th Mechanised Brigade soldiers underwent training classes. Both of them likely took place at the Chepelevo Training Ground. Notably, the formation’s Chief of the Rocket and Artillery Armaments directly supervised the first drill.
On Wednesday (06SEP), the 120th Mechanised Brigade hosted a training gathering of the North-Western Operational Command medical service personnel. During its course, soldiers learned about providing medical help on the battlefield from representatives of the Military Medical Institute of the Belarusian State Medical University.
A day later (07SEP), soldiers of the 120th Mechanised Brigade took part in a readiness review.
Interestingly, it was meant to check the state of the subunits, which would “participate in the comprehensive bilateral exercise of the Belarusian Armed Forces”. This statement suggests a major readiness exercise soon to be organised, which could take the form of a bilateral exercise.
Because soldiers of the 19th and 120th Mechanised Brigade underwent a bilateral command-staff exercise in mid-AUG23, it can’t be ruled out that those formations will be directly involved in a new (potential) exercise.
05SEP-07SEP2023
Training activity of Territorial Defence Forces and Belarusian reservists
On Tuesday (05SEP), the Belarusian MoD informed about the start of the Territorial Defence Forces (TDF) inspection in the Mogilev Oblast. According to the official statement, it would involve TDF reservists of the Mogilev, Osipovichi and Chausy regions and local executive committees. The Head of the Belarusian Territorial Defence Forces will supervise the drill.
In the meantime, about 20 Belarusian reservists from Kobryn and Zhabinsky Regions were sent to training camps.
A day later (06SEP), presumably 11 reservists (of military registration and equipment maintenance specialities) from the Pruzhany region also departed to planned training camps.
07SEP-08SEP2023
Training activity of the Belarusian Special Operation Forces
Last week, the Belarusian Special Forces presented limited activity resulting from their significant involvement in the CSTO drills.
Nevertheless, on Thursday (07SEP), personnel of the 38th Air Assault Brigade participated in fire training exercises.
A day later (08SEP), soldiers of the 103rd Airborne Brigade conducted parachute jumps from a Mi-8MTV5 helicopter (TN:85). Jumps involved at least 30-40 servicemen who jumped out from 800 metres near Shumilino.
Noteworthy movements of Belarusian military equipment
Last week, several noteworthy transfers of Belarusian military equipment occurred. Still, they mostly were linked to CSTO drills and Tankers Day celebrations.
Monday (04SEP)
Seven BTRs with a single GAZ-66 truck were moving from Gomel towards Rechitsa.
Tuesday (05SEP)
Two MAZ trucks with a microbus and a police van were moving in Brest.
Wednesday (06SEP):
Two S-300 launchers were moving from Stolbtsy towards Dzhyarzhynsk;
At least ten covered MAZ and Ural trucks were moving in the opposite direction.
Thursday (07SEP):
Eight MAZ buses, two UAZ vehicles, and a single MAZ truck were moving in Baranovichi.
Friday (08SEP):
Two trucks with presumably a radar station were moving towards Baranovichi from Ivatsevichy;
Five Volat vehicles with four MAZ trucks were moving from Stolbtsy towards Baranovichi;
At least six MAZ trucks with four fuel trucks were moving towards Volma from Stolbtsy (through Dzyarzhynsk Minsk);
Saturday (09SEP):
Three BTRs, a single S-300 launcher, and a few unspecified supporting vehicles (likely trucks) were moving on
Russian military activity in Belarus
Last week, at least two Russian cargo aircraft arrived in Belarus.
This refers to IL-76s (RA-76552 and RA-78847) that landed on Tuesday (05SEP) and Wednesday (06SEP), respectively.
The only reported and noteworthy movement of Russian military equipment occurred on Tuesday (05SEP). It involved up to eight Kamaz trucks moving towards Maryina Horka from Dukora.
Three days later (08SEP), the Belarusian Hajun team confirmed that Russians withdrew all Union State Grouping Air Component air assets from Belarus on 5AUG.
According to the source, about 2,100 Russian soldiers remained in Belarus. However, none were part of the Union State Grouping of Forces. Up to 600 servicemen were located in Velyky Bokov and Zyabrovka Airfields (S-400 sites), while up to 1,450 remained in the Vileika and Baranovichi radio engineering and communication nodes).
Wagner PMC activity in Belarus
Last week, no information about the activity of the Wagner PMC mercenaries in Belarus appeared.
The Belarusian Hajun team noted a recent decrease in the tents reported in the Tsel village. There are about 130 tents compared to 292 reported on 28JUL. Nonetheless, the source assessed that the number of mercenaries likely remained unchanged – 4,000-4,500 men.