Belarus Security Update - 7 August - 13 August 2023
Executive summary
Last week, the Belarusian Armed Forces were heavily involved in artillery and mechanised formations exercises. The exercise tempo increased significantly compared to the previous weeks. Still, we understand that the ongoing exercises are part of a routine summer training schedule and unrelated to ongoing tensions with Belarusian neighbours.
Notable procurement news included the delivery of R-414MBRP radio relay stations and B-200 Polonaise MLR systems. Minsk also plans to modernise some of its Su-25 aircraft, but it is unclear whether this is related to the planned delivery of nuclear warheads to Belarus, which these airframes were to carry.
Lastly, we assess that reports about Wagner’s withdrawal from Belarus are unsubstantiated. We have seen no evidence in open sources (videos, pictures) or in satellite imagery that any elements of the Wagner organisation were being pulled back from Belarus.
Political developments
No notable political developments occurred over the past seven days. Nevertheless, Belarusian military-political officials openly spoke about the current situation around the state. Their statements mainly focused on Poland.
09AUG2023
Firstly, the Belarusian Secretary of the State Security Council, Lt. Gen. Alexander Volfovich, briefly commended the current political-military situation around Belarus in line with Luhashenko.
Volfovich claimed that Belarus was currently “fighting for harvest” (a harvesting campaign is now ongoing in Belarus, which the armed forces support by deploying personnel and equipment to assist agriculture workers), but subsequently, its Western neighbours were “striving for other battles”. Certain Western politicians still thought about “inter-bloc confrontation” using Cold War categories and were constantly trying to escalate the current situation, Wolfovich said.
Col. Valery Revenko [the Chief of the International Military Co-operation Department, Assistant to the Defence Minister for Foreign Military Policy] also accused Poland of ignoring Belarusian proposals to resume bilateral military dialogue. He said Poles did not explain why they would increase their military presence near the Belarusian border.
Revenko noted that Belarus sent notifications to all OSCE states to inform them about the upcoming “largest event of military activity” in 2023. This probably refers to Zapad-2023 and Union State-2023 military exercises planned for SEP2023. Currently, their scale remains unclear. Exercises may be correlated with CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organisation) joint drills (Interaction-2023, Search-2023, and Barrier-2023), also planned for September.
Also on Wednesday, Ravenko met with Vietnamese Defence Attache, Col. Nguyen Van Tien. According to the official statement, officers discussed implementing a bilateral cooperation plan and intensifying military cooperation. Diplomats also spoke about the organisation of unspecified “high-level” meetings. Considering that the Head of the Belarusian Ministry of Defence, Lt. Gen. Viktor Khrenin, recently met with his Chinese and Iranian counterparts, it is possible that the Ravenko-Van Tien meeting sought to prepare the ground for the minister-level encounter that may take place soon.
10AUG2023
Revenko met the Kazakhstan Military Attache to Belarus, Col. Kuat Kurmyshev, on Thursday. Kurmyshev was accredited in Belarus during the meeting, but other subjects of the conversations pertained to the state and prospects of bilateral military relations between Belarus and Kazakhstan. Officially, both sides reaffirmed their readiness to strengthen “friendly ties” in the military sphere.
11AU2023
On Friday, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko visited the Minsk Airport and Minsk Civil Aviation Plant No. 407. There he was asked a question about possible changes in Belarusian relations with foreign partners.
Lukashenko highlighted that Belarus would not fight with anyone and would like to cooperate with every state. He pointed out Poland as an example, noting similarities between Belarusian and Polish people, who are “Slavs” and are “not stupid at all”. Lukashenko claimed he recently ordered Belarusian Prime Minister to establish working contacts with Polish leadership.
However, the Belarusian President also spoke about the upcoming elections in Poland. According to him, any further contact with the Polish side would be impossible before that date (15OCT) because the ruling party wanted to justify its vast procurement programmes by escalating the situation near Belarus.
Regarding potential negotiations between states, Lukashenko claimed that Poland required too much from Belarus, which didn’t concur with Belarusian interests.
Lukashenko also spoke shortly about his negotiations with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky after the outbreak of the full-scale invasion in February 2022 [Ukraine and Russia to meet for peace talks ‘without preconditions,’ Zelensky says (nypost.com)]. As noted, Lukashenko presented Zelensky with various variants to stabilise the situation and stop the conflict from expanding. However, the latter preferred to listen to the United States, which “resulted in the current situation”.
At the same time, Revenko met with the Defence Attache of Turkey, Col. Atakan Sarach. During the meeting, officers discussed the further steps of developing bilateral relations and the current state of military cooperation.
Rochan’s comments: No major political-military decisions were announced last week. Despite this, Minsk increased propaganda efforts directed at Western audiences. Belarus may be looking to open a window for economic talks even though the EU declared new sanctions last week. On the other hand, this could be a feint, especially following the Polish border violation that occurred two weeks ago and the armed forces’ training regime, which is continually heightened.
Military developments
Procurement
07AUG2023
On Monday, the Belarusian State Military-Industrial Committee announced that the armed forces received another batch of provided R-414MBRP radio relay stations. The number of systems on order and already handed over is unclear. Sosna-2 is designed to organise radio relay and cable communications, broadband radio access and radio communications as part of field communication centres or command posts. The stations may be sent to the signal battalion of the 60th Signal Regiment [Barysaw].
08AUG2023
The Belarusian MoD informed about the introduction of B-200 Polonaise launchers to the 231st Artillery Brigade subordinated to the North-Western Operational Command.
The MoD published a press release which stated that an MLRS Battalion from the 231st Artillery Brigade began a field exit. During the drill, the personnel will study the BM-27 220 mm Uragan MLR and the B-200 Polonaise systems. The brigade is known to operate the BM-27 within its MLRS battalion, while the only Polonaise-equipped unit ( the 336th Multiple Rocket Launcher Brigade) was subordinated directly to the General Staff. The release also stated that the 231st Artillery Brigade would soon receive B-200 systems.
Before August, the 231st Artillery Brigade consisted of two artillery battalions equipped with 152 mm 2A65 “MSTA-B” towed howitzers, two artillery battalions with 152 mm 2S5 “Giatsint-S” self-propelled guns, and one MLRS battalion equipped with 9P140 BM-27 Uragan.
Rochan’s comments:
This development suggests that Belarusian General Staff is increasing the autonomy of the land forces’ operational commands (OC), which will receive artillery assets so far reserved for central subordination units. The B-200 has a maximum range of about 200 kilometres, which will significantly increase the strike capabilities of an OC Commander. Due to the introduction of such assets into the North-Western OC, it seems likely that the artillery brigade subordinated to the Western Operational Command (111th Artillery Brigade) could also receive long-range MLRS in the future. So far, the 336th Multiple Rocket Launcher Brigade has operated six B-200s, and two other artillery brigades will likely receive a similar number of platforms.
09AUG2023
On Wednesday, the 74th Communications Regiment opened a renovated maintenance and repair facility.
The Communications Directorate of the General Staff financed the programme, which was completed within a year. According to the unit commander, Col. Dmitry Goroshko, the new facility will significantly improve the maintenance capabilities of the unit.
11AUG2023
On Friday, the Belarusian Hajun military monitoring team reported about the modernisation of Belarusian Su-25 close air support aircraft. They claimed the MoD had ordered an overhaul of eight airframes from the 116th Assault Aviation Base to be completed in Currently, the Belarusian Air Force fields about 22 Su-25s. The last such modernisation order was placed in 2020 when Belarusians overhauled four airframes at the 558th Aviation Repair Plant in Baranovichi. It is unclear whether there is any correlation between this modernisation order and the deployment of nuclear weapons to Belarus, which Su-25s were meant to carry.
The MoD informed about several trespassing attempts at various facilities. The Ministry said these attempts occurred within the past two weeks. The alleged trespassers tried to enter unspecified areas and fly a UAV over a garrison of one of the Belarusian military formations. Belarusian electronic warfare (EW) assets denied UAV operations, while unspecified people were detained and handed to Belarusian law enforcement agencies.
The Ministry of Defence released photos showing Belarusian Special Operation Forces soldiers protecting the border. Such materials appeared on Thursday and Friday (10AUG and 11AUG). Published photos presented pre-prepared checkpoints guarded by at least a single SOF squad supported by the likely BTR-70MB1 (presumably 103rd Airborne Brigade). Interestingly, the Belarusian news outlet Флагшток noted that materials could be created in the vicinity of Zyabrovka Airfield, where Russian soldiers are currently deployed.
This hypothesis was based on the data of the Gomel Military Commissariat, which informed about the deployment of SOF soldiers in this area and the presence of old concrete blocks built mostly near military airfields. This combination suggests that the Belarusian photo session was staged.
Military exercises
07 – 9AUG2023
The 6th Mechanised Brigade commenced a command-staff exercise at the Gozhsky Training Ground, located near the border with Poland and Lithuania. Minsk attempted to inflate the impact of the exercise by highlighting the connection between the exercise and the situation in the Suwalki corridor (so-called Suwałki gap).
The exercise’s official military aim was to improve C2 during combat actions.
The Belarusian MOD claimed that the drill was based on the experiences of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict and focused on the joint use of the UAVs and interaction between tank, mechanised and other (specialised) subunits.
The 6th Mechanised Brigade soldiers first underwent combat medicine classes and conducted CASEVAC. On the second day, personnel focused on conducting ambushes and performed live ammo firing. The last episode [Thursday] involved tank crews of presumably the 52nd Tank Battalion, which led manoeuvre defence actions.
It is highly possible that an anti-air battalion of the 6th Mechanised Brigade also took place in this exercise.
According to the Commander of the Western OC, Col. Vladimir Bely, the 6th Mechanised Brigade soldiers faced a “dynamically changing situation”. They carried out defensive actions on a broad front both day and night.
The drill resounded widely within the Polish infosphere as concerns about Belarusian actions near the border continued influencing public debate. Seeing how effective Belarusian “pitches” are, we expect Minsk to continue to fuel uncertainties about its actions and to undertake further provocations near the border.
09 – 11AUG2023
The 120th Mechanised Brigade also conducted its exercise. On 9AUG, personnel of the anti-air battalion took part in fire training classes conducted as a part of the ongoing field exit to the Domanovo Training Ground.
On Friday (11AUG), the 227th Combined Arms Training Ground hosted T-72 firing classes of the 334th or 355th Tank Battalion. During their course, tanks of the 120th Mechanised Brigade struck their targets from closed firing positions.
06–11AUG2023
On Sunday, subunits of the 111th Artillery Brigade left the garrison via rail and arrived at Polonka Railway Station. Shortly after, they most likely marched to the 230th Combined Arms Training Ground (Obuz-Lesniovsky), where practical exercising began. They included special training classes on camouflage, adjusting artillery fire, and live fire.
On Tuesday, the MLRS Battalion of the 231st Artillery Brigade started its field exit. The location of the drills remains unclear. However, they are meant to prepare soldiers of the subunit for the incoming adoption of the Belarusian-made B-200 Polonaise launchers.
On Wednesday, the Osipovichi Training Ground hosted another joint tactical and fire training class with the Wagner PMC units. Drills again involved personnel of the 51st Artillery Brigade, who practised to improve tactical medicine and the movement on the battlefield. Practical actions probably continued.
On this day, an instructor-methodical lesson was held under the Commander of the 336th Reactive Artillery Brigade. Technical training was supervised by the Deputy Commander for Armaments of the same formation.
On Thursday, the 51st Artillery Brigade servicemen underwent engineering and firing training with “Wagnerities”. On Thursday, a heavy artillery battery and command-staff vehicle crews underwent a series of fire drills. Moreover, another control class with live ammo firing was organised.
Also on Thursday, at least two 2S1 Gvozdika/2S3 Akatsiya SPH batteries of the 310th Artillery Group (120th Mechanised Brigade) started their exit. Considering that the military echelon with their assets appeared in Barysaw, it seems likely that the units were also destined for the 227th Combined Arms Training Ground.
Between Tuesday and Thursday, the Chief of the Rocket Forces and Artillery, Col. Ruslan Chechkov, started a three-day gathering of Belarusian artillerymen. The event occurred in Osipovichi (based on the 51st Artillery, 336th Reactive Artillery and 465th Missile Brigades). It involved recent graduates and officers recently called up as a part of the reserve call.
On Friday, an analogical event occurred when 88 young officers of logistic and transport specialities arrived at the 65th Automobile Brigade.
08 – 11AUG2023
On Tuesday, soldiers of the 38th Air Assault Brigade started a comprehensive control exercise with live ammo firing at the Brestsky Training Ground. The exercise presumably lasted at least until Friday.
On Wednesday, soldiers underwent drills related to demining, tactical medicine, including first aid and self-help, and close-quarters combat. The reconnaissance company of the formation participated in the latter.
Also, on Thursday, more than 90 brigade servicemen conducted parachute jumps into the Schedrin Lake. Selected soldiers jumped out from a Mi-8MTV-5 helicopter – only personnel, who made four jumps last year and finished 100-metre swimming tests, could participate in the abovementioned jump.
On Friday, another parachute jump occurred a day later over the Kukovyachino airfield. They involved at least a dozen 103rd Airborne Brigade soldiers who jumped from an An-2 aircraft. After the landing, several soldiers received a “Parachutist” badge, which confirmed they had made their first jumps.
09AUG2023
Notable training events also appeared in other transport formations. This refers to the 36th Road and Bridge Brigade, which hosted the competition for the best battalion commander of Belarusian Transport Troops.
The event included a series of exercises related to military drills, tactical and fire training, NBC protection and physical training that involved 12 participants. The 36th Road and Bridge Brigade representative, Lt. Col. Denis Gladkiy, won the competition. Two other medals went to Slutsk for Lt. Col. Vladislav Vorona and Lt. Col. Vitaly Chirich, representing the 30th Railway Brigade.
The 50th Mixed Aviation and 116th Assault Aviation Bases independently conducted training flights between Tuesday and Friday. According to the MotolkoHelp team, some airframes appeared directly over Minsk. Their location might suggest that Belarusian Air Force was preparing an air parade for the upcoming Day of Air Force (20AUG).
11AUG2023
On Friday, about 150 reservists previously called up to the 841st Artillery Group (11th Mechanised Brigade) finished their reserve training camps. During the official ceremony, the Commander of the 11th Mechanised Brigade, Lt. Col. Sergey Shilin, rewarded reservists who achieved the best results during the camp.
The Belarusian Hajun team informed about the upcoming Belarusian Territorial Defence Forces (TDF) inspection. Based on the public procurement data, Hajun claimed that the inspection would occur between 22AUG and 14SEP in the Polotsk region. It will likely involve at least 120 reservists.
Over the past seven days, a few noteworthy movements of Belarusian military equipment appeared.
07AUG2023 [Monday]:
At least one BTR company (minimum 11 vehicles) headed to Smolevichi from Minsk;
08AUG2023 [Tuesday]:
Four covered MAZ trucks headed to Slutsk from Shischitsy;
10AUG2023 [Thursday]:
At least ten BTRs (including 82A and command-staff variants) with two BRDM-2 reconnaissance vehicles and a single Kamaz truck were moving in Grodno.
During the weekend, also three military echelons appeared in Belarus:
11AUG2023 [Friday]: The first one reportedly involved three mechanised companies (30x BTR, about 22 trucks, three Kayman vehicles and two fuel trucks) and was moving from Rudensk through Pomyslische and Baranovichi to Brest-Yuzhnyy Railway Station;
12AUG2023 [Saturday]: The second one with the equipment of the 103rd Airborne Brigade (at least 15 various trucks, a single command-staff vehicle, as well as a single Drakon armoured car and AS-66 medical vehicle) departed from Vitebsk towards presumably Baranovichi (through Stolbtsy);
12AUG2023 [Saturday]: The third one carried seven ZIL-131 trucks, three MAZ-6317 vehicles and two trailers. It departed from Zhodino towards Barysaw.
Russian military activity in Belarus
Last week, the Russian forces presented almost no activity in Belarus.
09–10 AUG2023
Two An-12 transport aircraft arrived at Gomel Airport on Wednesday and Thursday.
Also, on 9AUG, two Russian Kamaz trucks were moving in Baranovichi.
Wagner PMC activity in Belarus
09AUG2023
On Wednesday, the Russian Telegram channel ВЧК-ОГПУ informed that “Wagnerites” might soon leave Belarus due to problems with their financing. According to the source, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko refused to pay Wagner for their presence in Belarus. As a result, the first batches of 500-600 “Wagnerites” left for Voronezh, Rostov and Krasnodar.
We have not been able to confirm this revelation. We have seen no indications that any large number of Wagner personnel left Tsel or that any operation of a reported size was ongoing.