Key takeaways from last week’s developments:
The overall situation did not change over the past week; Russian forces remained on the offence, especially in the Donetsk Oblast, where they captured some ground west of Avdiivka; Ukrainians conducted localised counterattacks, expanding reserves; However, without a larger influx of personnel, such an approach is not sustainable;
Russian strike campaign against civilian targets in the Kharkiv Oblast continued;
In the Luhansk Direction, Russians continued to attack Ukrainian positions in the Kupyansk and Lyman axes; They reportedly progressed in both areas, but the overall impact on the operational situation in the region was minimal; Ukrainian source claimed that the number of Russian troops deployed in this direction had not changed for months, which probably indicates a lack of intent to conduct a large-scale offensive;
Russian units remained offensively committed in the Bakhmut and Donetsk axes and progressed in both areas; Ukrainian units were focused on conducting manoeuver defence, delaying actions and establishing fortifications in the rear;
Russians sustained attacks on Robotyne and reportedly entered the village;
Despite Russian MoD claims, Ukrainians maintained their presence near Krynky on Dnipro’s left bank;
Russians launched no mass missile strikes last week, but the use of Shahed kamikaze drones intensified significantly;
Executive summary
According to the Ukrainian General Staff (UGS), during the past seven days, in the Kupyansk axis, the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) repelled 11 Russian attacks (28 two weeks ago) near Synkivka, east of Petropavlivka in the Kharkiv Oblast and Stel’makhivka in the Luhansk Oblast. In the Lyman axis, the UAF repelled 62 Russian attacks (49 two weeks ago) near Makiivka and Serebryansky forest in the Luhansk Oblast and east of Terny in the Donetsk Oblast. In the Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Mariinka and Shakhtarske axes, the Ukrainian soldiers repelled 296 Russian ground attacks (337 two weeks ago) near Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, east of Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, Avdiivka, south of Tonen’ke, Nevel’s’ke, Pervomais’ke and Novomykhailivka in the Donetsk Oblast. In the Zaporizhzhia axis, the Ukrainian units repelled 44 Russian attacks (36 two weeks ago) near Verbove, Novopokrovka and Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
According to the UGS, during the past seven days, the Ukrainian Air Force launched air strikes on 48 Russian concentration areas, one command post and one air defence site. The Ukrainian missile forces hit ten Russian concentration areas, one command post, three ammunition depots, five electronic warfare stations (including two R-330Zh Zhitel stations), one artillery system, one TOS-1A Solntsepyok heavy flamethrower system, one Buk-M1 anti-aircraft missile systems, one 1L219 Zoopark counter-battery radar system and two air defence systems.
Over the past seven days, we assess that Ukrainians were not confirmed to have liberated any terrain, while Russians captured around 15 square kilometres. Almost half of this number involved terrain seized in the Donetsk axis (areas west of Avdiivka).
The overall situation remained, therefore, unchanged. Ukrainians lack the capacity to undertake sizable counterattacks to retake the initiative. Last week, we mentioned that Ukrainians were employing reserves in the most threatened parts of the front. At the same time, the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, General Oleksandr Syrsky, announced on Thursday (14MAR) that some units, which have been involved in combat for a long time, were being rotated and replaced with fresher units. It is unclear how big this rotation is, how many units are involved or where it is taking place. But, we assess it to be unlikely that rotation is significant. Ukrainians do not possess the appropriate manpower reserves to afford such a step. When Zelensky dismissed Syrsky’s predecessor, General Zaluzhny, he ordered the new command to conduct rotation, and it appears that Syrsky is now delivering on his promise. In general, we expect no major changes in Ukraine’s operations due to this rotation.
In the meantime, on Tuesday (12MAR), the Ukraine-controlled Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR), and Siberian Battalion launched a series of cross-border raids into Velgorod and Kursk oblasts. Russian units were seen moving in Nekhoteevka, Spodaryushino, in the Belgorod Oblast and Tetkino in the Kursk Oblast. The latter was reportedly captured on the first day, but the veracity of this claim has not been confirmed. The incursion, once again, highlights the Russian inability to protect the state border from relatively small and poorly equipped, albeit mechanised, force. Given that the attack was conducted five days before the Russian presidential elections (scheduled for 15-17MAR), it is almost certain that the Ukrainian objective was to undermine support for Putin and, once again, highlight the Russian regime's inability to protect its civilians. It is, therefore, highly unlikely that the ongoing operation will morph into any larger push into Russia.
Last week, after weeks of inactivity, Ukrainian drones once again started hitting Russian oil infrastructure. The initial event occurred on 9MAR when, according to Russian official sources, 47 drones were intercepted. According to the Russian Defence Ministry, one drone was shot down over the Belgorod region, two near the Kursk region and three over the Volgograd region. Also, 41 UAVs were shot down near Rostov. On the same night, the UAF attacked the Taganrog Air Base, which hosts Russian A-50 AWACS aircraft. Eyewitnesses counted more than 20 explosions. From Tuesday (12MAR), Ukraine increased the scale of drone attacks and hit Kursk, Belgorod, Tula, Voronezh, Nizhny Novgorod, Bryansk, Leningrad, Orel regions, and Moscow. Ukrainian sources reported explosions near an oil depot in Orel. A Lukoil oil depot in the Nizhny Novgorod region was also hit. On Wednesday (13MAR), the Ukrainians launched a second mass attack on Russian oil facilities. Seven Russian regions were attacked: Belgorod, Rostov, Bryansk, Voronezh, Kursk, Leningrad, and Ryazan Oblasts. Russian sources reported that about 65 (at night, 58 drones; in the morning – seven more) drones were shot down over six regions. The Russian Defence Ministry reported intercepting about a hundred Ukrainian drones over two days. According to Andriy Yusov, Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence representative, Ukraine would not comment on the means used to attack the facilities in the Russian Federation. However, he claimed that all facilities the Russians use for military purposes may be subject to similar attacks.
On Friday, additional strikes occurred at the Pervy Zavod refinery in Kaluga, Moscow Oblast. The attacks came at a time when Russia was struggling with the domestic market. On 1MAR, a six-month ban on gasoline exports was introduced to offset rising prices and demand from consumers and farmers and allow for planned refineries’ maintenance. The ban does not extend to Mongolia, Uzbekistan, South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Previously, in mid-January, Ukraine targeted several facilities used to export Russian hydrocarbon products (Ust-Luga and Tuapse). The objective was to limit Russian export potential and thus revue it generates, which, in turn, could impact Russians' ability to sustain the war in Ukraine. The attacks, however, quickly ended, although objectively and militarily speaking, they could have been sustained. As such attacks could undermine the world’s supply, the current Ukrainian campaign seems to focus on creating shortages domestically.
According to Bloomberg, Ukraine's recent drone strikes hit facilities representing 12% of Russia's oil-processing capacity. At the same time, a Russian military expert believes that with the help of UAV attacks on Russian cities, the UAF is trying to find weaknesses in the Russian air defence network to be used for further strikes on the Russian military and critical infrastructure.
Noteworthy events pertaining to the war
Saturday (09MAR)
· Pope Francis said that Ukraine “should have the courage to negotiate peace with Russia”.
· United Kingdom Foreign Secretary David Cameron claimed he was against sending Western troops to Ukraine.
Sunday (10MAR)
· Commander of the Russian Navy, Adm. Nikolay Yevmenov, was likely replaced by the Commander of the Northern Fleet, Adm. Alexander Moiseyev.
Monday (11MAR)
· Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed that Ukraine was building 2,000 kilometres of fortifications.
· Vatican Secretary of State Cardinal Pietro Parolin stressed that Russia should take the first step toward negotiations with Ukraine.
Tuesday (12MAR)
· The United States announced a USD300 million military aid package for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. It includes artillery rounds, GLMRS missiles, as well as anti-tank weapons, mine clearing and maintenance equipment.
· Denmark announced another military aid package for Ukraine. It is worth USD336 million and includes Caesar SPHs, unspecified self-propelled 120-millimetre mortars and ammunition to them.
· Czech National Security Advisor Tomas Pojar informed that artillery ammunition bought for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in non-European countries would likely arrive in Ukraine in JUN.
· The Russian Foreign Ministry summoned Swiss Ambassador Krystyna Marty Lang due to the plans of the Swiss Government to confiscate frozen Russian assets in the state.
Wednesday (13MAR)
· Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed the possibility of peace talks with Ukraine because it was running out of ammunition.
· The Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, informed that Russian representatives would not attend the peace summit organised in Switzerland.
· Bloomberg informed that recent Ukrainian UAV attacks on Russian oil refineries reduced Russian oil refining capacity by 12 per cent.
· Ukrainian Minister of Justice Denys Maliuska stressed that his state “is ready to accept” further United States assistance, even in the form of loans.
Thursday (14MAR)
· NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg claimed that Russia lost more than 350,000 service members since 24FEB2022.
· Head of the Kharkiv Oblast Prosecutor's Office, Oleksandr Filchakov, stated that the Russian Armed Forces used about 50 missiles made in North Korea to attack targets in Ukraine.
· Bulgarian Minister of Defence Todor Tagarev confirmed the delivery of 100 Bulgarian APCs to Ukraine.
· Reuters informed that the Russian Armed Forces likely jammed the satellite signal used by the aircraft of the United Kingdom Defence Secretary Grant Shapps during his return travel from Poland.
Friday (15MAR)
· The European Commission informed about the allocation of about USD544 million to ramp up European capabilities regarding ammunition production.
· A spokesperson of the Ukrainian Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War claimed that the Russian Armed Forces were increasingly involved in the recruitment of mercenaries from countries with difficult economic situations, such as Nepal, Somalia, India, Cuba and others.
· The Swedish Government said it would provide Ukraine with nine coast guard water scooters.
Ukraine battle map
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The situation at selected axes and directions
Below, the reader will find information about Russian and Ukrainian units deployed in respective directions. We attach medium confidence to this data. The list is not exhaustive, either. However, the reader should know that we change/update Russian and Ukrainian ORBATs daily. Secondly, the unknown column shows the number of units whose current whereabouts are unclear. There are a lot of units uncommitted on both sides.
Last week, we noted no significant Ukrainian redeployments.
In the previous week, we noted the emergence of several Ukrainian military units in the Orikhiv (Southern direction) and Donetsk axes (Donetsk direction), suggesting the deployment of reinforcements to hinder Russian operations around Robotyne and Avdiivka.
Ukrainians likely deployed elements of the recently formed 154th Mechanised Brigade (Operational Command South), 141st Reserve Rifle Brigade (Ground Forces Command), as well as 132nd Reconnaissance Battalion (7th Air Assault Corps) near Robotne. Forces near Avdiivka were reinforced with the 26th and 407th Separate Rifle Battalions (Ground Forces Command) and elements of the 425th Assault Battalion (SKALA), which was earlier present in the Horlivka axis of the same direction.
Over the past seven days, Russian Armed Forces were also observed relocating several units, signalling a continuation of their offensive operations in the Donetsk direction.
In the Bakhmut axis, the presence of the TEREK Brigade (PMC) was noted, along with the possible arrival of the mobilised 1442nd Motor Rifle Regiment earlier deployed in the Vuhledar axis (Southern direction). Unofficial sources suggest that the regiment's deployment could be linked to the 6th Motor Rifle Division's (3rd Army Corps) preparations to advance near Klishchiivka. As such, the 1442nd Motor Rifle Regiment could have been placed under the command of the 6th MRD.
The 10th Tank Regiment appeared near Novomykhailivka. We understand that the unit was previously the 10th Tank Battalion (DIESEL), but its structures were expanded into the regiment-level formation. It is possible that the 10th Tank Regiment was placed under the operational command of the 20th Motor Rifle Division (8th CAA, SMD).
Besides, we moved the mobilised 99th Motor Regiment in the Kherson direction after its elements were observed near Kamyanka-Dniprovska.
Kharkiv Oblast Direction
No significant changes occurred in the Kharkiv Oblast.
According to Oleh Synehubov, the head of the Kharkiv Oblast administration, Russians continued to shell civilian infrastructure in the Kharkivsky, Bohodukhivsky, Kupyansky, Izuimsky and Chuhuivsky districts. In particular, Russians hit Hatyshche, Bochkove, Budarky, Dvorichna, Synkivka, Liptsi, Volokhivka, Odnorobivka, Vovchansk, Nechvolodivka and Kupyansk.
On Tuesday (12MAR), a Russian precision-guided bomb (Ukrainians called it a 'guided bomb') was dropped on Kupyansk, damaging residential areas.
Luhansk Oblast Direction
Last week did not deliver any significant changes in the Luhansk Oblast. Russians continued assaults on Ukrainian positions in the Kupyansk and Lyman axes but made no confirmed gains.
Conflicting reports about the situation near Synivka appeared during the weekend. On Saturday and Sunday (09-10MAR), a Russian journalist claimed that Russian troops led nowhere. However, another source said that Russian units expanded the zone of control near Synkivka while battles continued near Tabaivka. On the other hand, a Ukrainian soldier stated on Monday (11MAR) that Ukrainian forces "completely stopped" Russians in the Kupyansk sector. This assessment was partly shared by the Russian journalist who acknowledged that despite having the initiative, Russians could not even achieve tactical success.
On Tuesday (12MAR), the Russian source asserted that the Russian troops continued to attack near Synkivka, but no changes occurred on the line of contact. On Wednesday (13MAR), the Russian source stated that Russian troops continued to attack near Synkivka but were unsuccessful. The Ukrainian blogger also claimed that on Wednesday (13MAR), the Russians tried to attack near Synkivka and Petropavlivka but were also unsuccessful.
No changes occurred near Dvorichna. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian sources reported changes/attacks.
No changes occurred near Krohmalne and Ivanivka. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian sources reported changes.
No changes occurred near Svatove. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian sources reported changes during the week.
No changes occurred near Novoselivske. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian sources reported changes.
No changes occurred near Stelmakhivka. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian sources reported changes.
No changes occurred near Novovodyane. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian sources reported changes.
No changes occurred near Raihorodka. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian sources reported changes/attacks.
On Saturday and Sunday (09-10MAR), the positional battles continued near Terny and Yampolivka. On Sunday, geolocated footage was published indicating that Russian forces advanced east of Terny. This would place Russian units some 1.9km from the village. A Russian source added that the Ukrainians continue to maintain control over the village, refuting recent reports of the Russian forces entering it. However, the source said that the Russian success in the Torske area would make it possible to launch an offensive simultaneously on Terny and Yampolivka in the future to dislodge Ukrainians from the right bank of the Zherebets River.
On Tuesday (12MAR), the Russian source stated that Russian troops had advanced 200 meters in a forest area east of Yampolivka. The source added that Russian troops aim to cut the Ukrainian supply route along Torske-Makiivka.
On the other hand, a Ukrainian soldier said that Ukrainian troops repelled a Russian attack and destroyed one tank. A soldier also reported that Russians shot at their soldiers who were standing not far from the Ukrainian positions. They were forbidden to withdraw until they had completed the task.
On Wednesday (13MAR), the Russian journalist asserted that Russians continued to attack near Terny and Yampolivka. Ukrainian blogger claimed that the Russians were making significant efforts to advance towards these villages on Wednesday. The source noted that Russians advanced east of Terny, but no detailed information was provided.
No changes occurred near Makiivka, Ploshchanka and Chervonopopivka. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian sources reported changes/attacks. Also, no changes occurred near Torske and Nevske.
In the Kreminna area, no significant changes occurred. Positional battles continued in the Serebryasnky foresty and near Dibrova. On Sunday (10MAR), the Russian source claimed that IVO Serebryansky forest, Russian assault units advanced up to 200 metres. Ukrainian sources did not report changes in this area. On Wednesday (13MAR), a Ukrainian soldier assessed that during the nine months of active hostilities, the Russian command had rendered one of their armies almost wholly incapacitated. It is being reinforced with freshly mobilised forces from another army group to break through to Terny and Yampolivka.
In the meantime, the Russian source noted that the UAF was setting up new fortifications near Slovyansk.
Positional battles continued near the settlement near Bilohorivka, but neither Russian nor Ukrainian sources reported significant changes.
According to Sergey Zybinskyi, a Russian Western Group of Forces Spokesperson, during combat actions in the Kupyansk axis, Russian units repelled 13 Ukrainian attacks near Synkivka, Terny and Yampolivka.
According to Leonid Sharov, a Russian Centre Group of Forces Spokesperson, in Lyman's direction, Russian units of the Centre Group of Forces, supported by air and artillery fire, repelled eight Ukrainian attacks near Terny, Yampolivka, Tonenke, Pervomaiske and Orlivka.
(The data on Russian fortifications comes from Black Bird Group/DefMon)
Donetsk Oblast Direction
Over the past week, the Russians continued attacks near the Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Novopavlivka axes. They achieved partial success in some areas but made no significant gains.
On Wednesday (13MAR), Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that the operational situation on the Eastern Front remained difficult. The Russians continue to conduct offensive operations, focusing their primary efforts on Terny, Ivanivske, Berdychi, Tonenke, Verbove, and Robotyne. At the same time, presumably due to the high level of losses, Russian activity in other parts of the frontline had significantly decreased. Syrskyi noted that during two weeks of heavy fighting, the Russians suffered extremely high losses.
On Sunday (10MAR), the Russian source stated that Russian forces advanced 200 meters towards Vyimka. The Ukrainian sources did not report changes/attacks.
No changes occurred near Spirne, Ivano-Darivka, Vyimka and Verkhnokamyanske. The same goes for Vesele, Rozdolivka and Vasiukivka. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian sources reported changes.
On Saturday and Sunday (09-10MAR), the positional battles continued near Ivanivkse and Bohdanivka. The Russian source claimed that Russian troops continued to try to dislodge the Ukrainian units from the western part of the former but to no avail. They also continued to attack Ukrainian positions near Bohdanivka, but the UAF held the ground. A Ukrainian soldier said on Saturday (09MAR) that 80 per cent of Ivanivske was under Russian control.
Last week (5MAR), Ukrainian sources claimed that Ukrainian troops advanced on one of the positions near Bohdanivka, but no visual evidence was provided to support this claim. However, on Sunday (10MAR), geolocated footage showed that Ukrainian units from the 93rd Separated Brigade indeed advanced in a field north of Bohdanivka on 05 March.
Also, on Monday (11MAR), a Ukrainian soldier stated that in Bohdanivka, Ukrainian troops advanced and were able to consolidate their positions in the settlement. On Tuesday (12MAR), the Russian source claimed that battles occurred in Ivanivske, where the Ukrainian units continued to hold their positions in the western part. Another Russian source said that Russian troops control approximately 60 per cent of Ivanivske (while a Ukrainian soldier claimed on Saturday (10MAR) that 80 per cent of Ivanivske was under Russian control).
On Wednesday (13MAR), the Russian journalist claimed that the heavy battles continued in Ivanivkse and that Ukrainians held their positions.
The Ukrainian soldier stated on Thursday (14MAR) that the approaches to Chasiv Yar were ready for defence, but the Russians were constantly hitting the town with KABs to soften Ukrainian defences.
On Saturday and Sunday (09-10MAR), the positional battles continued near Klishchiivka. On Tuesday (12MAR), the Russian source asserted that Russian units achieved some tactical successes near Klishchiivka. Indeed, geolocated footage was published showing Russian forces advancing north of the settlement. On Wednesday (13MAR), the Russian source claimed that the Russian troops steadily attacked Ukrainian positions near Klishchiivka and managed to dislodge defending units from occupied positions south of the railway station. The Russians also managed to advance west and east of the station. The source added that the Ukrainians went into defence and did not counterattack in this area.
No changes occurred near Andriivka and Kurdyumivka. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian sources reported changes.
On Saturday and Sunday (09-10MAR), the heavy battles continued near Berdychi, Tonenke and Orlivka. Geolocated footage was published on Saturday and Sunday, indicating that Russian forces recently advanced south of Berdychi and in western Orlivka. The Russian source claimed that on Sunday (10MAR), the Ukrainian forces pulled up reserves and tried to counterattack from the western outskirts of Tonenke but were unsuccessful. Most of Orlivka was under Russian control. The UAF maintained a presence on the western outskirts and attempted to launch counterattacks to regain previously lost positions in the settlement.
In Berdychi, the Russian forces were repelling Ukrainian counterattacks on the eastern outskirts of the settlement. The Ukrainian 47th Separate Mechanised Brigade continued to hold most of the village and lost western equipment in these battles.
The Ukrainian soldier said on Sunday (10MAR) that the Russians were afraid to use heavy equipment in the Avdiivka axis due to the constant Ukrainian employment of FPV drones and anti-tank capabilities.
On Monday (11MAR), the Russian source asserted that the Ukrainian forces were still holding small parts of Orlivka and Tonenke, even under heavy fire by artillery, KABs, and FPVs.
In Orlivka, Russian forces had advanced along Mira Street to a depth of up to 280 metres. On the other hand, another Russian source claimed that the Russian offensive on the Berdychi – Orlivka – Tonenke line was slowing. The source said that Russian forces faced challenges because of inadequate staff management, insufficient training among commanders, organisational deficiencies, and a lack of coordination and communication among various units.
On Tuesday (12MAR), the Russian source said that the Ukrainians had managed to stabilise the situation on the frontline near Avdiivka after the transfer of reinforcements. Battles continued near Berdychi, with no changes in Orlivka and Tonenke.
A Ukrainian soldier claimed that on Tuesday (12MAR), with the help of 60 FPV drones, a significant Russian assault was repelled near Tonenke. On Wednesday (13MAR), the Russian source stated that the Ukrainians continued to put heavy resistance along Berdychi – Orlivka – Tonenke. The source said that Berdychi was still controlled mainly by the UAF, although Russian troops maintained a presence in the southwestern part of the village. Control over Berdychi allows the Ukrainians to buy time to strengthen the defences west of the Berdychi – Orlivka -Tonenke line and prevent the development of an offensive towards Ocheretyne.
In Orlivka, the Russian forces have slightly expanded their zone of control in the western part, but the UAF continued to defend on the outskirts of the settlement. In Tonenke, the Russian forces expanded the zone of control in the village and cleared part of the UAF positions between Tonenke and Orlivka. However, the UAF was still in Tonenke. The Ukrainian blogger asserted that on Wednesday (14MAR), the Russians intensified their efforts and increased pressure on Berdychi, Orlivka and Tonenke. Heavy battles continued in Berdychi and Orlivka, where Russians deployed fresh forces to sustain the intensity of attacks.
On Saturday and Sunday (09-10MAR), the positional battles continued near Pervomaiske, Sjeverne and Nevelske.
The Russian source said on Sunday that heavy battles continued for the centre of Pervomaiske. On Monday (11MAR), the Ukrainian blogger claimed that the Russians advanced near Nevelske, too. On the other hand, a Russian MoD stated that Russian troops had already captured the village, but this claim was not independently verified. Ukrainian sources, both official and unofficial, did not confirm it either.
Although geolocated footage was published on Monday showing that Russian forces had only advanced east of Nevelske, Ukrainian sources acknowledged that the overall situation was worsening.
On Tuesday (12MAR), the battles also continued near Pervomaiske. Geolocated footage published on Tuesday (12MAR) showed Russian units advancing east of the settlement. Also, the Russian source said that on Tuesday (12MAR), the Russian forces controlled about a third of the settlement, and there were reports of Russian troops reaching the crossroads between Pervomaiske and Vodyane. On Wednesday (13MAR), the Ukrainian source asserted that the situation continued deteriorating near Nevelske, but the village was still under Ukrainian control. The Russian source also said that battles continued near Nevelske. The source explained that there are only fields behind the settlement to Karlivka, so the UAF would not leave Nevelske so quickly.
On Saturday and Sunday (09-10MAR), positional battles continued near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka and Pobjeda. On Sunday (10MAR), the Russian source stated that battles continued in Novomykhailivka.
On Monday (11MAR), geolocated footage showed that Russian forces recently advanced north of Heorhiivka, Pobjeda (source, 47.92865, 37.4555) and Novomykhailivka (source, 47.86835,37.50407). On Wednesday (13MAR), the Russian source claimed that the heavy battles continued near Novomykhailivka and Pobjeda. The Russian troops continued to attack Novomykhailivka from the south but with slow progress in the north due to difficult terrain. The Ukrainian blogger said that the Russians conducted a series of massive attacks near Heorhiivka and in the village itself, as well as in Novomykhailivka and made progress in advancing.
In the Vuhledar area, on Sunday (10MAR), geolocated footage was published indicating that Russian forces recently advanced northwest of Shevchenko. On Wednesday (12MAR), Ukrainian sources stated that Russian troops tried to attack Ukrainian positions near Shevchenko.
Southern Ukraine direction
Russian troops became more active in the Velyka Novosilka axis. However, this increased activity did not translate into any tactical gains. In the Orikhiv axis, the Russians continued to pressure Ukrainians near Robotyne and Verbove, but they also made little progress there.
No changes occurred near Zolota Nyva. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian sources reported changes.
On Wednesday (13MAR), the Ukrainian source claimed that Russian troops tried to improve their tactical situation near Novodonetske.
Neither Russian nor Ukrainian sources reported changes near Novomaiorske.
Neither Russian nor Ukrainian sources reported changes near Staromaiorkse and Urozhaine.
Neither Russian nor Ukrainian sources reported changes near Novodarivka.
On Wednesday (13MAR), the Ukrainian source claimed that Russian troops tried to improve their tactical situation near Pryuutne.
Neither Russian nor Ukrainian sources reported change near Levadne.
On Tuesday (12MAR), Dmytro Lykhovyi, Ukrainian Tavria (Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts) Group of Forces Spokesperson, claimed that Ukrainian troops continued to rotate in the Tavria sector. Lykhovyi claimed that the Ukrainian brigades that had been on the front line for a long time, taking part in the difficult operations, first offensive last year and now defensive, could recover one by one. He added that the operational situation dictates the tempo of the rotation. This probably indicates that individual units or subunits were being rotated and that no large-scale rotation was ongoing.
On the other hand, he stated that the Russians began attacking more actively in the Velyka Novosilka axis. He said that Russians concentrated their efforts in the Donetsk - Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area, focusing on Urozhaine and Staromaiorske. He believes the Russians need to show some results before the elections in the Russian Federation.
According to a Russian source, on Sunday (10MAR), the Russian forces managed to capture several Ukrainian positions between Robotyne and Verbove. Heavy battles also continued in Robotyne. A Ukrainian soldier confirmed on Saturday (09MAR) that the Russians managed to get into the ruins in the south of Robotyne. However, another Ukrainian soldier later said that the Ukrainian forces managed to push back the Russians from several positions south of the village. Also, a different Russian source stated on Sunday (10MAR) that in Robotyne, the advance of Russian units slowed down due to the slow pace of Russian demining activities and Ukrainian drone attacks.
On Monday (11MAR), the Russian source claimed that the heavy battles continued near Robotyne. The source said there was still no sign of the Russian forces advancing in the village. However, there were small advances northwest of Robotyne, where the Russian troops captured several Ukrainian positions. On Tuesday (11MAR), the Russian source asserted that the Ukrainian forces tried to counterattack northwest of Verbove to regain recently lost positions but were unsuccessful.
Dmytro Lykhoviy claimed on Tuesday (12MAR) that the Russians continue to pressure Robotyne, but the intensity of attacks decreased recently. On Wednesday (13MAR), the Russian source stated that the battles continued between Robotyne and Verbove. Between these settlements, Russian troops were attacking, trying to capture Ukrainian positions. The Ukrainian armed forces periodically counterattack. The UAF was pulling up reserves to the Zaporizhzhia axis, trying to dislodge the Russian forces from the positions occupied in the village, but was unsuccessful.
On Thursday (14MAR), Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi claimed that the operational situation in Zaporizhzhia direction was under Ukrainian control. Russians continued to attack Ukrainian positions near Robotyne and Verbove but without significant success. He added that the extensive use of drones of all types in combination with artillery and mortar fire characterised the hostilities. Under such circumstances, strike drones gradually became the primary attack weapon of ground units in combat. Syrskyi asserted that in these conditions, only modern and powerful electronic warfare equipment, whose role and importance were constantly growing, could provide reliable protection for Ukrainian servicemen. He also stated that on the positive side, despite the rather difficult situation along the entire frontline, the UAF had managed to launch the rotation and replacement of units and subunits that had been performing combat missions on the frontline for a long time.
Neither Russian nor Ukrainian sources reported changes near Kamyanske.
Neither Russian nor Ukrainian sources reported changes near Kopani.
Neither Russian nor Ukrainian sources reported changes near Novofedorivka.
Neither Russian nor Ukrainian sources reported changes near Pyatykhatky.
On Saturday (09MAR), Dmytro Lykhovyi, Ukrainian Tavria (Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts) Group of Forces Spokesperson, said that Russian troops were increasingly turning to off-road ATVs and buggies to move their infantry near Robotyne. This action comes as Ukrainian forces continued to target and destroy conventional Russian military vehicles. He added that the number of damaged Russian vehicles - ATVs, buggies - had already reached dozens.
On Monday (11MAR), Dmytro Lykhovyi said that in the Zaporizhzhia axis, Ukrainian servicemen destroyed a rare Russian electronic warfare system, "Palantyn-K". He also added that earlier in the operational area of the Tavria air defence system, the R330-Zh Zhytel and RB-341V Leer-3 radar stations were also hit.
Kherson Direction and Crimea
No significant changes occurred in the Kherson Oblast. Ukrainian forces continue to hold a bridgehead on Dnipro's left bank despite Russian counterattacks.
On Saturday and Sunday (09-10MAR), positional battles continued near Krynky.
On Sunday (10MAR), the OC South claimed that, for the second day in a row (08-09MAR), the Russians had not conducted any assault operations, instead focusing on aerial reconnaissance, artillery shelling, and the use of a large number of attack drones of various types. Last week (06MAR), a Ukrainian soldier also reported a lull in Russian offensive operations in the region.
On Monday (11MAR), the positional battles continued near Krynky in the Kherson Oblast. Neither Russia nor Ukrainian sources reported significant changes. Vladimir Saldo, Kherson Oblast occupation administration head, stated on Monday (11MAR) that only scattered groups totalling 20-30 soldiers remained in Krynky.
On Tuesday (12MAR), Natalia Humeniuk, the spokesperson for the Ukrainian Command South, stated that Russian troops were continuing to try to drive the Ukrainian forces from the bridgehead near Krynky. She added that the Russians continued to attack without the support of armoured vehicles. Humenyuk also noted that Ukrainian forces, during Russian attacks, had observed elite Russian airborne assault units, coastguards, marines, ordinary "Z" assaults, i.e. completely "meaty" assaults, and also recently assembled, actually mobilised and tested at one training ground, so-called "freshman". However, she stressed that the successful use of drones by the Ukrainian side resulted in the Ukrainian forces being able to hold their positions.
On Wednesday (13MAR), Vladimir Saldo claimed that the combined Russian assault group of the Dnepr group of troops conducted a raid on the right bank of the Dnipro River. Saldo said that Russian marines, paratroopers and volunteers disembarked from boats near Antonovsky Bridge. Russian soldiers destroyed several Ukrainian positions, including a UAV control centre and an electronic warfare station, observation and communication points and temporary concentrations of manpower. Total Ukrainian losses were up to 30 men, he added. Saldo stated that Russian fighters managed to withdraw to the left bank without irrecoverable losses. The Russian source noted that elements of the Russian 45th Guards Spetsnaz (Special Purpose) Detached Brigade participated in the raid.
Summary of losses
According to the Russian Ministry of Defence, since the start of the war, Ukraine has lost 577 aircraft (0), 269 helicopters (+2), 15,573 UAVs (+718), 486 anti-aircraft missile systems (launchers?)(+2), 15,496 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles (+87), 1,238 MLRS launchers (+3), 8,406 field artillery guns and mortars (+74), as well as 19,764 units of special military vehicles (+215).
According to the Ukrainian General Staff, Russia lost (eliminated) 428,420 personnel (+5,260), 6,758 tanks (+46), 12,949 armoured combat vehicles (+126), 10,580 artillery systems (+152) and 1,017 MLR systems (+5), 717 anti-aircraft systems (+10), 347 aircraft (0) and 325 helicopters (0), and 8,254 UAVs (+213), 1,920 cruise missiles (+1), 26 warships and boats (0), submarines 1 (0), 13,993 vehicles and fuel tanks (+355), and 1,711 special vehicles (+45).
(Numbers in parentheses denote a weekly change)
Russian strikes and attacks in Ukraine
The tempo of Russian attacks decreased across all metrics last week.
There were no mass missile strikes in Ukraine last week
Russians launched Shahed 131/136 kamikaze drone attacks three times. The first attack occurred on Saturday (09MAR) and involved 15 vehicles, of which 12 were shot down. A day later (10MAR), Russians launched 39 Shaheds. Ukrainians claimed to have intercepted 35. On Friday, Russians launched 27 UAVs, all of which were reportedly intercepted.
The interception rate for the first two attacks was 80% and 89%, respectively.
Ground attacks slightly decreased. On average, Russians launched around 80 per day, compared to 90 in early February. Although, looking at the larger timeframe of the past three months, the number of attacks is high, it is possible that Russians are reorganising and regrouping following the capture of Avdiivka.
Missile attacks slightly increased, but the moving average continued to hoover at around five strikes per day on average. Again, looking at a larger timeframe, the overall intensity of attacks remained high.
After a short decrease in air strikes that was reported in late Feb/early March, Russian attacks again started rising. On Friday, Ukrainians reported 130 air strikes, the second-largest number since we started tracking this data in March 2023.
Lastly, MLRS strikes saw the first major decline since early January, although there were days with significant spikes. Despite this, Russians, on average, still conduct some 115 MLRS attacks per day, which by all means is significant.
Outlook for the week of 16MAR024 – 22MAR2024
In assessing the probability or likelihood of certain events, we use a set of terms proposed by the US Intelligence Community.
To introduce more accountability to our forecasts, each weekly update assesses how correct (or incorrect) our predictions were. Please also remember that while we try to remain as objective as possible regarding our performance, the reader will ultimately have to decide how (in)accurate we have been.
Previous forecast
“Regarding the Kharkiv Oblast Direction, we continue to expect no frontline changes. There is a small possibility that Russians will conduct cross-border raids, but they will certainly continue (no change) conducting artillery attacks on civilian areas across the region. Russian cross-border infiltration operations are also certain to continue (no change).” This assessment was correct.
Score: 1/1
“When it comes to the Luhansk Oblast Direction, we maintain that Russian ground attacks in the Kupyansk and Lyman axes are highly likely (no change) to continue. It is unlikely (no change) that they will capture one village or more. We continue to expect no Ukrainian gains in the region.” This prognosis was also correct. Russians made no gains in the region last week.
Score: 1/1
“When it comes to the Donetsk Oblast, we are still assessing that the probability of Ukrainian gains is remote (no change). We maintain that Russians are highly likely to capture some terrain (no change) in the Mariinka, Avdiivka and Bakhmut axes. It is highly likely (increase in probability) that Russians will continue attacking west from the Avdiivka, and there is a roughly even chance (new item) that they will capture one village or more.” We were correct in predicting continuous Russian attacks in these three areas. However, Russians made no independently verified and visually confirmed gains in the region.
Score: 0.5/1
“Moving onto the Southern Direction, we currently assess that chances are remote (no change) that Ukrainians will make any gains in the region. We assess that Russians are likely (no change) to progress in the region (capture some terrain). Still, we assess they are unlikely to capture a village or more (no change).” Russians made minor advances near Robotyne. No further gains were reported.
Score: 1/1
“In the Kherson Oblast, we assess that Ukrainians are likely (increase in probability) to sustain a ground presence on Dnipro’s left bank. On the other hand, Russians are highly likely (no change) to sustain pressure on the Ukrainian bridgehead but are unlikely (decrease in probability) to eliminate it completely.” This assessment was correct.
Score: 1/1
Final Score: 4.5/5 (90%)
The forecast for the week of 16MAR024 – 22MAR2024
In parenthesis, we indicate a probability change compared to the previous assessment.
We are not assessing the likelihood of Ukrainian forces’ incursions into Russia as it is beyond OSINT.
Regarding the Kharkiv Oblast Direction, we continue to expect no frontline changes. There is a small possibility that Russians will conduct cross-border raids, but they will certainly continue (no change) conducting artillery attacks on civilian areas across the region. Russian cross-border infiltration operations are also certain to continue (no change).
When it comes to the Luhansk Oblast Direction, we maintain that Russian ground attacks in the Kupyansk and Lyman axes are highly likely (no change) to continue. It is unlikely (no change) that they will capture one village or more. We continue to expect no Ukrainian gains in the region.
When it comes to the Donetsk Oblast, we are still assessing that the probability of Ukrainian gains is remote (no change). We maintain that Russians are highly likely to capture some terrain (no change) in the Mariinka, Avdiivka and Bakhmut axes. It is highly likely (no change) that Russians will continue attacking west from the Avdiivka, and there is a roughly even chance (no change)that they will capture one village or more.
Moving onto the Southern Direction, we currently assess that chances are remote (no change) that Ukrainians will make any gains in the region. We assess that Russians are likely (no change) to progress in the region (capture some terrain). Still, we assess they are unlikely to capture a village or more (no change).
In the Kherson Oblast, we assess that Ukrainians are likely (no change) to sustain a ground presence on Dnipro’s left bank. On the other hand, Russians are highly likely (no change) to sustain pressure on the Ukrainian bridgehead but are unlikely (no change) to eliminate it completely.