Ukraine Conflict Monitor - 28 February 2023 (Daily update)
Situational report 28FEB2023
Key takeaways:
On Tuesday, Russians’ probable gains were limited to areas north of Bakhmut and Vodyane and Pervomaiske;
The situation in the Kharkiv Oblast remained unchanged;
Likewise, no changes were reported in the Luhansk Oblast; Russian attacks may have decreased, confirming the exhaustion of an offensive potential;
Russians may have inched closer towards the main route linking Bakhmut with Konstantynivka. The road, however, is not under direct fire;
They also reportedly moved a bit closer towards the city centre;
No changes occurred in the Zaporizhihia and Kherson Oblasts;
The posture of the Belarusian Armed Forces did not change;
General outlook
On Tuesday, the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) repelled 85 Russian ground attacks.
Russians launched two missile and 12 air strikes. Fired 68 rounds from MLRS. They also carried artillery strikes on towns and villages near the state border. Specifically, they shelled Tymonovichi and Berylivka of the Chernihiv Oblast. Starykove, Brusky, Buvalyne, Kruzhok, Manukhivka, Atynske, Porozok in the Sumy Oblast and Chervona Zorya, Veterinarne, Strelecha, Hatyshche, Vovchansk, Vovchanski Khutory in the Kharkiv Oblast.
Regarding battlefield strikes, on Tuesday, Russian artillery struck Dvorichna, Lyman Pershiy, Hryanikyvka, Kurylivka, Kislivka, Tabaivka settlements of the Kharkiv Oblast and Novoselivske, Nevske, Chervopopivka, Dibrova in Luhansk oblast. In the Donetsk Oblast, Russians shelled Spirne, Rozdolivka, Zaliznyanske, Dubovo-Vasylivka, Berkhivka, Bakhmut, Ivanovske, Stupochki, Kostyantynivka, Klishchiivka and Zalizne, Ozaryanivka, Mayorsk, Pivdenne, Niu York, Avdiivka, Lastochkine, Netaylove, Vodyane, Pervomaiske as well as Krasnohorivka, Nevelske, Mariinka, Bogoyavlenka, Novomykhailivka, Velyka Novosilka, Neskuchne, Vugledar, Vremivka, Novopil. In the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, they hit Komyshuvakha, Olhivske, Malynivka, Gulyaipole, Zaliznychne, Charivne, Orihiv and Novoandriivka. And in the Kherson Oblast, Russians fired at Havrylivka, Kachkarivka, Vesele, Tyaginka, Inzhenerne, Antonivka, Berehove and the city of Kherson.
During the day, units of the Defence Forces shot down 12 Iranian “Shaheed-136” type UAVs. Ukrainian aircraft hit 11 Russian concentration areas, while missile and artillery forces hit one control point, nine concentration areas and two air defence sites.
The situation at selected axes and directions
Kharkiv/Luhansk direction
No major events occurred in the Kharkiv Oblast on Tuesday. No ground attacks were recorded near the border with Russia, while battles continued near Hryanykivka and Masiutivka, but frontline changes were noted. According to Oleh Synehubov, the head of the Kharkiv Oblast, Russians continue to shell border settlements of the Kharkivsky, Chuhuivsky and Kupyansky districts. On Tuesday, they hit Kupyansk and Vovchanski Khutory, damaging civil infrastructure.
Likewise, no changes were reported in the Luhansk Oblast. A Ukrainian source claimed that battles were ongoing near Chervonopopivka and the Serebryansky forest near Kreminna. Yet, Russians did not achieve any breakthroughs in these areas. On the other hand, a Russian source claimed that the initiative in the oblast still belonged to the Russian troops. However, no progress has been made towards achieving the tactical obejctives.
According to Serhiy Haidai, the Luhansk Regional Military Civil Administration Head, Russian troops constantly exert pressure on Ukrainian defensive lines. Kreminna remains the main axis of their attacks. On Tuesday, Russians also tried to attack with heavy equipment near Kuzemivka and Novoselivske in the Svatove district. These assaults were unsuccessful. Haidai stated that with positive temperatures, Russian superiority in equipment numbers would not prove decisive due to muddy terrain. On the other hand, Russian troop concentration areas can be subjected to Ukrainian artillery strikes.
According to Ukrainian sources, no significant changes took place near Novoselivske and Kuzemivka. However, the Russian source stated heavy battles were taking place near Novoselivske with the primary goal of controlling the H-26 highway.
The same source added that Russian troops continued to conduct offensive operations towards Yampolivka, Terny, Nevske and Makiivka. Yet, no frontline changes near these settlements were recorded.
Fighting in the Serebryansky forest also continued, but the pace of Russian advances visibly decreased. Likewise, despite attacking Ukrainian positions in Bilohorivka, Ukrainian positions remained unchanged.
Donetsk Oblast Direction
Russians probably moved closer to closing Bakhmut off, while attacks in other parts of the Donetsk Oblast delivered minimal territorial changes.
On Tuesday, Russians attempted an attack towards Spirne but were pushed back. No assaults were recorded in the Verkhnokamyanske direction.
Similarly, no changes took place near Fedorivka, Rozdolivka and Vesele. Also, no Russian progress was made near Zaliznyanske and Orikhovo-Vasylivka. As stated previously, the Russian focus is on areas north of Bakhmut, and all other efforts are subjugated to the objective of cutting off the last logistical route through Khromove.
Indeed, Russians probably expanded the “wedge” between Berkhivka and Yahidne, further worsening the situation for the Ukrainian garrison in Bakhmut.
According to Ukrainian bloggers, battles might already be taking place near this road. However, our understanding it that the road is still passable and under Russian artillery fire. No direct fire on the road was ongoing as of Wednesday morning.
The Russian source stated that Russian troops were attacking towards Bohdanivka to create an encirclement threat. According to another unofficial Ukrainian source, the UAF did not possess enough weapons for an offensive in the area, including mines and hand grenade launchers. The Russian source added that PMC Wagner fighters succeeded in advancing on the city’s eastern flanks. A Ukrainian blogger confirmed that Russians made progress near Meat Plant and on the south near Car Service Station.
A Ukrainian soldier in Bakhmut said that the city is heavily shelled daily, adding that the situation there was not entirely critical but close to it. The southern and eastern parts of the town were under control.
In response to these developments, Kostyantyn Mashovets, a Ukrainian military observer, suggested that Ukrainian troops would have to withdraw from this city. This is in line with our assessment.
No changes were reported near Ivanivske, where the situation remained under Ukrainian control. All Russian attacks were pushed back.
No frontline changes were recorded near Novobakhmutivka, Krasnohorivka and Vesele. Russians tried to attack towards Khasnohorivka but were unsuccessful.
In Avdiivka, the Ukrainian troops repelled a Russian assault attempt. Nevertheless, Russian artillery continued to fire on the city.
Battles also continued near Nevelske, but the results of Tuesday’s attacks were unknown. However, according to Ukrainian bloggers, Russians managed to advance between Vodyane and Pervomaiske.
No frontline changes were reported near Mariinka and Pobieda. The Russian source asserted that Russian troops had managed to push through the UAF defence southeast of Pobeda and advanced towards the city limits of Mariinka.
Lastly, positional battles occurred near Mykilski Dachi, confirming Russians were pushed back from Vuhledar. Russian artillery hit Vremivka, and Ukrainian troops respond by hitting Pavlivka.
Zaporizhzhia direction
No changes were reported in this direction on Tuesday.
Kherson direction
No changes were reported in this direction on Tuesday.
Military situation in Belarus
On 28FEB, Belarusian President departed for China to participate in bilateral talks with the Chinese leadership. After a few hours, he arrived in Beijing, where an official delegation officially welcomed him. Currently, no details linked to the talks have been published. Nonetheless, Lukashenko attracted some attention with his relatively informal dress code.
The Belarusian Minister of Defence, Lt. Gen. Viktor Khrenin, met with the teaching staff of the Belarusian Military Academy. According to an official statement, Khrenin briefed officers about the current military-political around the state.
On Tuesday, the Belarusian MoD informed about the upcoming (1MAR) working meeting of the CSTO bodies responsible for the affairs of international military cooperation. The gathering will take place in Minsk and seek to exchange views on the current military cooperation issues and possible ways of strengthening cooperation in the area.
The Minsk Regional Executive started its annual exercise on forming the Territorial Defence Troops. The drills were planned as a part of the Belarusian Armed Forces Training Plan for 2023 and will last to 3MAR. They will include theoretical and practical events of local state bodies and military commissariats, which will receive mobilisation resources and check the condition of the stored military equipment and resources. Officially, classes will also involve service members of the Territorial Defence Troops.
On 28FEB, about 100 servicemen of the 38th Air Assault Brigade carried out parachute jumps over the Brestsky Training Ground. Jumps were made from a height of 600 meters and involved at least one Belarusian IL-76MD aircraft. Some Mi-8MTV helicopters also took part in the drill.
Unspecified UAV subunits probably conducted training flights using Superkam-100 and Superkam-350 unmanned aircraft.
Several satellite images of the Machulischy air base were published after the latest reported incident involving Russian A-50 aircraft. Those published by Maxar present some discolouration on the airframe:
The charred area was not visible on the airframe on the 23FEB image.
Referring to the incident, it might be noted that unofficial Belarusian sources claim that the attack was carried out by two modified UAVs able to withstand electronic warfare systems with VOG or RGD grenades. Both took off from Churilovichi village and destroyed a small A-50 antenna and fuselage section.
The Belarusian Hajun military monitoring team noted that on 26FEB, the arrival of two Russian military aircraft (IL-76: RF-86843 and An-26) likely connected to the 610th Center for the Combat Use and Retraining of the Flight Personnel (responsible for the use of A-50 airframes) arrived to Belarus.
27.02.2023 – Movements
On 27FEB, unofficial sources reported five noteworthy transfers of Belarusian military equipment:
Seven MAZ trucks were moving near the Krugloye towards the R2 highway;
About 20 BTR-82A APCs (120th Mechanised Brigade) were moving towards Vishnevka from the area of Varnyany (through Ashmyana and Rakau);
Eight Kamaz trucks were moving from Obuchovo towards Korovo;
A trailer with a T-72 tank was moving in Minsk;
Five unspecified covered trucks were moving in Minsk;
Besides, visible training activity of the Belarusian Air Force was observed. Several training flights, including Mi-2 and Mi-8 helicopters, were observed at Machulischy and Luniniets Air Bases.
Interestingly unofficial sources reported the presence of an unspecified electronic warfare complex with a UAZ and MAZ truck in the vicinity of Sloboda.
The Russian activity also included several ground transfers:
Four fuel trucks were moving in Baranovichi;
Five buses and Kamaz trucks headed to Stolbtsy from Baranovichi;
Seven Gazel vehicles with five Kamaz trucks were moving from Dzyarzhynsk towards Stolbtsy;
Up to 14 Ural trucks with a GAZ-66 were moving towards Dzyarzhynsk from Stolbtsy;
Three Gazel Next vehicles with a UAZ Patriot were moving in Minsk;
Moreover, three more echelons were observed. The first carried at least eight vehicles (including MT-LB and TOR-M2 air defence complex) and headed from Fanipol towards Minsk. The second brought about six trucks and ten SUVs and headed to Kolodischi from Shabany. The third echelon consisted of four trucks, several light vehicles and about nine Konkurs ATGM carriers and moved between Orsha-Vostochnaya and Orsha Railway Stations.
Below is the list of training activities conducted on 28FEB.
28FEB: Start of the annual TDF formation classes (Minsk, local state bodies and military commissariats)
28FEB: IL-76MD Parachute jumps (Brestsky Training Ground, about 100 servicemen of the 38th Air Assault Brigade)