Hello,
As some may know, I went to Ukraine last week. I will share some impressions from this trip in the weekly update.
In the meantime, I will continue to post daily updates here until the end of this week. From Monday on, we will go back to weekly updates.
Thanks,
Konrad Muzyka
Situational report 07MAR2023
Key takeaways:
Russians may have made some territorial gains north of Bakhmut; They made no progress in other areas in Ukraine;
No frontline changes occurred in the Kharkiv Oblast;
All Russian attacks in the Luhansk Oblast were repelled; the attackers may have deployed additional artillery assets near Kreminna, but the overall line of contact is stable;
The Ukrainian political-military leadership is committed to the defence of Bakhmut, and it appears presently unlikely that Ukrainians will pull back from the city; One Russian source claimed that Ukrainians were concentrating their forces near Bakhmut;
Russians control around 40 per cent of the city;
There were no frontline changes in other parts of the Donetsk Oblast;
No changes occurred in the Zaporizhihia and Kherson Oblasts;
Belarusian military activity was limited to a military divers class and limited aviation exercises; no changes to the overall posture occurred;
General outlook
On Tuesday, the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) repelled 100 Russian ground attacks.
During the day, Russians launched 24 air strikes and one missile strike. Two of the airstrikes involved a Shahed-136 UAV type, and they were reportedly shot down. Russian artillery units also launched 60 MLRS attacks. They also carried artillery strikes on towns and villages near the state border. Specifically, they shelled Senkivka and Karpovychi in the Chernihiv Oblast and Starikove, Holyshivske, Pavlivka, Volfyne, and Hrabovske in the Sumy Oblast. Huryiv Kozachok, Veterynarne, Kozacha Lopan, Strilecha, Hlyboke, Krasne, Zelene, and Anyskyne in the Kharkiv Oblast were also shelled.
Regarding battlefield strikes, on Tuesday, Russian artillery struck Tabaivka, Krokhmalne, and Dvorichna in the Kharkiv Oblast and Stelmakhivka, Nevske, Chervonopopivka, Dibrova in the Luhansk Oblast. In th Donetsk Oblast Serebryanka, Spirne, Rozdolivka, Fedorivka, Yahidne, Zaliznyanske, Dubovo-Vasylivka, Bohdanivka, Bakhmut, Ivanivske and Stupochky, Dyliivka, Toretsk, Zalizne, Niu York, Berdychi, Avdiivka, Vodyane, Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka as well as Vuhledar, Zolota Nyva, Velyka Novosilka, Vremivka, Neskuchne. In the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, they hit Malynivka, Hulyaipole, Zaliznychne, Mala Tokmachka, Tavriiske, Novodanylivka, Novoandriivka, Stepove, Kamyanske and Nikopol in the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. In the Kherson Oblast, Russians fired at Shlyakhove, Beryslav, Shylova Balka, Tyahynka, Antonivka, Dniprovske, Bilozerka, Stanislav and the city of Kherson.
Ukrainian Air Force launched seven air strikes on Russian concentration areas. At the same time, the missile and artillery units hit one Russian Buk-M1-2 air defence missile system, five concentration areas, three fuel and lubricants storage facilities, and one Zoopark-1 counter-battery radar system.
The situation at selected axes and directions
Kharkiv/Luhansk direction
No significant events took place in the Kharkiv Oblast on Tuesday. No Russian ground attacks near the border were recorded. According to Oleh Synehubov, the head of the Kharkiv Oblast, Russians continued shelling the border settlements in the Kharkivsky, Chuhuivsky and Kupyansky districts, focusing mainly on Kozacha Lopan, Vovchansk and Dvorichna.
No frontline changes were noted by Hryanykivka and Masiutivka. Fighting probably continued in these areas, but its intensity seemed relatively small.
Likewise, Tuesday brought no changes in the overall situation in the Luhansk Oblast. According to Serhiy Haidai, the Luhansk Regional Military Civil Administration Head, the number of attacks towards Bilohorivka and Kreminna has increased recently. He also added that despite this perceived rise in Russian ground activity, some Russian forces pulled back to replenish reserves.
Haidai also claimed that the overall situation is “stable and controlled” in the main areas of the oblast. He added that newly mobilised Russian personnel were demotivated due to poor leadership, command and overall conditions in which they needed to fight.
The frontline did not change.
No Russian attacks towards Stelmakhivka were recorded on Tuesday.
Positional battles continued near Novoselivske and Kuzemivka but without any tactical impact.
Similarly, no changes were recorded near Makiivka, Ploshchanaka and Chervonopopivka, where according to a Ukrainian source, all Russian attempts to alter the frontline were unsuccessful.
No Russian advances were recorded near Kreminna on Tuesday. Fighting continued in the Serebryansky forest. Although Russians have strengthened their artillery presence in the area, the impact on the tactical situation is yet to be felt. A Russian blogger noted that the front near Kreminna became more or less stable but is also a grey zone. Ukrainian forces deploy sabotage and reconnaissance groups to infiltrate the frontline to identify firing points and troop locations and provide targeting data for Ukrainian artillery. Although the blogger did not mention this, Russians perform similar tasks, especially at night. That’s why both sides desperately need thermal cameras to interdict such operations.
All Russian attacks were repelled near Bilohorivka on Tuesday.
Donetsk Oblast Direction
The overall situation in the Donetsk Oblast underwent no significant changes over the past week. Ukrainians continue to defend Bakhmut, and it seems that politically, the Ukrainian leadership is determined to keep parts of Bakhmut under Ukrainian control.
No changes were noted near Spirne and Verkhnokamyanske. Fighting continued, but all Russian attacks were pushed back.
The same pertains to Fasiukivka, Rozdolivka, Fedorivka and Vesele. The Ukrainian source claimed that no Russian advances were recorded in these areas. However, according to Ukrainian bloggers, Russians had slightly progressed on the outskirts of Bohdanivka, where the attackers advanced around 700 meters towards the village. Russians also successfully pushed Ukrainian lines near Dubovo-Vasylivka and the E40 road linking Slovyansk with Bakhmut.
On Tuesday, the Office of the President of Ukraine published a press release saying that Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief, Valery Zaluzhny, and Ground Forces Commander, Oleksandr Syrsky, agreed that Ukraine should continue defending Bakhmut. We are sceptical about whether there is a consensus within the Ukrainian high command about the overall situation in Bakhmut and what to do with the city. But we will expand on this issue in the weekly update.
Indeed, Ukrainian soldiers in the city deny any claims about withdrawal from Bakhmut, despite the situation in the area being very tense and continued supply issues.
According to Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner PMC head, Bakhmut is defended by a group of 12,000 to 20,000 Ukrainian soldiers, who put up fierce resistance. Nevertheless, he added that the group killed around 11,000 Ukrainian soldiers and officers, a number which is probably exaggerated. Prigozhin also complained about continuing problems with the supply of ammunition for his units.
A Russian source asserted on Tuesday that the UAF were concentrating troops around the city, either to disengage and withdraw from Bakhmut or conduct a counterattack to encircle Wagner’s units. A pro-Russian blogger claimed that after destroying the main bridge in Khromove, UAF was forced to use the country roads, which were almost impassable in the current weather (this video claims to show a road leading to Bakhmut).
On Tuesday, the Ukrainian Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) think-tank claimed that Russians controlled around 40 per cent of the city. Concurrently, the organisation stated that the 200th Motor Rifle Brigade of the 14th Army Corps (Northern Fleet) was reconstituted and deployed to the Donetsk region.
Russian attacks near Stupochke and Ivanivske were unsuccessful.
The frontline in other parts of the Donetsk Oblast remained unchanged.
Battles continued near Krasnohorivka. The overall situation near Novobakhmutivka is unclear.
Although no Russian ground attacks were recorded near Avdiivka on Tuesday, Russians nevertheless conducted artillery strikes on the city.
According to the Ukrainian source, fighting continued near Pervomaiske, Vodyane and Nevelske, yet no Russian advances were recorded.
Positional battles raged near the southern and northern outskirts of Mariinka, but the frontline remained unchanged. Russian units also attempted to conduct offensive operations near Pobieda but made no progress.
Russian continued efforts to inch closer to Vuhledar failed. Battles kept on Mykilski Dachi at a safe distance from Vuhledar. Nevertheless, the city is regularly shelled.
Zaporizhzhia direction
The situation in the oblast remained stable. Russian attacks near Kamyanske, Orikhiv and Novodanylivka were repelled on Tuesday.
Kherson direction
The same pertains to the Kherson region. Russians continued to fire artillery on the city of Kherson, damaging civil infrastructure. According to the Russian source, Russian troops shot down two Ukrainian aircraft on Tuesday: Su-24 and Su-25. They were downed in the Kherson and Donetsk Oblasts.
Military situation in Belarus
On 7MAR, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko participated in the official state ceremony for the upcoming Woman’s Day. During the same event, the Head of the Minsk Suvorov School, Col. Andrey Gorbatenko and the North-Western Operational Command’s First Deputy Commander (Chief of Staff), Col. Vadim Shadura, were promoted to the rank of Major General.
Despite the event’s celebratory character, Lukashenko mostly spoke about the recent attack at the Machulischy Air Base (the attack damaged a Russian A-50 airborne early warning and control aircraft). He claimed that the “attempted terrorist attack” was carried out by the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) jointly with Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).
Lukashenko added that the preparations for the attack started about six to eight months ago when the perpetrator (an IT specialist with a Ukrainian and Russian passport) began training in Kyiv. He reportedly entered Belarus from Pskov. During the attack, he used a civilian UAV (bought in the United States), which the Belarusian air defences did not “see” due to its small size. Nevertheless, the damages sustained in this UAV attack were minimal.
Lukashenko stressed that shortly after the attack, he raised hundreds of Belarusian service members to cover the Russo-Belarusian border to prevent the attacker from leaving the country. Indeed, he added that protecting the Belarusian-Ukrainian border is so effective that the perpetrator could only escape via the border with Russia (which appears somewhat leaky) and easy to infiltrate.
The Belarusian leader stressed that more than 20 people who were involved had been detained. He said some of them were even linked to the latest shooting that occurred in Bryansk Oblast, which resulted in several wounded civilians. In this regard, Lukashenko noted that he ordered “the most brutal cleansing throughout the country” to find saboteurs, who reminded him of WWII-era fascist collaborators.
Luhasneko also spent some time talking about the Ukrainian political leadership. After calling Volodymyr Zelensky a “lice”, Lukashenko blamed him for approving the attack on Belarus meant to draw Minsk into the Russo-Ukrainian war. He also reminded that a series of unfriendly actions against Belarus followed earlier Ukrainian attempts to sign a bilateral peace pact with Belarus. Lukashenko pointed out that Belarusian leadership has nerves of steel and would not fulfil the will of its Ukrainian counterparts. (COMMENT: Our sources on the Ukrainian side noted that for months Lukashenko has been trying to reach Zelensky through back channels to improve relations on the political level. One such attempt reportedly involved Turkish President Recep Erdoğan. Nevertheless, currently, there is no communication between Kyiv and Minsk. Thus, we believe Tuesday’s harsh comments on Zelensky stem from Luhansko’s frustration and inability to reach Zelensky).
Lastly, the Belarusian President rewarded the leadership of the Belarusian power agencies for their involvement in the operation against participants of the “Machulischy attack”. The Head of the KDB (KGB), Lt. Gen. Ivan Tertel, was awarded 1st class of the “For the Service to the Motherland” medal. At the same time, the Chairman of the State Border Committee, Lt. Gen. Anatoly Lappo and Minister of the Interior, Ivan Kubrakov, received the same decoration of the 2nd class.
Lukashenko also informed about the successful test of the Belarusian 9M318 missile for the BUK-MB2 air defence complex, which is reportedly “able to neutralise stealth aircraft”.
On Tuesday, the Deputy Chief of the General Staff for Combat Command, Maj. Gen. Valery Gnilozub took part in the farewell ceremony of 500 Belarusian reservists who were called up for military training between 6FEB and 7MAR. Interestingly, within this timeframe and only for the purposes of these drills, 27 pieces of equipment from the national economy were requisitioned. Gnilozub stated that reservists presented a high level of understanding regarding the goals and tasks they faced and showed high professional knowledge and skills.
A similar event occurred in Minsk, where the Military Commissar of Minsk, Col. Alexey Konovalov, bid farewell to reserve officers, ensigns, sergeants and soldiers who restored their skills and acquired new knowledge over three weeks.
On 7MAR, the 38th Air Assault Brigade hosted a joint gathering of military divers.
06.03.2023 – Equipment movements
On 6MAR, unofficial sources reported three noteworthy transfers of Belarusian military equipment:
Three MAZ buses with two UAZ vehicles were moving in Minsk;
A MAZ-537 with a 40V6M tower and two MAZs towing two GAZ-66 trucks were moving from Pinsk towards Mikaschevichy;
Four Ural trucks were moving in Minsk;
The Belarusian aviation activity involved training flights of at least two Mi-24 helicopters (Machulischy Air Base) and a single fighter (Baranovichi Air Base).
Regarding the Russian formations, two flights of MiG-31K supersonic interceptor aircraft and on Mi-8 helicopter flight were reported on Tuesday. All of them were carried out from Machulischy Air Base.
Moreover, several movements were observed on the ground:
A single Gazel vehicle was moving in Minsk;
Four covered Kamaz trucks were moving from Lepel towards Begoml;
Two fuel trucks were moving on the M3 highway near Begoml (direction unspecified);
A single Kamaz truck was heading to Stolbstsy from Baranovichi;
Four Kamaz trucks with a single field kitchen were moving from Gorodeya towards Baranovichi;
A single V-marked Kamaz truck was moving towards Minsk from Dykora;
Three Kamaz trucks with military personnel were moving on the M3 highway near Begoml;
Count me among those who think Ukraine is about to launch a counterattack in the Bakhmut sector to try and cut off one or both advancing Wagner spearheads.
*Might* be why Ukraine has been pulling back relatively quickly along the northern axis. Germans did that a lot 80 years back - slow withdrawal followed by a short, sharp counterattack to restore original lines.
Be interested to read any analysis you have of those captured training manuals that are making the rounds online.
Is Russia reviving the old Soviet practice of having different categories of deployed forces? As in, older equipment and more "expendable" draftees in defense-focused units, middling gear in assault units, and the high quality stuff in elite formations?
I still have the strangest feeling Moscow has to be using the past month's operations to cover for something bigger and more spectacular. But if it hasn't started by April, I'm likely wrong. Hopefully I am.
Ukraine needs more modern kit.