Be very interesting to see how Kofman and Lee spin the same data for US audiences, like they do :P
Are they as insufferable in person as they come across in interviews, or is that just journalists and their editors adding a layer of false authority the inherent uncertainty of war makes scientifically irresponsible?
Questions remain: do we know where all mobilized Russian formations are actually deployed? Is all of Russia's combat power truly accounted for? How active is Russian combat aviation now compared to a few months ago? Is Moscow holding back a cadre of better trained and equipped units?
On Bakhmut - western military science paradigms are hardly more likely to be correct than their Russian counterparts, having never been tested in an actual conflict like this in recent years. This is not 1991 against Iraq.
While it is cruel to have to keep forces defending Bakhmut at such cost, the fact that Russia has chosen to apply its (apparent) main effort here means Ukraine has every reason to hold the line.
It isn't the strategy I would choose, but Russia combat power has to be defeated somewhere, and every inch of land Ukraine cedes will cost blood to retake - unless Russia's army is so battered it collapses everywhere.
Over the past few days it appears UKR forces mounted at least one partially successful counteroffensive south of Chasiv Yar that appears to be pushing Russian forces away from the H-32. Attacks on the Wagner flank west of the M-03 appear to have occurred, but no indications of territorial control except Ukraine reporting an attack repelled at Paraskoviivka a couple days ago.
I'd say there is a decent chance that Ukraine is letting Wagner over-extend itself ahead of a local-level counteroffensive utilizing several brigades.
The biggest question - are Ukraine's partners truly running out of gear to transfer? If that is the case, then Russia's attrition strategy in Ukraine starts to look a bit smarter. Especially as American politicians are now sending dangerous signals of disengagement ahead of the next election.
To those European politicians who think an EU defense force isn't necessary, think again. Trusting America is always a bad bet.
Be very interesting to see how Kofman and Lee spin the same data for US audiences, like they do :P
Are they as insufferable in person as they come across in interviews, or is that just journalists and their editors adding a layer of false authority the inherent uncertainty of war makes scientifically irresponsible?
Questions remain: do we know where all mobilized Russian formations are actually deployed? Is all of Russia's combat power truly accounted for? How active is Russian combat aviation now compared to a few months ago? Is Moscow holding back a cadre of better trained and equipped units?
On Bakhmut - western military science paradigms are hardly more likely to be correct than their Russian counterparts, having never been tested in an actual conflict like this in recent years. This is not 1991 against Iraq.
While it is cruel to have to keep forces defending Bakhmut at such cost, the fact that Russia has chosen to apply its (apparent) main effort here means Ukraine has every reason to hold the line.
It isn't the strategy I would choose, but Russia combat power has to be defeated somewhere, and every inch of land Ukraine cedes will cost blood to retake - unless Russia's army is so battered it collapses everywhere.
Over the past few days it appears UKR forces mounted at least one partially successful counteroffensive south of Chasiv Yar that appears to be pushing Russian forces away from the H-32. Attacks on the Wagner flank west of the M-03 appear to have occurred, but no indications of territorial control except Ukraine reporting an attack repelled at Paraskoviivka a couple days ago.
I'd say there is a decent chance that Ukraine is letting Wagner over-extend itself ahead of a local-level counteroffensive utilizing several brigades.
The biggest question - are Ukraine's partners truly running out of gear to transfer? If that is the case, then Russia's attrition strategy in Ukraine starts to look a bit smarter. Especially as American politicians are now sending dangerous signals of disengagement ahead of the next election.
To those European politicians who think an EU defense force isn't necessary, think again. Trusting America is always a bad bet.