BLUF: The Ukrainian Ground Forces continued attacks in southern parts of the country and around Bakhmut, but the results of these actions were minimal. Ukrainians made no major confirmed gains as battles in these areas continue to be attritional. The likelihood of a major Ukrainian breakthrough is minimal as Kyiv’s forces lack the momentum to push through Russian defensive lines.
Sad. Ukraine taking a few more towns, or Bakhmut, in this offensive won't really accomplish much. Some of these problems seem fixable. E.g., you can give Bradleys to the more experienced units. Send new units to go defend. Send experienced units to go do six more weeks of intensive training on synchronizing attacks. Presumably allies too will get the message that Ukraine needs more breaching equipment. Also, it does appear the few long-range Storm Shadows that Ukraine has used has been used rather effectively -- they are hitting high-value command posts, ammo depots, and infrastructure.
My only hope is that Ukraine purposefully struck a negative tone among a group of visitors they'd know are read in Washington in order to (1) get more weapons, and (2) start a PR campaign for the offensive ending so perhaps they can restart an offensive later with a bit of an element of surprise.
Still, the consequences of this failure to really not accomplish much of anything seem severe. Will a winter offensive really yield much better results? Russia can dig in more in key areas. Lay even more mines. As you say, F-16s are not thought to be game changers. Seems now Ukraine needs to negotiate peace in return for giving up the south. They won't do this so from now on kind of looks like an endless, pointless war. One likely to simply kind of fizzle out near current de facto borders over a period of years with no real peace.
When speaking of Bakhmut, depends what timeframe we are talking about. Given the current pace of advances I dont think they can encircle the city by the end of summer.
As for giving Bradleys to move experienced troops, I don't think six weeks will cut it. You certainly cannot learn to coordinate attacks at scale within this period. Maybe we Ukraine's foreign partners should already start thinking about counteroffensive 2024?
As for your hope, yes, it is a possibility, but a very small one. We really had a lot of meetings with people who did not each other and the narrative was the same everywhere.
Sad. Ukraine taking a few more towns, or Bakhmut, in this offensive won't really accomplish much. Some of these problems seem fixable. E.g., you can give Bradleys to the more experienced units. Send new units to go defend. Send experienced units to go do six more weeks of intensive training on synchronizing attacks. Presumably allies too will get the message that Ukraine needs more breaching equipment. Also, it does appear the few long-range Storm Shadows that Ukraine has used has been used rather effectively -- they are hitting high-value command posts, ammo depots, and infrastructure.
My only hope is that Ukraine purposefully struck a negative tone among a group of visitors they'd know are read in Washington in order to (1) get more weapons, and (2) start a PR campaign for the offensive ending so perhaps they can restart an offensive later with a bit of an element of surprise.
Still, the consequences of this failure to really not accomplish much of anything seem severe. Will a winter offensive really yield much better results? Russia can dig in more in key areas. Lay even more mines. As you say, F-16s are not thought to be game changers. Seems now Ukraine needs to negotiate peace in return for giving up the south. They won't do this so from now on kind of looks like an endless, pointless war. One likely to simply kind of fizzle out near current de facto borders over a period of years with no real peace.
Insight Prediction odds now of cutting the land bridge by the end of the summer campaign season now at 3-6%. https://insightprediction.com/m/154445/will-ukraine-sever-the-land-bridge-to-crimea-by-september-30th-2023
When speaking of Bakhmut, depends what timeframe we are talking about. Given the current pace of advances I dont think they can encircle the city by the end of summer.
As for giving Bradleys to move experienced troops, I don't think six weeks will cut it. You certainly cannot learn to coordinate attacks at scale within this period. Maybe we Ukraine's foreign partners should already start thinking about counteroffensive 2024?
As for your hope, yes, it is a possibility, but a very small one. We really had a lot of meetings with people who did not each other and the narrative was the same everywhere.