I remember when we were in Kherson Oblast in October 22 and heard with our own ears that Russians were conducting counterbattery strikes. At that time Theiner wrote that Russian counterbattery fire decreased to zero in Kherson. I replied this was not true and he blocked me. There are better accounts to follow for sure.
But, Ukraine needs to maintain strategic reserves in case Russia develops a operational-level attack. Russia has them too. But it does not mean that these forces will be used during ongoing battles.
They need to have something strategically placed as the risks of putting everything into the battle is too great. But last week they committed operational reserves, which in itself is very significant.
Yesterday, Ukraine hit an oil tanker in the Black Sea. For me, the way to really bring Russia to the negotiating table would be to hit oil and gas pipelines with drones. (Aren't most of these above-ground? And go on for thousands of kms?) Why have they not done this yet?
My first thought is for political reasons. You hit the gas pipelines into China, and China may well supply more aid to Russia. Possibly, they may have hit Nordstream. But, I was thinking about, why not hit a smaller gas pipeline that feeds Moscow or St. Petersburg instead? Your thoughts on the probability of this strategy?
The biggest problem is the sustainment of such an approach. To inflict continuous damages on Russian oil and gas infrastructure, Ukrainians would need to conduct attacks regularly, and I don’t think they have the capacity to do it in Russia proper.
What they can do, however, is to focus on the Black Sea. Attacks on oil export ports could decrease Russian cash inflows (which fuels the war economy) and increase insurance premia for western oil tankers operating out of Black Sea ports. This could hit oil exports out of the Black Sea.
This paragraph seems incomplete, however: "Equally important are barrels for the guns. A high rate of fire means faster wear down and the necessity to provide a barrel replacement. This will be another choke point. The Ukrainian focus on artillery strikes"
Also, this guy on twitter, Thomas C. Theiner, keeps writing about extra Ukrainian reserves available to enter the fight. BS?
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1689297620601044997
I remember when we were in Kherson Oblast in October 22 and heard with our own ears that Russians were conducting counterbattery strikes. At that time Theiner wrote that Russian counterbattery fire decreased to zero in Kherson. I replied this was not true and he blocked me. There are better accounts to follow for sure.
But, Ukraine needs to maintain strategic reserves in case Russia develops a operational-level attack. Russia has them too. But it does not mean that these forces will be used during ongoing battles.
Yes, wouldn't be wise for Ukraine to use everything, or even almost everything, particularly given the potential for another Russian mobilization.
They need to have something strategically placed as the risks of putting everything into the battle is too great. But last week they committed operational reserves, which in itself is very significant.
Wow! Yes, for sure.
Excellent writeup and analysis, as always.
Yesterday, Ukraine hit an oil tanker in the Black Sea. For me, the way to really bring Russia to the negotiating table would be to hit oil and gas pipelines with drones. (Aren't most of these above-ground? And go on for thousands of kms?) Why have they not done this yet?
My first thought is for political reasons. You hit the gas pipelines into China, and China may well supply more aid to Russia. Possibly, they may have hit Nordstream. But, I was thinking about, why not hit a smaller gas pipeline that feeds Moscow or St. Petersburg instead? Your thoughts on the probability of this strategy?
The biggest problem is the sustainment of such an approach. To inflict continuous damages on Russian oil and gas infrastructure, Ukrainians would need to conduct attacks regularly, and I don’t think they have the capacity to do it in Russia proper.
What they can do, however, is to focus on the Black Sea. Attacks on oil export ports could decrease Russian cash inflows (which fuels the war economy) and increase insurance premia for western oil tankers operating out of Black Sea ports. This could hit oil exports out of the Black Sea.
Good write-up, thank you.
This paragraph seems incomplete, however: "Equally important are barrels for the guns. A high rate of fire means faster wear down and the necessity to provide a barrel replacement. This will be another choke point. The Ukrainian focus on artillery strikes"
Thank you! Corrected.