Key takeaways from last week’s developments: Last week did not deliver strategic or operational changes in Ukraine; According to the Ukrainian General Staff data, the number of Russian artillery strikes hovered around 90 last week. However, the latter half of the week saw a decline. It remains to be seen whether this is a temporary reduction or a beginning of a new trend;
Big unknown remains whether Russia has learned how to move and mass forces without leaving a big satellite visible footprint. Can they disperse fighting units near to the border in Russian territory under martial law then mass fast enough to make a push in a weak spot?
Regardless, phase shift in the nature and possibly focus of the fighting appears imminent. Will be very strange if Russia doesn't attempt some kind of surprise.
Were I in the RU position, I'd at least try a strike well away from Donbas, and if it has any success, throw follow-on forces into the fight. Bashing straight through Ukraine's lines... it's just too costly, even for Moscow.
Thank you for all the google maps references in the text, makes it much easier to follow!
Big unknown remains whether Russia has learned how to move and mass forces without leaving a big satellite visible footprint. Can they disperse fighting units near to the border in Russian territory under martial law then mass fast enough to make a push in a weak spot?
Regardless, phase shift in the nature and possibly focus of the fighting appears imminent. Will be very strange if Russia doesn't attempt some kind of surprise.
Were I in the RU position, I'd at least try a strike well away from Donbas, and if it has any success, throw follow-on forces into the fight. Bashing straight through Ukraine's lines... it's just too costly, even for Moscow.